Steve Palmer's US PGA Championship final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the US PGA Championship

Sky Sports Golf, 2pm Saturday

Best bets

Bryson DeChambeau to win the US PGA Championship
3pts each-way 7-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Patrick Cantlay to win 2.05pm twoball (4-7) & Byeong Hun An to win 2.45pm twoball (5-12)
3pts double bet365

Story so far

World number one Scottie Scheffler fell away in round three of the US PGA Championship at Valhalla, while Rory McIlroy stalled badly on the back nine, leaving the second Major of the season wide open with 18 holes to play.

Scheffler carded a Saturday 73 to drift from 3-1 to 250-1, while McIlroy is a general 100-1 despite closing to within three shots of the lead through ten holes of his third round. McIlroy was over par to the clubhouse from there to leave himself seven shots behind going into Sunday.

Xander Schauffele and Collin Morikawa are tied for the lead at 15 under par. Schauffele, seeking his maiden Major title, recovered from a double-bogey at the 15th hole with birdies at 17 and 18. The pre-tournament 14-1 chance has become 13-5 favourite. Morikawa, a 27-year-old looking for a third Major success, can be backed at 11-4. He was a best-price 28-1 on tournament-eve.

The final round starts at 7.45am local time (12.45pm UK and Ireland). The final twoball of Schauffele and Morikawa is scheduled to tee off at 7.35pm UK. A sunny, warm and calm denouement is forecast.

US PGA Championship leaderboard

-15 Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa
-14 Sahith Theegala
-13 Shane Lowry, Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland
-12 Justin Rose, Robert MacIntyre
-11 Dean Burmester

Selected others
-10 Justin Thomas
-8 Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama
-7 Scottie Scheffler
-6 Max Homa
-4 Brooks Koepka

Best odds for the US PGA Championship

13-5 X Schauffele, 11-4 C Morikawa, 7 S Theegala, B DeChambeau, 8 V Hovland, 12 S Lowry, 33 J Rose, 40 R MacIntyre, 50 D Burmester, 66 J Thomas, 100 R McIlroy, T Finau, 150 bar

US PGA Championship final-round predictions

With question marks over the finishing strength of the leading duo at Valhalla, the stage could be set for Californian powerhouse Bryson DeChambeau to win a second Major title.

Xander Schauffele underlined last week in the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow how much he has come to struggle on Sundays in top-class company. He had a two-shot lead through seven holes of the Wells Fargo final round, but played the closing 11 holes in one over par, losing by five shots to Rory McIlroy.

That shaky Quail Hollow Sunday was just the latest in a long line of weekend failures from a player who has not lifted PGA Tour silverware for almost two years.

Collin Morikawa has also lacked killer instinct since making a barnstorming start to his professional career. A second Major title came in the 2021 Open Championship, but the low-grade 2023 Zozo Championship has been his only PGA Tour success since he lifted the Claret Jug.

Morikawa arrived at Valhalla this week off a string of miserable Sundays. His last five Sunday scores on the PGA Tour are 74, 74, 74, 72, 74. His coach talked on Saturday night about how his charge will need to give himself a “pep talk” prior to the final round at Valhalla. Like Schauffele, Morikawa has become more brittle in contention the deeper he has got into his career.

Contending in a Major is new territory for Sahith Theegala, while Shane Lowry has not won a PGA Tour event as an individual since the 2019 Open. Viktor Hovland is just a week back into his relationship with swing coach Joe Mayo, having abandoned his five-month dalliance with Grant Waite, so the Norwegian may be thinking too much over the ball in round four.

Hovland should get back to his best over time, but going into US PGA Sunday it is the name of Bryson DeChambeau who screams value. With 7-1 available – and each-way terms of a quarter the odds the first three – DeChambeau appears a great bet to claim a second Major title.

DeChambeau won the 2020 US Open by six shots. One of the keys to that success was his ability to hit from the rough – he is arguably the best in the game at muscling balls forward from horrible lies in the cabbage – and that strength can help at Valhalla. The main defence of this relatively straightforward Major venue is the juicy rough.

DeChambeau has twice finished fourth in the US PGA, including last year, and enjoys the PGA of America's set-ups. This particular track, which has been playing soft and long all week, sets up perfectly for the 30-year-old slugger.

DeChambeau typically plays well in this region. His only Korn Ferry Tour victory came in Ohio, his first two PGA Tour wins were in Illinois and Ohio, and his two LIV Golf triumphs have come in West Virginia and Illinois. Ohio, Illinois and West Virginia are all neighbouring states of Kentucky – big Bryson has relished another trip to the American Southeast.

Lacklustre efforts in LIV Adelaide and LIV Singapore were off-putting for punters prior to the tournament, but they were clearly red herrings. DeChambeau, who finished sixth in the Masters, has got himself in peak condition for the second Major of the season.

A chip-in eagle at his final hole of round three has sent him into Valhalla Sunday bursting with positivity. From two shots behind a pair of unconvincing leaders, DeChambeau can claim the Wanamaker Trophy.

The day can start with a final-round twoball double featuring two strong favourites. Patrick Cantlay should boss European Ryder Cup captain Luke Donald in their 2.05pm meeting, while Byeong Hun An can outclass club pro Braden Shattuck in the 2.45pm match. Cantlay at 4-7 and An at 5-12 makes a double of more than 6-5.

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