Spanish Grand Prix qualifying betting tips and F1 predictions: Sainz a value selection to take pole in home race

Where to watch the Spanish Grand Prix

Practice three & Qualifying
Sky Sports F1, 11.30am & 3pm Saturday

Race 
​Sky Sports F1, 2pm Sunday

Best bet

Carlos Sainz fastest qualifier
1pt e-w 10-1 bet365, Paddy Power

Spanish Grand Prix qualifying predictions

Max Verstappen has drifted from 1-2 to 4-5 to win the Spanish Grand Prix after an unconvincing practice day at Barcelona and he can be opposed at around the same price to be the fastest qualifier.

Verstappen was on pole at the first seven races of the season but Ferrari's Charles Leclerc and George Russell of Mercedes have started at the front at the last two rounds in Monaco and Canada. The world champion matched Russell's time to one-thousandth of a second in Montreal, so it's not as if his one-lap pace has fallen off a cliff, but he no longer seems to enjoy the huge advantage he has so often had over the past couple of seasons.

The Dutch driver was just 0.024 seconds off the leading time of Lando Norris in first practice but then only fifth in the afternoon session, albeit just 0.240 seconds behind the leading time of Lewis Hamilton.

Barcelona should be one of the tracks where the aerodynamic prowess of Verstappen's Red Bull is best showcased, so the fact that he has yet to stand out at such a familiar track is more concerning than his recent issues at less conventional circuits.

Ferrari have taken an updated car to Spain and Carlos Sainz was the driver to make the most of it on Friday, placing third in the morning and a close second in the second session, just 0.022 off Hamilton's time.

With McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes all looking capable of throwing down a challenge to Red Bull these days, the 10-1 for Sainz to be fastest qualifier in his home race (with two each-way places at a third the odds) looks a value bet.

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