NFL Week 11 predictions, odds, TV details and betting tips: Beware of Mahomes the underdog

Where to watch

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sky Sports NFL, 6pm Sunday

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Sky Sports NFL & Main Event, 9.25pm Sunday

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers
Sky Sports NFL & Main Event, 1.20am Sunday night

Best bets for NFL Week 11

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
3pts 20-23 BoyleSports

Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
2pts 10-11 general

Los Angeles Chargers
1pt 4-5 general

Atlanta Falcons
1pt 11-10 general

Green Bay Packers -4.5
2pts 20-23 bet365

Under 43.5 points in Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots
1pt 10-11 general

George Pickens over 65.5 receiving yards in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
1pt 10-11 bet365

NFL Week 11 acca predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 vs Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers to beat Chicago Bears
Kansas City Chiefs +2.5 vs Buffalo Bills
San Francisco 49ers to beat Seattle Seahawks 

Pays 6.27/1 with bet365

This week's NFL TV game predictions

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers predictions

The top two teams in the AFC North clash in a key NFL contest on Sunday. The Steelers (7-2) are just ahead of the Ravens (7-3) heading into their first divisional game of the season, with five more to come in their final eight games. 

Pittsburgh's successful 2024 season continued with a dramatic 28-27 win in Washington last week, when quarterback Russell Wilson dropped a perfect long pass into Mike Williams' arms for the winning touchdown

Wilson has won all three of his starts since taking over from Justin Fields, with six touchdown passes and only one interception and appears to have lifted a previously limited offence to a new level. 

The Steelers’ defence remains one of the best in the NFL, ranking second in points allowed per game at 16.2.

The Ravens held off the Bengals in the Thursday game of Week 11, winning 35-34, and remain one of the top offences in the league with Lamar Jackson at quarterback and Derrick Henry at running back. However, Jackson is just 1-3 against the Steelers, who have won seven of the teams' last eight meetings, including both last season's games by the same 17-10 scoreline.

Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 62-35-4 against the handicap as an underdog in his career, and the Steelers look a strong pick as the home underdog in this clash.

Best bet for Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5
3pts 20-23 BoyleSports

Verdict by Luke Lindholm

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills predictions

The AFC showdown between Kansas and Buffalo on Sunday is one of the biggest games of the season so far with the teams currently filling the first two places in the conference standings. 

The Chiefs remained unbeaten at 9-0 by blocking a field-goal attempt on the final play against the Broncos last week to win 16-14, while the Bills are 8-2 after winning five straight games by an average of more than 12 points.

With a 4-0 home record, the Bills are favourites for this game but Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has excelled when his team have been made the underdogs, going 12-1-1 against the handicap and winning 11 of those games. 

The Chiefs have been getting themselves out of plenty of scrapes this season and have now won the last nine games in which they have trailed by seven or more points.

They shouldn't be able to do that forever, but the Bills are dealing with some key offensive injuries, with rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid both ruled out, while Amari Cooper is set to play with a cast on his injured wrist. 

This could be another tight meeting between these teams, whose last three meetings have been decided by four or fewer points, while the previous clash went to overtime, so take the points with Kansas City.

Best bet for Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs +2.5
2pts 10-11 general

Verdict by Caleb Wilfinger

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers predictions

Sunday's late game is tough to assess and the key battle looks to be between Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and the Chargers' pass defence.

Burrow hasn't faced a unit as strong as this all year, but the home side haven’t faced many tests as tough as this week's challenge either. 

The Chargers have an excellent defence, leading the league in points allowed per game (13.1) and ranking in the top five in many other categories. New head coach Jim Harbaugh has his team fired-up and they are playing aggressive and disciplined football. 

Burrow has thrown 24 touchdown passes and just four interceptions, but he continues to be let down by the Bengals' struggling defence - last week he had 428 passing yards and four touchdowns but still suffered his sixth defeat in ten games. His chemistry with wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase has been phenomenal and Chase had 264 receiving yards and three TDs against the Ravens, while Tee Higgins should return from a quad injury.

The Chargers offense should also prosper against the weak Cincinnati defence, though, and the Bengals could suffer another frustrating defeat on this long road trip.

Best bet for Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers
1pt 4-5 general

Verdict by Chris Farley

Phil Agius's Week 11 best bets

Best money line bet

Atlanta Falcons
1pt 11-10 general

The Falcons have only themselves to blame for allowing the Saints to snap their seven-game losing streak against them last week. They lost 20-17 despite gaining 181 rushing yards and 103 more total yards than their hosts. Three missed field goals sealed their fate but they remain a capable side and could bounce back with a road win in Denver. 

The Broncos' have impressed defensively this season but are coming off two tough games against the Ravens and Chiefs. The Falcons have a varied attack and may be able to outscore their hosts in this one.

Best handicap bet

Green Bay Packers -4.5
2pts 20-23 bet365

The Packers' record against the Bears is one of the best head-to-head sequences in the NFL as they have won the last ten meetings with their NFC North rivals and 25 of the last 28 clashes.

The Bears fired their offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this week in a bid to arrest their slide after three successive defeats in which they have scored just 27 total points while quarterback Caleb Williams has been sacked 15 times in the last two games.

Green Bay will be fresh coming out of their bye week and the Packers look to have a strong chance of extending their streak of success against the Bears.

Best points bet

Under 43.5 points in Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots
1pt 10-11 general

The Patriots rank last in the league in offensive yards per game and 31st of 32 in points per game at 16 per outing. Their defence also makes for low-scoring encounters and last week they held the Bears to just three points. 

The Rams have more offensive talent, but managed only 15 points at home to the Dolphins on Monday and now have to make a long cross-country trip on a short week of preparation.

Best prop bet

George Pickens over 65.5 receiving yards
1pt 10-11 bet365

The Baltimore secondary had absolutely no answer for Bengals star Ja'Marr Chase last week as he averaged 24 yards per reception and caught 11 passes last week and Pittsburgh's George Pickens could also prosper against them.

Pickens needs only just over a quarter of Chase's tally to go over on his receiving yards line, which he has bettered in each of his last three outings with totals of 111, 74 and 91 yards, with one reception of at least 34 yards in each of those games.

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