Steve Palmer's US Open final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the US Open

Sky Sports Golf, 2pm Sunday

Best bets

Ludvig Aberg to win the US Open
2pts each-way 18-1 bet365

Sergio Garcia to win 6.10pm twoball
2pts Evens Betfair, Power

Adam Scott to win 2.09pm twoball
2pts 4-6 bet365

Story so far

Bryson DeChambeau leads the US Open by three shots going into the final round at Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina and starts Sunday odds-on for victory.

DeChambeau, who won his lone Major title in the 2020 US Open at Winged Foot, could be backed at a pre-tournament 20-1 for Pinehurst glory. Rounds of 67, 69 and 67 have left the cocksure Californian at seven under par and a best-price 10-11.

Rory McIlroy is among those tied for second place and the four-time Major champion can be backed at 7-2 to end his long Major-winning drought. McIlroy finished second in last year's US Open at Los Angeles Country Club.

Halfway pacesetter Ludvig Aberg endured a tripe-bogey seven at the 13th hole of round three to derail his challenge. Aberg is tied with Hideki Matsuyama for fifth place, five shots off the pace.

The final round is scheduled to start at 7.30am local time (12.30pm UK and Ireland), with the final twoball of DeChambeau and Matthieu Pavon due out at 2.21pm local (7.21pm UK). A sunny, warm, calm day is forecast.

US Open leaderboard

-7 Bryson DeChambeau
-4 Matthieu Pavon, Rory McIlroy, Patrick Cantlay
-2 Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg
-1 Tyrrell Hatton, Tony Finau
Par Collin Morikawa, Corey Conners, Tom Kim

Selected others
+1 Xander Schauffele
+6 Brooks Koepka, Scottie Scheffler

Missed cut
+6 Viktor Hovland, Max Homa
+7 Tiger Woods
+8 Will Zalatoris
+11 Justin Thomas

Best odds for the US Open

10-11 B DeChambeau, 7-2 R McIlroy, 8 P Cantlay, 16 M Pavon, 18 L Aberg, 20 H Matsuyama, 55 T Hatton, T Finau, C Morikawa, 125 bar

US Open final-round predictions

Bryson DeChambeau promised to play “boring golf” in his bid to become the king of Pinehurst, but it has been anything but from the 30-year-old powerhouse. He has found it difficult to curb his attacking instincts, but a combination of pure brilliance and a few slices of fortune has put him clear at the top of the leaderboard.

DeChambeau, a crowd favourite since dazzling American galleries in the US PGA Championship a month ago, has made 15 birdies in a wild ride along this famous layout. He has been out of position off the tee numerous times before conjuring incredible recovery shots. And he took advantage of the temporary immovable obstruction rule to remarkable effect on the fifth hole on Friday.

Will Lady Luck continue to follow DeChambeau along these iconic fairways on Sunday? Or will the wheels come off as USGA chiefs turn the screw? The USGA prefer to have the winning score in a US Open around the par mark, so they have plenty of scope for setting the course up in brutal fashion for the denouement.

DeChambeau makes little appeal at odds-on. Shots can be quickly frittered away at Pinehurst, especially around the greens. Expect some errant approaches and clumsy chips from the frontrunner under the extreme pressure of US Open Sunday.

Matthieu Pavon is entering new territory, contending for a Major for the first time, having missed the cut in four of his previous six Majors. The Frenchman seems likely to be overwhelmed by the occasion, while the hopes of Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay have not been helped by the draw.

It is no secret that McIlroy and Cantlay lack fondness for each other. They have reportedly been at loggerheads in PGA Tour policy board meetings and failed to see eye to eye long before the infamous Ryder Cup spat between McIlroy and Cantlay's caddie Joe LaCava.

McIlroy and Cantlay probably both sighed in disappointment when seeing they have been paired together for the final round. McIlroy is burdened by his Major-winning drought, while Cantlay has a poor Majors record for a player of his stature and he relied on some clutch putting to stay in the hunt in round three.

With doubts surrounding the top four on the leaderboard, this tournament appears wide open with 18 holes to play, and the best value runners are arguably the duo tied for fifth place – Hideki Matsuyama and Ludvig Aberg.

Matsuyama battled back well after a slow start to round three and the former Masters champion will sense his opportunity from just off the pace. The Japanese star showed just how magnificent his A-game is when carding a final-round 62 to romp to Genesis Invitational glory in February – and there can be no doubt he has scope for a flying finish at Pinehurst.

Aberg has been excellent this week, aside from making a mess of the 13th hole in round three. There are certain spots at Pinehurst where a player is essentially doomed – and Aberg found one. A nightmare around the 13th green saw him drop away, but the super-cool Swede is well capable of righting his ship on Sunday.

Matsuyama at 20-1 and Aberg at 16-1 are attractive prices. Matsuyama was a Racing Post Sport 45-1 pre-tournament recommendation, so punters on ante-post need not get involved any further in him. Getting Aberg onside, providing two hopes of outright success, appeals at this stage.

Matsuyama and Aberg are playing together in the 6.59pm (UK) twoball and they could provide a ball-striking masterclass to ease their way closer to the lead. Expect a high-class Sunday performance from this duo and for them to apply an added layer of early pressure to DeChambeau.

Sergio Garcia has been hugely pumped-up for this event, battling manfully in his 25th consecutive US Open appearance, and the 44-year-old can put his experience to good use in the 6.10pm twoball. The Spaniard seems considerably better equipped for a late tee-time on a firm, fast US Open track than his playing partner Taylor Pendrith.

Garcia should be comfortably odds-on for this match, but evens is available. Pendrith, a powerhouse prone to destructive shots and unconvincing chipping, had missed the cut in three of his previous five Majors. It would be no surprise to see the Canadian plummet down the leaderboard in round four.

Former world number one Adam Scott has an enormous class edge over qualifier Brian Campbell and some bookmakers are being extremely generous with quotes of 4-6 about the Aussie defeating the American in round four.

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