Steve Palmer's free Open Championship predictions & golf betting tips: our expert bids to follow up 25-1 and 14-1 winners

When to bet on the Open Championship

By 6.30am on Thursday

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Steve Palmer's Open Championship predictions

Xander Schauffele
4pts each-way 14-1 Hills

Tommy Fleetwood
3pts each-way 22-1 Paddy Power

Shane Lowry
2.5pts each-way 35-1 bet365, Hills

Alex Noren
1.5pts each-way 80-1 BoyleSports, Hills

Victor Perez
1pt each-way 250-1 BoyleSports

Sami Valimaki
0.5pt each-way 500-1 bet365, BoyleSports

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Steve Palmer's Open Championship preview

Scottie Scheffler tees up for a Major as a short-priced favourite again, but the world number one's superiority comes with no guarantees of success on a windy Scottish links, so the market leader can be overlooked on value grounds.

The vagaries of the weather can impact the Open significantly, particularly at Scottish venues, as the tee-times are stretched from dawn until late afternoon over the first two days. Everyone starts from the first tee, praying for calm skies, but wind is expected throughout this week's championship.

There was a significant draw bias in the last Open at Troon in 2016 – a late round-one tee-time was advantageous. Scheffler, making his Troon debut after almost a month out of competition, can be taken on.

Rory McIlroy finished fourth at Troon eight years ago, despite being on the wrong side of the draw bias, but the 2014 Open  victor has become difficult to trust in Majors. The ten-year Major-winning drought is a psychological hurdle which got even higher with his late surrender of the US Open a month ago.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Xander Schauffele 14-1

Over Christmas and the first months of 2024, Xander Schauffele was working on swing changes with his new coach Chris Como, and from spring onwards the results of their union have been spectacular. A Claret Jug can put the icing on the cake of a magnificent campaign.

Schauffele came close to winning the Players Championship at Sawgrass in March, sharing second place, pipped by Scheffler. Two months later, the Wells Fargo Championship appeared to be going Schauffele's way, but McIlroy produced an incredible final-round performance to leave the X-Man as runner-up again.

The calm Californian, who turned 30 in October, stayed patient and resilient, blocking out the noise surrounding his frequent near-misses, and reward came in the US PGA Championship in the middle of May. A birdie at the final hole meant a closing 65, a one-shot victory, and a Major breakthrough. The relief was palpable.

Schauffele has been all smiles since, sharing seventh in the US Open last month. Each of his last ten tournaments has yielded a top-20 finish and he has never had a more complete all-round game. The San Diego man is putting well and weakness-free.

The Scottish Open has proved a useful warm-up event for many Open champions – eight of the last 12 Open winners teed up in the Scottish – and Schauffele's Renaissance visit seemed ideal. Rounds of 69, 65, 67, 67 meant 15th place and he did not drop a shot over the final three days.

Schauffele's Majors record is fantastic. He can boast 22 top-20s in his 29 Majors, with 14 top-tens. He has finished second in a Masters, third in a US Open, and second in the Open – at Carnoustie in 2018. A full Open record of 20-2-41-26-15-17 is impressively consistent and his 2022 Scottish Open victory is another positive links effort.

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Next best bet

Tommy Fleetwood 22-1

The Open assignment is made for Tommy Fleetwood, who grew up playing links golf in Southport and is an elite player on this type of terrain. The 33-year-old is superb at controlling his ball-flight in the wind and this week's forecast just adds to his chance.

Fleetwood was in terrible form when he arrived at Troon for the 2016 Open – he was struggling to make a cut anywhere and teed off as world number 142 – so that missed cut can be ignored. This week he tees up as an in-form world number 12.

Victory in the Dubai Invitational was a strong start to this year and Fleetwood has played generally to a high level since. He was third in the Masters, 26th in the US PGA, 16th in the US Open and three of his last four tournaments have yielded a top-20 finish.

A share of 34th place carrying a cold putter was a tidy enough Scottish Open spin and form figures from his last six Open starts of 27-12-2-33-4-10 underline Fleetwood's suitability to this event. He has twice finished runner-up in the Dunhill Links at St Andrews.

A runner-up effort in the 2018 US Open showcased Fleetwood's Major-winning potential – Brooks Koepka pipped him by a shot – and Ryder Cup heroics have since added to his self-belief. Faithful caddie Ian Finnis returned to the bag last week after recovering from heart surgery and this formidable duo could be in for a joyous week.

Other selections

Shane Lowry 35-1
Alex Noren 80-1
Victor Perez 250-1
Sami Valimaki 500-1

The man who left Fleetwood runner-up at Royal Portrush in 2019 must be in the staking plan. Shane Lowry was incredible in that Open – an inspired performance to become a Major champion – and he finished 12th on his title defence.

Like Fleetwood, Lowry is an elite links golfer. He won the 2009 Irish Open at County Louth when he was still an amateur. The Irishman was playing links golf in his homeland last week to prepare for the Open – a tactic Tiger Woods and Padraig Harrrington have used successfully in the past.

Lowry, fourth in the Cognizant Classic, third at Bay Hill, sixth in the US PGA and ninth in the Travelers Championship last time out, also has a Zurich Classic pairs victory (alongside McIlroy) on his 2024 record.

Lowry missed the cut in the 2016 Open at Troon, but that came soon after his heartbreaking US Open near-miss. Dejected and frazzled from Oakmont, he missed his next four cuts.

Three outsiders complete the staking plan. Alex Noren is another top-class links golfer who is comfortable in the wind. He tied 46th in the 2016 Open at Troon despite being on the wrong side of the draw. The Swede has won four times in Britain on the DP World Tour, including the Scottish Open at the Castle Stuart links.

Noren has five Open top-20s on his CV, including sixth place at Birkdale in 2017. He has posted seven top-20s this year, including third spot in the Byron Nelson, 12th in the US PGA and tenth last week in the Scottish Open, where he closed with a 65 to claim a last-gasp Open ticket.

Victor Perez won the Dunhill Links at St Andrews in 2019 – a maiden DP World Tour title. The Frenchman lives in Dundee, so has access to lots of great Scottish links courses, and he has gone on to become a three-time DPWT champion, winning the Abu Dhabi Championship Rolex Series event last year.

Perez, who has finished 34th and 41st in the last two Opens, was a semi-finalist in the 2021 WGC-Match Play, ninth at Sawgrass that year and 12th in the US PGA this year, so he can handle elite company. Third place in the Canadian Open at the start of last month was followed by 12th in the Memorial and tenth in the Scottish Open, where he signed off with a 65.

Sami Valimaki also represents each-way value. Both his DPWT wins have come at windy locations – Oman and Qatar – and the Finn should relish this week's challenge. He was a prolific winner of low-grade events before quickly making an impact on the DPWT, earning a PGA Tour card through the Race to Dubai Rankings.

Valimaki finished runner-up in the Mexico Open on the PGA Tour in February and 12th place in the John Deere Classic the week before last was a timely return to form. He missed the cut by a shot in the Scottish Open, but there was plenty to like about his Friday 68. The 25-year-old is 101st in the world rankings and can do much better than the 68th place he managed on his Open debut 12 months ago.

Course guide for the Open Championship

• Course Royal Troon, Troon, South Ayrshire, Scotland
• Prize money $17m ($3.1m to the winner)
• Length 7,385 yards
• Par 71 – three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 156 The cut Top 70 and ties after two rounds qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Xander Schauffele (3), Ludvig Aberg (4), Wyndham Clark (5)
• Course records - 72 holes 272 Justin Leonard (1997 Open) 18 holes 63 Phil Mickelson, Henrik Stenson (2016 Open)
• Course winners taking part Justin Leonard, Todd Hamilton, Henrik Stenson
• When to bet By 6.30am on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 6.30am on Thursday
• Playoff A three-hole playoff for all players tied for the lead after 72 holes, with playoff continuing as sudden-death if players remain tied after the three holes
• Last week – Scottish Open 1 R MacIntyre (40-1), 2 A Scott (90-1), 3 R Langasque (225-1), T4 L Aberg (16-1), S Im (50-1), R McIlroy (8-1), C Morikawa (16-1), A Rai (45-1), S Theegala (60-1); LIV Golf Andalucia 1 S Garcia (14-1), 2 A Lahiri (50-1), 3 T Hatton (10-1), T4 P Reed (28-1), L Oosthuizen (28-1); ISCO Championship 1 H Hall (50-1), T2 P Coody (80-1), M NeSmith (100-1), Z Blair (100-1), R Hoey (40-1)
• Course type Links
• Course overview Royal Troon is hosting the Open for a tenth time. The historic venue first staged the event in 1923, followed by 1950, 1962, 1973, 1982, 1989, 1997, 2004 and 2016. There was a streak of six consecutive American winners of the Open at Troon until Henrik Stenson stopped that sequence eight years ago. The first six holes run alongside the Firth of Clyde, before the track turns inland to hilly dunes. The par-three eighth is typically the shortest hole on the Open rota, nicknamed the Postage Stamp. The front nine is much easier than the back. The par-four 11th – The Railway – is notorious as one of the toughest holes on the Open rota. This flat, hard-running layout provides a severe ball-striking examination
• Story of last year Brian Harman turned the event into a procession, cruising to a six-shot victory to become a Major champion, leaving four players tied for second place, including Jon Rahm
• Weather forecast Cloudy with moderate breezes throughout, and periods of light rain
• Type of player suited to the challenge Accuracy is more important than distance at Troon, with some blind tee shots, bunkers everywhere, thick rough and gorse bushes. Tee-to-green solidity seems the key to success
• Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's Open Championship key stat

The last 11 Open winners were all inside the top 40 of the world rankings going into Open week

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Racing Post Members' Club subscribers will get exclusive access to Steve Palmer's weekly golf tournament previews from 2pm on a Tuesday.

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