US Open: Steve Palmer's final-round analysis, tips, where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 7pm Sunday

Story so far
Gary Woodland retained his lead in round three of the US Open and the American powerhouse takes a one-shot advantage into Sunday at Pebble Beach.

Woodland has continued to perform way above his usual standard on and around the greens, putting and scrambling superbly, and he has dropped only two shots over the first 54 holes.

Pebble Beach has played easier than was widely anticipated, but carding just two bogeys over three rounds is an incredible effort. The pre-tournament 80-1 chance is just 2-1 to repel the chasing pack and land his first Major title.

Justin Rose, 28-1 ante-post, is alone in second place, with a trio tied for third, a further three shots off the pace, headlined by Brooks Koepka. The dream of three consecutive US Open victories is still alive for Koepka, the dominant force of recent Majors.

Rory McIlroy, favourite before the event and at the halfway stage, relinquished his position at the top of the market after a third-round 70 left him in sixth spot. McIlroy has a five-shot final-round deficit to overcome and can be backed at 11-1.

Leaderboard
-11 Gary Woodland
-10 Justin Rose
-7 Brooks Koepka, Chez Reavie, Louis Oosthuizen
-6 Rory McIlroy
-5 Matt Kuchar, Chesson Hadley
-4 Danny Willett, Graeme McDowell, Jon Rahm, Henrik Stenson, Matt Wallace
-3 Byeong Hun An, Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott

Selected others
-2 Dustin Johnson, Francesco Molinari
-1 Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama
Par Jason Day, Tiger Woods
+1 Rickie Fowler, Jordan Spieth

Best prices
15-8 J Rose, 2 G Woodland, 5 B Koepka, 11 R McIlroy, 14 L Oosthuizen, 33 C Reavie, 66 M Kuchar, 100 bar

Final-round advice
Justin Rose used round three to cut his deficit in half – a final-hole birdie edged him closer to the lead – and the 2013 champion is in position to claim a second Major title.

The last time the US Open was played at a relatively short course like Pebble Beach was at Merion six years ago, and it was Rose who passed that fiddly little assignment the best. He has enjoyed plotting his way along Pebble, too, and his short-game has been in remarkably fine fettle. The US Open trophy looks set to return to the Englishman's possession.

The forecast for round four is sunny with light breezes. Given the lead is already 11 under par, with benign skies waiting, the USGA seem likely to make the pin positions as difficult as possible for the denouement.

The most likely scenario, then, with flag-chasing pursuers coming unstuck, is that the event turns into a duel between Rose and Gary Woodland, with whoever makes the fewest mistakes becoming champion. For all Woodland's assurance so far this week, Rose is better suited to the chess-like game that should unfold. He will probably move his ball sensibly and safely throughout, aided by strong caddie Gareth Lord, finding the fat of the small greens, two-putting for pars and grinding it out.

Woodland, looking to become a Major champion, is playing under more pressure and seems more likely to hit the odd loose drive or approach. And the short-game heroics of the first three days – an amazing revival for a player who has traditionally struggled badly with this department of the game – may vanish with the finishing line looming.

Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen and Rory McIlroy are Majors champions lurking with intent – close enough if good enough – but Rose probably has enough of a buffer to see them all off. The 15-8 Rose is much more attractive than the 2-1 Woodland, so a decent outright investment is recommended on the man who won the Farmers Insurance Open in California in January.

Final-round twoball punters are pointed towards Tommy Fleetwood (5.11pm), who has finished fourth and second in the last two US Opens. This typically rock-solid ball-striker holed a long bogey putt on the 18th green to sneak through to the weekend this time and can finish with a flourish in an event he loves. Aaron Wise, doubtless shell-shocked from a third-round 79, seems much less likely to sign off in style.

Outright recommendation
J Rose
4pts 15-8 Betfair, Betway, Power

Twoballs recommendation
T Fleetwood
2pts 8-11 general

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