Team GB 2024 Olympics medal predictions: Hard to match scale of recent successes

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Under 16.5 Team GB gold medals
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Under 62.5 Team GB medals
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Olympics Team GB medal predictions

Team GB have enjoyed some fantastic successes in the last four editions of the Olympic Summer Games, finishing in the top four in the medal table each time. 

More fantastic individual moments of glory should be in the offing in Paris over the next three weeks as 206 nations compete in 329 events covering 32 sports.

However, it seems realistic to expect the Great Britain team to take a slight step back on their recent highs while still landing an impressive haul of medals.

Team GB posted single-figure gold-medal tallies in every edition of the games between the previous Paris Olympics in 1924 and the team's nadir of taking only one gold in the Atlanta games in 1996 through the Redgrave and Pinsent coxless pair.

They bagged 11 golds in Sydney and nine in Athens before taking a major leap forward in Beijing in 2008, with 19 golds and 51 medals overall.

Those figures were blown out of the water with 29 golds at home at London 2012 and 65 medals overall, while Rio 2016 was comparable with 27 golds and 67 medals.

Tokyo brought a small reduction in the medals tallies with 22 golds and 64 total medals and that pattern could continue.

Bookmakers have set the GB lines at a more modest 16.5 for golds and 62.5 for medals and taking the unders on both could pay.

For a start the team is smaller this time with 327 athletes compared to 376 in Tokyo and a whopping 541 in London 12 years ago.

While there are indeed a host of British performers who head to Paris with high hopes of gold, very few are favourites to win their events.

The best chances according to bookmakers - for events that are priced up so far - are middle-distance runner Keely Hodgkinson, who is 1-3 with bet365 to win the women's 800 metres, while the eventing team are 30-100 for gold and Ros Canter is 4-1 favourite for the individual event.

Triathlete Alex Yee is 5-4 favourite with bet365 to win the men's event but many of Britain's other brightest hopes are only second or third in the betting. Josh Kerr is 2-1 second-favourite for the men's 1500m behind rival Jakob Ingebrigtsen, who is 8-15, while Joe Clarke is 7-2 second favourite for the men's K1 canoeing.

Swimmer Adam Peaty is 5-4 for gold in the men's 100m breaststroke, but China's Haiyang Qin is the evens favourite, while Tom Daley has a great shout of adding to his medal collection but he and diving partner Nick Williams are 7-1 shots behind 1-12 favourites China in the men's 10m synchronised platform event.

UK Sport’s director of performance Dr Kate Baker has said she is confident the British team can finish in the range of 50 to 70 medals, but a majority of that assessment falls in the under 62.5 category and that looks the way to go.

The absence of an official Russia team for political reasons could help, but 32 Russian and Belarusian athletes are competing under the banner of Individual Neutral Athletes including tennis stars Mirra Andreeva and Daniil Medvedev.

Ireland look set to have their best ever Olympics medal haul with contenders such as swimmer Daniel Wiffen, rowers Paul O’Donovan and Fintan McCarthy in the lightweight sculls and star golfer Rory McIlroy plus a strong boxing team, while Rhasidat Adeleke could provide a rare athletics success in the 400m.

The Irish team claimed four medals last time - two in rowing and two in boxing - but the markets already anticipate a record haul with the total medals line set well above the six they won in London 2012 at 7.5.

Ireland are evens to have over 2.5 golds with Ladbrokes - a figure they have beaten only once, when winning three in 1996.

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