Steve Palmer's US PGA Championship predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the US PGA Championship at Southern Hills - the second Major of the season.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Best bets

Scottie Scheffler
4pts each-way 12-1 Hills

Patrick Cantlay
2.5pts each-way 22-1 Hills

Shane Lowry
2pts each-way 30-1 Betfred

Cameron Young
1pt each-way 80-1 bet365

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Phil Mickelson will not be defending the US PGA title he won last year - the left-hander has opted to remain in the golfing wilderness as debate rages about the new Saudi-backed breakaway tour - but Tiger Woods is going to post again seeking a 16th Major victory.

Woods won the last Major held at Southern Hills (2007) and can be backed at 75-1 for this one. Aged 46 and still recovering from significant leg injuries, Woods will not be on the US PGA radar of serious punters. Preference is for a four-pronged attack on younger, fitter, stronger players at a long, punishing, windswept venue.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Scottie Scheffler 12-1

Jordan Spieth has been hogging the spotlight in the build-up to the US PGA Championship - the Byron Nelson runner-up finding form as he bids to complete a career Grand Slam - and Spieth-mania can help the world number one go quietly about his business. Scottie Scheffler is still the man to beat and any double-figure odds about the Masters champ are well worth taking.

Scheffler can move halfway towards a Grand Slam of his own by following his Augusta triumph with US PGA glory at Southern Hills. He has won four of his last seven tournaments as an individual - a strike-rate which means he should be emphatic US PGA favourite.

The market has it much tighter than it should be at the top.
Scheffler understandably struggled for focus in the Zurich Classic pairs event alongside Ryan Palmer in his first post-Augusta outing, then the Masters champion cruised through his hometown event in the AT&T Byron Nelson last week, carding four rounds in the 60s for 15th place with a cold putter. Aside from a triple-bogey at the 13th in round two, Scheffler's long-game looked in mint condition, particularly on approach to the greens.

The modern Scheffler is ultra-comfortable working his ball both ways, so the numerous doglegs at Southern Hills hold no fears for him, and he has described the layout as his favourite course. He won a college event at Southern Hills in 2015 and he loves the changes that have been made since. With more room off the tee since the redesign, the PGA venue suits him even more, and he carded a 64 in practice there at the start of this month.

Scheffler is teeing up only a four-hour drive from home this week. He slept in his own bed throughout the Byron Nelson - a perfect warm-up event - and he should be high on energy for Southern Hills. Back in Major competition, expect Scheffler to go up a level in terms of focus and intensity, and put his name on another prestigious leaderboard. He has finished in the top 20 in his last seven Majors.

Next best bet

Patrick Cantlay 22-1

The main threat to Scheffler this week may turn out to be the reigning FedEx Cup champion and PGA Tour Player of the Year. Patrick Cantlay is a six-time PGA Tour champion as an individual and he won the Zurich Classic pairs event alongside Xander Schauffele last time out.

Schauffele will be the first to admit the key to the Zurich success was Cantlay - a rock-solid operator with no statistical weakness. The Californian is technically strong in all departments and mentally he has never been better at the age of 30. Two playoff defeats this year would have dented weaker minds, but Cantlay bounced back from those near-misses by leading his team to silverware in the Zurich. This cool, calm, calculated character can go close to a maiden Major on Sunday.

Cantlay's US PGA record is consistent - 33-27-3-43-23 - and this is the first time he has teed up in the tournament as a Ryder Cup winner. He made a superb Cup debut in September, going unbeaten throughout and easily winning his singles match, and the natural next career step is a first Major.

Other selections

Shane Lowry 30-1

Cameron Young 80-1

The European challenge can be led by Shane Lowry, who has been in rock-solid form all year. The luckless Irishman finished runner-up in the Honda Classic in February as a sudden burst of heavy rain made the 72nd hole much tougher for him than his leaderboard rival, then he followed up with 13th place in the Players Championship and 12th spot in the Valspar.

Despite suffering a triple-bogey at the fourth hole of the final round, Lowry finished third in the Masters, and then occupied the same position in the RBC Heritage the following week. Even in the Zurich Classic, with his partner Ian Poulter playing poorly, Lowry led his team to 13th place. This is a Major champion whose game is in fantastic nick.

Lowry is fourth on the PGA Tour for strokes gained on approach, while he can always be relied upon to scramble well. His peers are often awe-struck by the magic hands which allow Lowry to salvage pars from spots that others would find impossible. With breeze forecast all week and everyone in the field missing lots of greens, Lowry's ability with wedge in hand counts for plenty.

US PGA form figures of 12-8-66-4 from the last four editions are encouraging for Lowry fans. He won the 2015 WGC at Firestone - a long, tree-lined, par-70 hosting a top-class field - and he was runner-up in the 2016 US Open. A second Major title for the 2019 Open hero on Sunday would come as no surprise.

Complete a four-pronged attack with Cameron Young, a rising star of the PGA Tour. The 25-year-old tied second in a top-class Genesis Invitational in February, then was third in the RBC Heritage last month and second in the Wells Fargo Championship the week before last. It seems only a matter of time before he becomes a PGA Tour champion - and the breakthrough could come this week.

Majors can be won by maidens. Ben Curtis got his first win in the Open in 2003, then Shaun Micheel did likewise a month later in the US PGA. Young is bursting with power, and the rest of his game seems to be improving fast, underlined by the fact he has contended on fiddly tracks like Harbour Town and TPC Potomac.

Keegan Bradley won the US PGA on his debut in 2011, then Collin Morikawa followed suit in 2020. Young, a two-time champion on the Korn Ferry Tour, is good value to do likewise.

For a full rundown of the US PGA Championship field, click here to read Steve's player-by-player guide

Southern Hills course guide

Course Southern Hills Country Club, Tulsa, Oklahoma
Prize money $12m ($2.16m to the winner)
Length 7,556 yards
Par 70 - two par-fives; 12 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 156 The cut Top 70 plus ties progress to round three
Highest-ranked players in the field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Jon Rahm (2), Collin Morikawa (3), Cameron Smith (4), Patrick Cantlay (5)

Playoff format A three-hole aggregate-score playoff, sudden-death thereafter

Course records- 72 holes 269 Nick Price (1994) 18 holes 63 Raymond Floyd (1982), Tiger Woods (2007)

Course winners taking part Tiger Woods

When to bet By 1pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Time difference Oklahoma is six hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Soudal Open 1 S Horsfield (22-1), T2 R Fox (25-1), Y Paul (80-1), T4 O Bekker (28-1), C Hanna (80-1), 6 A Meronk (22-1), T7 S Crocker (175-1), M Schneider (175-1); AT&T Byron Nelson 1 K-H Lee (110-1), 2 J Spieth (22-1), T3 H Matsuyama (30-1), S Munoz (70-1), T5 X Schauffele (22-1), R Palmer (110-1), J Thomas (14-1), 8 C Schwartzel (250-1), T9 P Malnati (250-1), D Riley (60-1), J Hahn (250-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview Southern Hills hosted the 2001 US Open, which was won by Retief Goosen, and the 2007 US PGA, which was won by Tiger Woods, but the course has changed dramatically since those Majors, with Gil Hanse completing a redesign in 2019. When Woods triumphed there, the course was extremely tight with heavy rough surrounding the greens. Hanse has made the track much more open, with generous targets off the tee, and there is no longer any rough around the greens. The putting surfaces have severe slopes at their edges, meaning mishit approaches are easily repelled off the green, far from the pin. The layout opens with four par-fours, with the 500-yard second a particularly tough early mission. The two par-fives are enormous - the 656-yard fifth and the 632-yard 13th. The par-threes range from 173 yards (the 11th) to 251 yards (the eighth). Three par-fours of 400 yards or less (the fourth, ninth and 17th) represent the best birdie chances

Story of last year Phil Mickelson saw off Brooks Koepka in a thrilling Sunday duel at Kiawah Island, South Carolina, becoming the oldest player to win a Major at 50 years of age.

Weather forecast There seems a significant advantage to being drawn early Thursday and late Friday, with strong winds expected from Thursday afternoon and all through Friday. Temperatures peak at 32C on Thursday afternoon, reaching a low of 12C on Sunday morning. Sunday seems set to be the only day without a strong breeze

Type of player suited to the challenge Accurate approach-play and sharp scrambling is probably the key to success. The targets on approach are small, with only the best shots holding the green, while the forecast for wind means everyone will be doing lots of recovery work around the dancefloors

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight The last 18 US PGA winners made the cut in their event immediately prior

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