Steve Palmer's Open Championship third-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 9am Saturday

Best bets

Tyrrell Hatton to win 3.25pm twoball
3pts 10-11 Betfair

Tommy Fleetwood to win 12.10pm twoball
3pts 4-5 Betfair

Rory McIlroy to win 3.45pm twoball
3pts 8-11 BoyleSports, Coral, Ladbrokes

Lucas Herbert to win 2.30pm twoball
2pts 11-10 BoyleSports

Nicolai Hojgaard top Scandinavian
1pt 10-1 bet365

Story so far

Cameron Smith leads the Open Championship by two shots heading into the weekend - the pre-tournament 28-1 becoming 15-8 favourite through 36 holes on the Old Course at St Andrews.

Smith, who turns 29 years of age next month, is well on course for his best-ever Open finish, with previous results of MC-78-20-33, having made a barnstorming St Andrews debut.

A second-round 64, which included an eagle at the 14th hole, propelled Smith to the top of the leaderboard. He won the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January and the Players Championship in March, and is seeking a Major breakthrough on Sunday.

Cameron Young is alone in second place - the New York-born 25-year-old enjoying a superb Open debut - while Rory McIlroy is tied for third spot with Viktor Hovland.

McIlroy had a topsy-turvy end to round two, missing a short par putt at the 15th, making a brilliant birdie at the notoriously difficult 17th, then closing with a disappointing par at the 18th, but the four-time Major champion is well in the hunt and a 4-1 chance for Open glory.

Dustin Johnson is a shot behind McIlroy and Hovland, while world number one Scottie Scheffler is tied for sixth alongside fellow dangerman Tyrrell Hatton.

Anyone over par for two rounds missed the cut. Those to feel the axe included former Open champions Henrik Stenson and Louis Oosthuizen, defending champion Collin Morikawa, along with Max Homa, Webb Simpson, Ryan Fox, Brooks Koepka and Tiger Woods.

Leaderboard
-13 Cameron Smith
-11 Cameron Young
-10 Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland
-9 Dustin Johnson
-8 Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton
-7 Talor Gooch, Adam Scott, Patrick Cantlay, Sahith Theegala

Best prices
15-8 C Smith, 4 R McIlroy, 8 C Young, 10 V Hovland, 11 D Johnson, 12 S Scheffler, 25 T Hatton, 28 P Cantlay, 40 bar

Third-round preview

Cameron Smith has broken the St Andrews Open record for the first 36 holes - 13 under par is an incredible start - and the leader will be setting a new 72-hole mark if he maintains this gallop.

Tiger Woods finished on 19 under par in 2000 for the greatest St Andrews effort in history, while Henrik Stenson reached 20 under at Royal Troon in 2016 to record the Open's lowest 72-hole total.
Smith is likely to be aware of these possibilities, but much more focused on his primary task of becoming Australia's first Open champion since Greg Norman in 1993.

How Smith reacts to the pressure of leading the greatest tournament of them all - at the most revered venue of them all - is a key component as to how the 150th Open Championship unfolds from here. Is Smith a Jack Nicklaus or a Francesco Molinari?

That question is posed because Smith has the chance to become only the second player since Nicklaus to win both the Players Championship and the Open in the same year. That would be an incredible double, particularly given how the status of the Players has enhanced so much since Nicklaus achieved the feat in 1978.

Nicklaus had already won 14 Majors, though, by the time he got in the mix at St Andrews 44 years ago. Smith is looking for his first.

The Molinari comparison seems more relevant. Molinari had the Masters at his mercy in 2019, before finding water at the 12th hole of the final round and fading away. The Italian dropped from seventh in the world rankings to outside the top 100 in the space of two years, and has not won anything since suffering at Augusta's famous Golden Bell.

Smith has not been at his best since the Masters - his top finish since coming with tenth place in last week's Scottish Open - and it will be fascinating to see how he performs if it is tight down the stretch at St Andrews on Sunday. This laid-back character seemed immune to pressure until buckling at the 12th in his Augusta duel with Scottie Scheffler. It is almost inevitable he will feel similar tension at golf's other piece of holy land this weekend.

Rory McIlroy will expect to put plenty of heat on to Smith's shoulders over the next two days. McIlroy has been feeding off huge crowd support this week as he bounces along the fairways with his game in fine fettle. His putting stroke has looked better than ever in recent months and a 66, 68 start has laid a solid foundation for the week.

McIlroy, who fired rounds of 69 and 68 over the weekend of his last St Andrews Open to finish third, will know he probably needs something a little better than that this time. There is some moderate breeze forecast for both Saturday and Sunday afternoon, but 19 or 20 under par may be needed to secure the Claret Jug if Smith stays on the front foot.

McIlroy has lifted the Jug before - at Hoylake in 2014 - and he is the only Open champion in the top 24 on this leaderboard. This should count for plenty as the tournaments nears a conclusion. And the world number two is full of confidence in every department of his game.

Viktor Hovland's birdie at the 18th hole of round two was probably, in an odd way, helpful to McIlroy's chances. It meant he avoided a round-three date with Dustin Johnson. McIlroy has made no secret of how disappointed he is with those who have joined LIV Golf - and doubtless Johnson in particular - so it is probably best they avoided each other on Saturday. Ryder Cup colleague Hovland is much more appealing company for a long day on the links.

Faith remains strong in McIlroy - Racing Post Sport's 10-1 pre-tournament headline recommendation - and the 4-1 available at this stage seems more than fair. If he can get into a final twoball with Smith for Sunday, McIlroy's superior firepower off the tee, allied to his much more impressive CV, could prove decisive. Smith deserves plenty of respect, but he has won only three PGA Tour titles.

Third-round twoball punters are pointed towards two Englishman who are attractively priced at a shade of odds-on. Tyrrell Hatton, a two-time Dunhill Links champion at St Andrews, has grown understandably confident at the Home of Golf and should be much shorter than 10-11 to defeat St Andrews newcomer Talor Gooch.

Tommy Fleetwood also has a tremendous record on this famous links and the Southport lad will expect to boss Brian Harman at 12.10pm. Harman has improved on his Scottish Open effort, but last week's rounds of 80 and 73 at the Renaissance Club indicate a fragility in the little left-hander.

Viktor Hovland has raised his game for the Open, but his level of performance over the last four months would make the Norwegian a surprise Open champion. A holed second shot at the 15th helped Hovland to his lofty perch, but McIlroy looks a rock-solid 8-11 chance for their Saturday twoball.

Lucas Herbert, an excellent links exponent who has twice finished fourth in the Scottish Open and was seventh in the 2018 Dunhill Links at St Andrews, can dominate twoball opponent Aaron Wise on the greens. Herbert is already one shot ahead of Wise, and can be fancied to extend that gap in round three.

Punters seeking bigger prices are pointed towards Nicolai Hojgaard for top Scandinavian - a market which closes at 1.05pm. There are only two runners left - Viktor Hovland and Nicolai Hojgaard - with six shots separating them.

The 10-1 available about Hojgaard seems generous. From a share of third place, Hovland has the scope for a meltdown. His self-belief appears to have dropped a level over the last four months - and he even shanked an approach in the Scottish Open last week.

Hojgaard is an explosive, ultra-attacking player who could shoot 62 or 82. Crucially the young powerhouse is putting well this week - the putter is often his bugbear - meaning positive weekend strides are entirely feasible. The 10-1 is worth chancing to small stakes.

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