Italy v Spain predictions: Impressive Azzurri should punish Wembley opponents

Free Euro 2020 football tips, best bets and analysis for Italy v Spain in Tuesday's first semi-final.

Where to watch

BBC One, 8pm Tuesday

Best bet

Italy
3pts 6-4 general

The Azzurri have been in ruthless form under Roberto Mancini while unconvincing Spain have had to play 120 minutes in the last 16 and the quarter-finals.

Team news

Italy
Leonardo Spinazzola (Achilles) is out of the tournament so Emerson Palmieri is likely to start at left-back. Right-back Alessandro Florenzi is fit again and pushing for a recall.

Spain
Pablo Sarabia (adductor) may only be fit enough for the bench so Dani Olmo should start on the left flank. Aymeric Laporte, who has played every minute of Spain's campaign, is set to keep his place in defence.

Match preview

Italy's least convincing performance of an impressive Euro 2020 campaign came against last-16 opponents Austria at Wembley but they should relish their return to London for Tuesday's first semi-final.

The Azzurri are well worth backing to defeat a Spain side who have stumbled their way through to the last four.

La Roja needed penalties to edge past ten-man Switzerland in the quarter-finals, having also been taken to extra-time by Croatia in the last 16.

They won that pulsating, error-strewn tie 5-3 in the end but can expect no such defensive generosity from Italy, who beat Turkey, Switzerland and Wales to nil in Group A.

That set up the Wembley clash with Austria, who threatened the Azzurri's 30-game unbeaten run before a tight offside call ruled out Marko Arnautovic's second-half header.

Roberto Mancini's men held their nerve to win 2-1 after extra time and repeated that scoreline in Friday's quarter-final against Belgium.

Italy were well backed in the days leading up to the finals despite doubts over the quality of their opponents during a run of almost three years without a defeat.

Victory over Belgium, number one in the Fifa rankings, should have convinced any remaining sceptics and Italy were good value for the win after wonderful first-half strikes from Nicolo Barella and Lorenzo Insigne.

A soft penalty, converted by Romelu Lukaku gave Belgium hope, and the Azzurri were grateful for a goal-saving block by Leonardo Spinazzola from Lukaku.

Inspirational left-back Spinazzola suffered an Achilles injury late in the game, ruling him out of the tournament, but Italy's success under Mancini is a triumph of the group rather than individuals.

From the tournament opener against Turkey, the Azzurri have looked slick, organised and energetic and they should be too strong for a Spain side who appear talented but rudderless.

Wasteful finishing cost La Roja in Group E draws with Sweden and Poland before a much-needed 5-0 win over dismal Slovakia, who scored two own goals.

Spain blew a 3-1 lead against Croatia and a 1-0 advantage against the Swiss, who took them to a shootout despite playing with ten men from the 77th minute onwards, and that soft underbelly could be exposed by Italy.

The Spanish strikers are low on confidence despite reaching the last four, their defence failed to keep a clean sheet in March's World Cup qualifiers against Greece, Georgia and Kosovo, and Mancini's men should fancy their chances of ending La Roja's run.

Key stat

Italy have scored the first goal of the match in 16 of their last 17 internationals.

Inside info

Italy

Penalty taker Ciro Immobile/Jorginho
Free-kick wizard Lorenzo Insigne
Set-piece aerial threat Leonardo Bonucci
Card magnet Marco Verratti

Spain

Penalty taker Alvaro Morata/Gerard Moreno
Free-kick wizardKoke
Set-piece aerial threatAymeric Laporte
Card magnetSergio Busquets

Lowdown

Venue Wembley Stadium, London
Fans allowed 60,000
Time Zone BST
Weather Damp and cloudy, 17C
FIFA rankings Italy (7), Spain (6)
Head to Head World Cup qualifying, September 2017 – Spain 3 Italy 0; World Cup qualifying, October 2016 – Italy 1 Spain 1; European Championships, June 2016 – Italy 2 Spain 0; Friendly, March 2016 – Italy 1 Spain 1; Friendly, March 2014 – Spain 1 Italy 0

Bet builder

Italy to win in 90 minutes
The Azzurri's well-balanced midfield can upset Spain's gameplan and they have the attacking tools to see off La Roja in normal time.

Over 9.5 corners
Both teams play with plenty of width and Spain have racked up 41 corners in five matches (two of which went to extra-time).

Jorginho over 54.5 passes
The Italy midfielder averages 75 completed passes per game at the Euros and even Spain may struggle to starve him of the ball.

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