NFL Boxing Day Saturday predictions, betting preview and free picks

Free NFL picks, best bets and analysis for the Boxing Day games in Week 16 of the 2020 NFL season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Where to watch

Sky Sports NFL, 6pm Saturday

Best bet

Over 54 points
1pt 10-11 general

Match preview

Tampa Bay should make no mistake in a crucial game for their NFC playoff prospects against Detroit in the first fixture of the NFL's Boxing Day triple-header.

The Buccaneers have not been the most consistent side this season - they scored 46 points at Carolina a week after managing only three against New Orleans last month - but all five of their defeats came against teams still in playoff contention and the Lions are not in that category.

Detroit have lost six of their last eight games and were walloped 46-25 by Tennessee last week. Indeed, betting on a high-scoring game looks the best option on this contest - the Lions' last four games have produced points totals of 66, 64, 55 and 71 points

Both teams have plenty of offensive weapons but are suspect defensively and the visitors have injury concerns over starting cornerback Carlton Davis and safety Antoine Winfield Jr.

Running back Leonard Fournette has a point to prove if he gets the start due to an injury to Ronald Jones, and it all adds up to another high-scoring contest at Ford Field.

Key stats

• Detroit have conceded an average of 31.1 points per game this season.
• Tampa Bay have won five of their last six road games.
• Detroit's last four games have produced totals of 66, 64, 55 and 71 points.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Where to watch

Sky Sports NFL, 9.30pm Saturday

Best bet

Arizona -4.5
1pt 10-11 Betfair

Match preview

San Francisco started this season with high hopes of returning to the Super Bowl, a defence that was the envy of the league and a mesmerising rushing attack. But they are limping towards the end of the campaign with a 5-9 record and their third-stringer starting at quarterback.

Expect no respite for the injury-hit 49ers as they take on an Arizona team who have little room for error as they head into Week 16 in the seventh and final playoff spot.

The 49ers lost starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo to an ankle injury in November after making a 4-3 start but they have lost six of their last seven games, even though head coach Kyle Shanahan summoned up all his power to coax a win over the Rams out of them in Week 12.

Now back-up QB Nick Mullens is also sidelined so CJ Beathard starts and he has a tough task against a Cardinals side who have got back on track with wins over the Giants and Eagles since a worrying three-game losing run.

San Francisco were seven-point favourites when the Cardinals beat them 24-20 in California on the opening day of the season, which shows how far expectations have fallen for this week's visitors.

Key stats

• San Francisco have covered the handicap in only one of their last seven games.
• The points total has gone over in each of Arizona's last five home games.
• Arizona have won five of their last six home games against San Francisco.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

Where to watch

Sky Sports NFL, 1.15am Saturday night

Best bet

Miami -2.5
1pt 9-10 Paddy Power

Match preview

Miami are in the thick of a fierce fight for the AFC playoff places and they should stay on course with a win over the struggling Raiders.

Las Vegas looked well on track for a post-season berth when they moved to 6-3 with a 37-12 win over Denver in Week Ten. But they have lost four of their five games since and last week's results after their Thursday defeat by the Chargers effectively ended their hopes.

Defensive issues have been at the heart of their slump and coordinator Paul Guenther was fired after their 44-27 loss to Indianapolis. There was little sign of improvement on that front in their 30-27 overtime loss to the Chargers and they continue to be hampered by injuries.

Quarterback Derek Carr is hoping to be passed fit but back-up Marcus Mariota offered a new dimension after Carr limped off last week and would not necessarily detract from their chances if required to start.

The Dolphins have leaned heavily on their defensive prowess to win while rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa finds his feet and it was impressive that they scored a victory over New England last week as Bill Belichick has a history of befuddling young passers.

The Raiders on top form would be just the kind of team to put a spoke in the wheels of Miami's playoff challenge but the handicap line is small enough to side with the Dolphins.

Key stats

• Miami have covered the handicap in nine of their last ten games.
• Las Vegas have lost four of their last five games.
• The total points line has been exceeded in the teams' last six meetings.

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