Spanish Grand Prix betting tips and F1 predictions: Norris has pace to hold off charging champion

Where to watch the Spanish Grand Prix

Sky Sports F1, 2pm Sunday

Best bets

Lando Norris to win theSpanish Grand Prix
2pts 6-4 general

Oscar Piastri podium finish
1pt 11-1 Hills

Spanish Grand Prix predictions

Lando Norris scored his second career pole position in qualifying for the Spanish Grand Prix, and the McLaren man is the pick to convert that into his second race victory.

Norris pipped world champion Max Verstappen by just 0.020 seconds but the Dutchman had been helped by a slipstream from his Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez.

Verstappen won’t be too disappointed – he holds a commanding 56-point lead in the championship and has won on the last four occasions he started from second on the grid, including in Canada last time.

Constantly changing weather contributed to a classic in Montreal and there is again a mixed forecast for this afternoon, although the greatest chance of rain is before the race.

Norris felt victory was possible in Canada, where he lost the lead due to a poor strategy decision during a safety-car period. 

That saw him finish second for the third time in the last five races, and with a little better luck he could be sitting on three career victories right now.

Barcelona is not the best track at which to start from pole position, as it’s possible to outdrag rivals on the long run to turn one. However, in three of the last four years the pole-sitter has maintained the lead on the first lap.

Norris’s advantage in qualifying would have been greater had Verstappen not been given a tow by Perez, and with the McLaren consistently quick in race trim, and strongest of all in the fast corners, Verstappen could struggle to overhaul him.

There is a great scrap for a podium in prospect after 0.035 seconds covered both Mercedes and both Ferraris in the final part of qualifying.

Lewis Hamilton holds the upper hand after pipping teammate George Russell by 0.002 seconds, but the first corner could play a big part.

Don’t count out Norris’s McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri from getting involved in the podium fight.

The Australian starts ninth after making a mistake on his fastest qualifying lap, but he should be able to quickly dispatch the two Alpines starting directly ahead as they have struggled for top speed this year.

Piastri’s sole top-three finish of the season came in Monaco, but he has finished fourth three times this year.

Barcelona has historically been a tough track for overtaking but after modifications to the final sector there was much more action last season, and at a big price it could be worth taking a punt on Piastri. 

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