Dutch Grand Prix betting tips and F1 predictions: Verstappen hoping to bounce back in home race

Where to watch the Dutch Grand Prix on Sunday

Sky Sports F1, 2pm Sunday

Best bet

Max Verstappen to win the Dutch Grand Prix
2pts 15-8 Hills

The F1 season resumes in the Netherlands this weekend and the 2024 world championship has been a very different competition from the one that was expected.

Max Verstappen won 19 of the 22 races in a dominant 2023 campaign and only three drivers stood on the top step of the podium all season, but this year there have already been seven individual winners.

The champion has not won any of the last four races - his coldest spell of form since his pre-championship days in 2020 - and despite winning half of the 14 races so far, Verstappen is a bigger price now to win his fourth successive title at 1-4 than he was at the start of the season when he was just 1-6.

The good news for the 26-year-old Dutchman is that his rivals have shared the spoils around in the races when he has missed out. Lewis Hamilton is the only other driver to have won two races, while Lando Norris, Oscar Piastri, Charles Leclerc, Carlos Sainz and George Russell each have one victory.

Because of that, Verstappen still holds a healthy 78-point lead in the championship - equivalent to around three wins - and as long as his form doesn't fall off a cliff entirely and he remains a podium contender at least, it's hard to see the field getting to him.

Norris is no bigger than 7-1, but his breakthrough win in the Miami Grand Prix in May remains his only race victory, even though he has had the fastest car for several race weekends.

A combination of poor strategy and tough breaks, such as his collision with Verstappen when they were battling for the lead in Austria, have prevented the British driver from substantially reducing the gap to the champion and he has contributed to his own frustrations with a series of slow starts in recent races.

Norris is 1-25 to win the championship without Verstappen, having opened at 9-2 and touched 40-1 with bet365 before his second place in the Chinese Grand Prix in April. His McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri is just 14-1 in that market, having been available at 500-1 in May.

Verstappen's team-mate Sergio Perez was 11-8 to be best of the rest again after hanging on for second place last season but is out to 500-1 after slumping to seventh place in the standings.

The poor contribution from Perez means McLaren are now 4-7 to win the constructors' championship for the first time since 1998, having been 14-1 fourth favourites at the start of the season. Red Bull still lead by 42 points but are available at 11-8 to keep the team crown, having gone off at 1-6.

The good news for Verstappen is that the action resumes with his home race at Zandvoort, where no other driver has won since the event was brought back in 2021. 

The world champion has won all three Dutch Grands Prix since then from pole position and he looks a decent price at 15-8 to get back to winning ways in front of a fervent home crowd.

Norris is the favourite for this race in places but has a poor record at the quirky, narrow track, which features tricky cambers, while Red Bull have a set-up that they know works well which looks to be a useful advantage.

If Verstappen struggles this week, it will be game on for his title rivals, but a resurgent performance seems more likely. The champion was fourth in Belgium before the break but had been clearly fastest in qualifying and may well have won but for a ten-place grid penalty for exceeding his engine allocation for the year.

He looks the early race value as the cars get back on the track for practice at Zandvoort on Friday. Practice and qualifying may well be disrupted by rain, but better conditions are forecast for race day.

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