Steve Palmer's Open Championship predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Open Championship at Royal St George's, Sandwich, Kent.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 6.30am on Thursday

Best bets

Brooks Koepka
4pts each-way 18-1 Hills

Shane Lowry
2pts each-way 35-1 Betfair

Branden Grace
1.5pts each-way 60-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Harris English
1pt each-way 75-1 bet365

Abraham Ancer
1pt each-way 75-1 bet365

Stewart Cink
0.5pt each-way 140-1 bet365

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Jon Rahm has to be the starting point for punters assessing the 149th Open Championship. The bull-like Spaniard destroyed the Memorial field just over a month ago to forge a six-shot lead through 54 holes before his positive Covid test, then romped to US Open glory on his return.

On the form displayed at Muirfield Village and Torrey Pines, Rahm deserves clear favouritism for Royal St George's. He has shown a liking for links golf in twice winning the Irish Open and warmed up with seventh place in the Scottish Open last week.

Many members of the betting community will keep things simple and back Rahm for a second Major success this week, but there are a few slight negatives which must be noted. The first is an unimpressive Open record (59-44-MC-11), the second is a short price (8-1), the third is a knock to putting confidence suffered after some missed tiddlers in the Scottish Open, and the fourth is a potentially poor attitude to the course.

In his media conference at the Renaissance Club before the Scottish Open, Rahm described the Renaissance as "more fair" than Royal St George's, citing the "wayward bounces" that a player can suffer at the famous Kent track. Maybe the quirks of this challenging links will unsettle the form horse. The last two St George's champions have been 750-1 outsider Ben Curtis and 200-1 chance Darren Clarke, adding to the unease of favourite backers.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Brooks Koepka 18-1

An each-way bet on Brooks Koepka at more than double the odds of Rahm is the preferred course of action. Koepka has slowly but surely been recovering from knee surgery he had in the middle of March and four months later the Floridian powerhouse may be ready to claim a fifth Major title.

Even with the handicap of lacking full fitness, Koepka has contended in the last two Majors, finishing runner-up in the US PGA Championship and fourth in the US Open. He had never competed at Kiawah Island prior to the US PGA and he had Torrey Pines form figures of 41-MC-MC going into the US Open, so it was a remarkable effort for the 31-year-old to threaten victory.

Perhaps it was no surprise, though, given Koepka has become the king of modern Majors. He has won four of the last 15 Majors he has played, posting 11 top-tens in that stretch, finishing second three times. Nobody raises their game for Majors quite like Koepka.

Prior to his latest injury setback, Koepka won the Phoenix Open in February and tied for second in the WGC at The Concession. And it was hugely encouraging for his fans that after four gruelling US Open rounds he was able to tee up the following week in the Travelers Championship and strike his ball superbly.

Koepka finished fifth in the Travelers, topping the tee-to-green statistics and closing with a 65, reporting positively on the state of his knee. His last four starts in the Open have been solid (10-6-39-4) and Northern Irish caddie Ricky Elliott, who grew up in Portrush, is a huge asset on links terrain. The pair could be jetting back to the Sunshine State on Monday with the Claret Jug.

Next best bet

Shane Lowry 35-1

The main threat to Koepka may turn out to be the man who has been in possession of the Jug for two years. The coronavirus pandemic - and the cancellation of the 2020 Open - meant Shane Lowry kept hold of the trophy he won in such emphatic fashion at Royal Portrush. Perhaps a three-year stint as the Open champion is in the offing.

Lowry has played some superb golf over the last four months, raising his game as his title defence approached, starting with eighth spot in the Players Championship at Sawgrass. Fourth place in the US PGA Championship, where he dazzled in round four alongside Ryder Cup captain Padraig Harrington, was another highlight. Harrington won back-to-back Opens in 2007-08 - and his compatriot can do likewise.

Lowry, who closed his Irish Open warm-up event with a 66, relishes links combat and can lead the European challenge at St George's. He won the 2009 Irish Open as an amateur on a links and the forecast breezes hold no fears for him.

Other selections

Branden Grace 60-1

Harris English 75-1

Abraham Ancer 75-1

Stewart Cink 140-1

Four others appeal at healthy odds for an event where 12 each-way places are available with two firms. Branden Grace has a strong record of links success to draw upon, including his 2012 Dunhill Links Championship victory. And on his way to sixth place in the 2017 Open at Birkdale, the South African carded a Saturday 62, the lowest round in Major history.

Both of Grace's PGA Tour victories have come at coastal tracks and he is in his element when the wind is blowing, excelling with a low ball-flight, underlined by dual desert glory in Qatar. After fourth place in the Memorial and seventh spot in the US Open, followed by a gentle warm-up in Scotland last week in which he was finding fairways with ease over the weekend, the nine-time European Tour champ could be ready for a Major breakthrough.

Harris English, who won the Travelers Championship last time out, could also go close to a first Major title on Sunday. English, victorious on what was then the Nationwide Tour when still an amateur, always seemed destined for stardom. With four PGA Tour titles under his belt - and US Open results of 4-3 from the last two years - English is starting to live up to his early promise.

The Sea Island man, 15th in the 2013 Open, has the all-round quality to handle this assignment, while the same can be said of Abraham Ancer, who proved himself on the big stage when joint-top scorer in the 2019 Presidents Cup.

Ancer, based in Texas and comfortable in a breeze, won the 2018 Australian Open by five shots and the cocksure Mexican can approach another overseas mission with confidence this week. There was no disgrace in a missed cut on the mark at Portrush in the last Open and this time the 30-year-old tees up with some fantastic summer form behind him. Fifth place in the Valspar Championship was followed by second in the Wells Fargo, eighth in the US PGA, and fourth in the Travelers Championship last time out.

Veterans often thrive in the Open, highlighted by victories for 40-somethings Clarke, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson over the last decade, and Mickelson showed when winning the US PGA in May that age is no barrier to Major success. Experience counts for plenty in the Open and Tom Watson almost won it aged 59 at Turnberry in 2009.

This year's grand old stager may be Stewart Cink, who beat Watson in that famous Turnberry playoff. As well as his Open glory, Cink has finished third in each of the Stateside Majors, and the 48-year-old still has plenty to offer.

Cink won the Safeway Open last year and the RBC Heritage in April, loving life with his son Reagan as caddie, and the Alabama man's 22nd Open appearance could be a memorable one. Sandwich Open form of 34-30 is useful.

Royal St George's course guide

Course Royal St George's, Sandwich, Kent, England
Prize money $11.5m ($2.07m to the winner)
Length 7,189 yards
Par 70
Field 156
Course records- 72 holes 267 Greg Norman (1993 Open) 18 holes 63 Nick Faldo (1993 Open)

Course winners taking part Danny Willett (2007 English Amateur), Darren Clarke (2011 Open)

When to bet By 6.35am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 6.30am on Thursday

The cut The top 70 plus ties advance to the third round

Playoff A three-hole playoff for all players tied for the lead after 72 holes, with playoff continuing as sudden-death if players remain tied after the three holes

Last week - Scottish Open 1 M W Lee (160-1), T2 T Detry (110-1), M Fitzpatrick (30-1), T4 L Herbert (55-1), R Palmer (80-1), I Poulter (60-1), 7 J Rahm (15-2), 8 J Thomas (20-1), J Veerman (150-1); John Deere Classic 1 L Glover (55-1), T2 R Moore (60-1), K Na (40-1), T4 A Schenk (175-1) L List (100-1), S Brown (200-1), S Munoz (66-1)

Spectator quota 32,000 per day

Course type Links

Course overview Royal St George's has hosted 14 Open Championships, most recently in 1993, 2003 and 2011, with Greg Norman, Ben Curtis and Darren Clarke claiming the famous Claret Jug, their winning scores 13 under, one under and five under respectively. The layout was designed by Laidlaw Purves in 1887. There are only two par-fives - the seventh and the 14th. Two of the four par-threes are extremely long - the 239-yard third and the 238-yard 11th. But only two of the 12 par-fours are long by modern standards - the 491-yard fourth and the 496-yard 15th. St George's is one of the most challenging Open venues, with undulating terrain, dunes and deep bunkers. All the holes point in different directions, so judging winds is difficult, while any approaches hit towards the edges of the greens will drop into run-off areas. Many bunkers have been raised in preparation for this championship, enhancing visibility from the tees.

Story of 2019 The event turned into a duel between Shane Lowry and Tommy Fleetwood at Royal Portrush, with the inspired Irishman eventually finishing 15 under par, six shots ahead of the Englishman.

Weather forecast Four similar days are expected for the competition - a largely sunny week, with temperatures around 20C and moderate breezes throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge Punters should be siding with accurate drivers, who can find the heavily undulating fairways and stay out of the extremely penal Sandwich rough. Greg Norman, arguably the best driver of his generation, humbled the track in 1993. Ben Curtis (2003 champ) was a fairway-finder, while Darren Clarke (2011) was also a master off the tee. Straight-hitting seems the key to success.

Key attribute Accuracy

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