US Open: Steve Palmer's day-one analysis, second-round advice

Sky Sports Golf, 4pm Friday

Story so far
Justin Rose led the US Open after round one, the 2013 champion carding a six-under-par 65 on a calm day where low scores were possible at Pebble Beach, California.

The pre-tournament 28-1 chance matched the lowest score in the history of the US Open at Pebble – Tiger Woods opened with a 65 on his way to winning the 2000 edition – and the Englishman has assumed favouritism with three rounds to play.

The USGA, clearly reacting to the criticism they suffered for their harsh and much-maligned course set-up at Shinnecock Hills 12 months ago, made Pebble scoreable for day one. Generally windless skies, coupled with greens which were more receptive than had been expected, allowed 39 players to finish under par.

Rose closed his round with three consecutive birdies to edge ahead of a quartet of players who are tied for second, a shot behind, a group which includes Californian duo Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele.

Rose has become 6-1 market leader, with his Ryder Cup colleague Rory McIlroy next in the betting. McIlroy putted well in a three-under-par 68 to make a bright start, lurking in eighth place. A hot putter was also enough for Tiger Woods to stay in contention, the 15-times Major champion making up for a poor day of ball-striking with some gutsy scrambling. Woods is one under par, sharing 28th place.

Defending champion Brooks Koepka opened with a 69, the same score as Jon Rahm, while a level-par 71 was the humdrum morning effort of Dustin Johnson. Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay have given themselves much work to do, both slumping to 73s.

Leaderboard
-6 Justin Rose
-5 Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele, Louis Oosthuizen, Aaron Wise
-4 Scott Piercy, Nate Lashley
-3 Sepp Straka, Emiliano Grillo, Rory McIlroy, Gary Woodland, Chez Reavie, Chesson Hadley, Henrik Stenson, Francesco Molinari

Selected others
-2 Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Hideki Matsuyama, Sergio Garcia, Brooks Koepka, Matt Kuchar
-1 Jason Day, Paul Casey, Adam Scott, Tiger Woods
Par Dustin Johnson
+1 Phil Mickelson, Jordan Spieth
+2 Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay

Best prices
6 J Rose, 15-2 R McIlroy, 8 B Koepka, 9 R Fowler, X Schauffele, 16 T Woods, 20 F Molinari, L Oosthuizen, 25 D Johnson, 35 J Rahm, H Matsuyama, 40 bar

Day-two advice
Justin Rose admitted to getting his preparation all wrong for the Masters in April, missing the cut at an Augusta layout where he usually thrives, but he has clearly put in the necessary work for the US Open.

An afternoon 65 has laid a superb foundation for the week ahead and he will fancy his chances of improving his score on a calm second morning. Rose won the Farmers Insurance Open in January at Torrey Pines, a California track with tricky poa annua greens, and he has returned to the Golden State in confident mood.

Rose, working well with new full-time caddie Gareth Lord, should be in the thick of things throughout this tournament. The leaderboard is loaded with quality, though, and Rose is unlikely to take a stranglehold over the event like Tiger Woods did when he opened with a 65 at Pebble 19 years ago.

Xander Schauffele is the pick of the quartet in second place – the ice-cool Californian has quickly shown he can handle the rigours of the US Open and Majors generally – but he will be a late starter in round two and have a bit more breeze than Rose to contend with.

Henrik Stenson, Francesco Molinari, Brooks Koepka and Matt Fitzpatrick – still 125-1 with Sky Bet despite an opening round of 69 on a course which suits – are a quartet who can be expected to move up the board early on day two. And the same can be said of Woods, despite his Thursday struggles.

Woods hit the ball about as badly as he could – his iron-play, in particular, was way below his usual standard – yet he still managed to shoot under par on a course he has previously destroyed. If normal service is resumed from tee to green from a morning launchpad in round two, Woods should go low – his putting stroke, the biggest pre-tournament concern, is clearly in mint condition.

Second-round threeball punters are pointed towards Woods, who can turn the tables on Rose in what seems likely to be a duel between the pair. Jordan Spieth, the third member of the 4.24pm (UK and Ireland time) group, was tetchy and unimpressive in round one, warring with his caddie Michael Greller after some course-management blunders.

The long-game of Spieth does not seem ready for US Open combat – he has been struggling badly for a long time. Woods was out of kilter in round one, too, but he often makes a slow start in Majors, slowly but surely building his way into contention for the back-nine Sunday, and he was thrilled to card an under-par round with his typically trusty irons misfiring. The greatest champion in the field knows he has survived what is almost certain to be his worst ball-striking round of the week and will approach day two in a positive frame of mind.

Betway are still offering six each-way places as well as a stand-out 16-1 Woods, which is too dismissive of his chances. With 117 players in the 156-runner field behind him and a morning tee-time to come, Tiger's title hopes have not diminished.

Threeballs recommendation
T Woods
1pt 8-5 general

Outright recommendation
T Woods
1pt each-way 16-1 Betway

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