Steve Palmer's US Open predictions, best bets and free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the US Open at The Country Club, Brookline, Massachusetts.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Best bets

Xander Schauffele
3pts each-way 25-1 Hills
Shane Lowry
2.5pts each-way 30-1 Betfred
Joaquin Niemann
2pts each-way 33-1 bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes
Tommy Fleetwood
1.5pts each-way 60-1 bet365
Taylor Montgomery
1pt each-way 350-1 bet365
Brandon Matthews
0.5pt each-way 1,000-1 Betfair

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The first two Majors of the season have been won by top-class Americans - Scottie Scheffler donning the Green Jacket at Augusta and Justin Thomas conjuring an incredible comeback at Southern Hills - but all the talk in the build-up to the US Open is of a little Northern Irishman.

Rory McIlroy won the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and the US PGA Championship in a golden fortnight in 2014 - and his army of fans are expecting a similar double after his Canadian Open glory on Sunday night. McIlroy-mania has sent the four-time Major champ to the top of the betting.

It may pay to swim against the tide. McIlroy hit a couple of hooked drives down the stretch in Canada, missed a couple of tiddlers, and his game was not in perfect nick. Brookline is much tougher than St George's and McIlroy's drought in the Majors may continue.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Xander Schauffele 25-1

Americans have won the last three Majors and Xander Schauffele could be set to continue that streak at Brookline. Six of the last seven US Opens have been won by a native and it is a tournament which Schauffele is superbly equipped to tackle.

For an event where bookmakers are throwing extra places at punters, Schauffele seems the best value each-way investment in the field. The cool Californian has never failed to place in the US Open, with ludicrously consistent results of 5-6-3-5-7 in the most challenging Major of them all. Schauffele relishes the grind of the US Open and freely admits his best hopes of success come on the most difficult courses.

This solid all-rounder has no obvious technical weakness and lies 12th on the PGA Tour for strokes-gained-on-approach, which seems the key attribute for Brookline. He played well there in the 2013 US Amateur and should do so again this week after a positive build-up.
The Olympic champion was thrilled to get back to winnings ways on the PGA Tour in the Zurich Classic pairs event in April. Patrick Cantlay was obviously a fantastic partner, but it was important for Schauffele to get some PGA Tour silverware back in his hands.

The AT&T Byron Nelson did not look like it was going to be a strong follow-up tournament for Schauffele a month ago - he was staring at a missed cut - but he went eight under par for his final 13 holes of round two, then followed up with a 65-61 weekend for fifth place. He spectacularly clicked into top gear and proved that the Schauffele A-game was back.

A tie for 13th in the US PGA and 18th spot at Memorial were further solid spins, before a week off to freshen up for the most mentally demanding event of the year. Schauffele has been handed a favourable set of tee-times for the first two rounds and can turn them into a Major breakthrough.

Next best bet

Shane Lowry 30-1

Relentless consistency has been the theme of Shane Lowry's 2022 campaign - and overdue reward could be coming on US Open Sunday. The popular Irishman is in the form of his life, oozing control in every department of his game, and he lies ninth on the PGA Tour for strokes-gained-on-approach.

In 11 strokeplay starts this year, Lowry has finished no worse than 32nd place, finishing runner-up in the Honda Classic, 13th in the Players Championship, third in the Masters, third in the Heritage and tenth last week in the Canadian Open. In Canada, his putter was ice-cold, but there is no reason to panic given he lies 24th in the Tour putting stats this season.

With a windy week forecast and Brookline having such small greens, Lowry should be in his element. He is a master at controlling his ball in a breeze and his magic hands give him much more hope than others of scrambling pars.

Lowry was runner-up in the 2016 US Open, before becoming a Major champion in the 2019 Open. He has proved himself a man for the big occasion and is playing too well to ignore.

Other selections

Joaquin Niemann 33-1

Tommy Fleetwood 60-1

Taylor Montgomery 350-1

Brandon Matthews 1,000-1

Joaquin Niemann appears to have come of age and may be ready to become a Major champion this week. He won a top-class Genesis Invitational from the front in February, then handled himself superbly in the most high-pressure threeball of the year - the first round of the Masters alongside Tiger Woods as the greatest player of all time made his comeback. Niemann carded a 69 and has been solid since, finishing 23rd in the US PGA and third in the Memorial last time out.

Niemann, a prodigy who was world number one amateur for 44 weeks, was always destined for greatness. The 23-year-old has made the cut in his last seven Majors, is excellent in the wind, and has got a good set of tee-times.

Tommy Fleetwood could also threaten a Major breakthrough. The Southport lad has been enduring a quiet spell, but the long-game on which he has built a great career is coming back, and his short-game has never been in better nick. Brookline may be where it all comes together.

Fleetwood has shown he can handle the US Open assignment - he was fourth in 2017 and runner-up in 2018 - and he was runner-up in the 2019 Open Championship. His 14th place in the Masters in April was an Augusta PB, then he outscored the field over the weekend of the US PGA, closing with rounds of 69 and 67 for fifth place. A windy Brookline seems right up his street.

Complete a six-pronged attack with two massive-price outsiders. Taylor Montgomery has been impressing on the Korn Ferry Tour and guaranteed his promotion to the PGA Tour with his eighth-place finish last time out. Montgomery's form figures from his last five Korn Ferry Tour events are 4-13-4-2-8.

Montgomery is a four-time Korn Ferry Tour runner-up who finished 57th on his US Open debut last year. He qualified again this year at a US Open venue (Olympic Club) and in January he finished 11th in just his third PGA Tour start - at another US Open venue (Torrey Pines). This is a 27-year-old powerhouse going places.

The even bigger odds about Brandon Matthews are worth a second glance. Like Montgomery, Matthews is riding the crest of a wave, having just secured promotion to the PGA Tour. A final-hole birdie and 15th place in the latest Korn Ferry Tour event sealed the deal on Sunday. Matthews got his first Korn Ferry Tour win in February and has triumphed three times on the Latinoamerica Tour.

The qualifier has got his career progressing nicely at the age of 27 and he tees up this week at a course where he was a quarter-finalist in the 2013 US Amateur. Matthews is a huge driver - able to keep up with Cameron Champ - and he made two eagles in his final round last Sunday. With three par-fours in range for him this week, and a great set of tee-times, this power-packed giant can make an impact.

Brookline course guide

Course The Country Club, Brookline, Massachusetts
Prize money $12.5m ($2.25m to the winner)
Length 7,264 yards
Par 70 - two par-fives; 12 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 156 The cut The top 60 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Jon Rahm (2), Rory McIlroy (3), Patrick Cantlay (4), Justin Thomas (5)
Course records- 72 holes 278 Curtis Strange (1988 US Open) 18 holes 64 Peter Jacobsen (1988 US Open)

Course winner taking part Matthew Fitzpatrick (2013 US Amateur Championship)

Playoff format Two-hole aggregate playoff, with sudden-death from there if tied

When to bet By 11.45am UK and Ireland time

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Time difference Massachusetts is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Canadian Open 1 R McIlroy (10-1), 2 T Finau (28-1), 3 J Thomas (10-), T4 J Rose (66-1), S Burns (14-1), 6 C Conners (22-1), T7 K Mitchell (45-1), C Kirk (45-1), W Clark (200-1); LIV Golf London 1 C Schwartzel (33-1), 2 H Du Plessis (40-1), T3 B Grace (50-1), P Uihlein (55-1), 5 S Horsfield (18-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview One of the oldest country clubs in the States, Brookline first hosted the US Open in 1913, then again in 1963 and 1988. It has also staged the US Amateur six times, most recently in 2013, and the 1999 Ryder Cup was there. The 'Battle of Brookline', as the bad-tempered event became known, was won 14.5-13.5 by America. Justin Leonard's putt from 45 feet on the 17th hole of his singles match against Jose Maria Olazabal - followed by infamous celebrations on the green before Olazabal attempted to putt for a half - was the decisive moment. Gil Hanse modernised the track in 2009. It is a cross between a traditional parkland course and a links track, with native grass lining the rough and deep bunkers which have fescue around the edges (similar to Merion, 2013 US Open). There will be two cuts of rough inside the fescue lining the fairways. Along the rolling hills of the course there are numerous rocky outcrops waiting to punish mishit shots. The greens are small and demand approaches through the air - rough runs around the entirety of many greens (no apron to run balls along), other greens have bunkers guarding the front, while most are elevated. The first four holes are long and punishing. The course is only seven miles from the Atlantic Ocean, so often gets windy

Story of last year Jon Rahm birdied his final two holes to edge Louis Oosthuizen by a shot and become a Major champion. Only 10,000 spectators were allowed at Torrey Pines each day, due to Covid restrictions

Weather forecast Breezy throughout, particularly in the afternoons, with Thursday afternoon and Saturday afternoon potentially the windiest. Dry for the vast majority of the event, with temperatures peaking at 27C on Friday afternoon

Type of player suited to the challenge This is a second-shot course which demands precision approaches. Accurate iron-play, backed up by sharp scrambling for the inevitable misses, seems the key to success

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight The last ten winners of the US Open had an average greens-in-regulation ranking for the week of just over five

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