Belgian Grand Prix betting tips and F1 predictions: Norris can make most of Verstappen penalty

Where to watch the Belgian Grand Prix on Sunday

Sky Sports F1, 2pm Sunday

Best bets

Lando Norris to win the race
1pt 5-2 Hills

Lewis Hamilton podium finish
1pt 5-4 bet365

Belgian Grand Prix qualifying predictions

A wet qualifying session has thrown up an unusual grid and the prospect of a thrilling Belgian Grand Prix.

Max Verstappen is favourite to win the race for the fourth year in a row after storming to pole position by more than six-tenths of a second.

However, having exceeded his allowance of power unit parts for the season, the Red Bull ace will take a penalty and start 11th on the grid.

That hasn't stopped him the last two years, as the world champion claimed easy wins from sixth on the grid in 2023 and 14th in 2022. But the days of F1 being a Verstappen one-man show seem like a distant memory as the Dutchman has not won any of the last three races. Indeed, he has managed just one podium in that time - a second place at Silverstone which owed a lot to smart strategy.

Verstappen is running a high-downforce setup to help him while running in traffic in the early part of the race, and that gave him a huge advantage in the wet during qualifying.

However, it is forecast to be a dry race, and too much drag could hurt him while fighting the McLarens and Mercedes around the super-quick Spa-Francorchamps circuit.

Verstappen's demotion means Charles Leclerc will start from the front for Ferrari with the other Red Bull of Sergio Perez alongside, after both drivers left their recent form behind.

McLaren have been the fastest and most consistent team for most of the season now, and Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri line up fourth and fifth.

That is further back than ideal, but certainly close enough judging from their long-run pace on Friday.

A run of frustrating races has seen Norris pick up four second places since his debut victory in Miami, but under only slightly different circumstances he could have won seven of the last eight Grands Prix.

The McLaren is quick in a straight line and Spa is one of the easier circuits for overtaking, so a case can be made that Norris ought to still be favourite for the race, as he was before qualifying.

Mercedes took a raft of upgrades to Spa, but have switched back to their old floor after the new one did not work as expected.

The previous spec worked very well at Silverstone, however, where Lewis Hamilton ended a two-and-a-half-year winless streak, and the seven-time world champion has looked refreshed by the victory.

He finished an excellent third in Hungary last week, keeping his tyres in good shape despite a highly abrasive track, which is again the case this weekend.

Hamilton, who starts third, is worth a bet to at least maintain that position at the finish.

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