Miami Grand Prix qualifying predictions and Formula 1 betting tips

Free Formula 1 tips, best bets and analysis for the F1 Miami Grand Prix qualifying on Saturday.

Where to watch

Practice three Sky Sports F1 6pm Saturday
Qualifying Sky Sports F1 9pm Saturday

Best bet

Under 16.5 classified drivers
1pt 11-10 general

Already advised

Ferrari qualifying winning carMay 5
2pts Evens

Preview

Formula 1 is taking a step into the unknown with the inaugural Miami Grand Prix and two messy practice sessions on Friday gave little indication of what kind of race to expect.

Time on track and data from the Miami International Autodrome was limited largely by two accidents, Haas’s Valtteri Bottas hitting the barriers in the morning and Carlos Sainz of Ferrari repeating that unwanted trick in the afternoon.

When the drivers were able to get out, Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc set the fastest time in first practice before finishing runner-up to Mercedes’ George Russell in practice two.

For the first time this season, Mercedes look ready to muscle their way into Ferrari and Red Bull’s duel for dominance having appeared to solve some of the problems with their car that had badly hampered them through the first four rounds.

Seven-time world champion Lewis Hamilton didn’t have as much success as his team mate, ending Friday 0.241 seconds slower than Russell, but Mercedes will hope they are heading in the right direction.

Despite that improved showing, layers don’t rate Mercedes’ chances in qualifying, pricing Russell at 12-1 to snatch pole on Saturday, with Leclerc 6-5 favourite with Boyles.

World champion Max Verstappen is sandwiched between the pair in the betting for qualifying and represents something of an unknown.

The Dutch driver narrowly avoided a major shunt when clipping a wall but it did result in him missing most of practice one before technical issues plagued him in second practice and resulted in him failing to set a time.

The only consolations for Red Bull after more mechanical problems was Verstappen being third fastest in first practice, while team mate Sergio Perez proved to be marginally quicker than Ferrari and Mercedes during the race simulations in the afternoon.

Verstappen will hope to get significantly more time on the track in practise three ahead of qualifying but Red Bull’s reliability - Verstappen has had two DNFs this year - remains a significant concern.

With Verstappen among a number of drivers to have had problems on Friday, it’s shaping up to be a chaotic weekend and Red Bull principal Christian Horner comparing the Miami Autodrome to Saudi Arabia’s Jeddah Circuit brings up memories of incident-packed races in the Middle East.

No more than 15 cars have finished the first two editions of the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix and using that as an indicator of what to expect at the newest venue on F1's calendar, keeping the under in classified finishers on side heading into race day looks a strong option.

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