Steve Palmer's Open Championship predictions and free golf betting tips

When does the Open Championship start?

6.35am on Thursday

Where to watch the Open Championship

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 6.30am on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Open Championship predictions

Jon Rahm
4pts each-way 12-1 bet365, BoyleSports

Brooks Koepka
3pts each-way 20-1 bet365, BoyleSports

Dustin Johnson
2pts each-way 30-1 bet365, BoyleSports

Adam Scott
1pt each-way 80-1 BoyleSports

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McIlroy-mania has struck at Hoylake after his Scottish Open triumph on Sunday and many punters are anticipating a Rory repeat at Royal Liverpool. Rory McIlroy is the only course winner in the field this week and the Northern Irishman is proving popular at 7-1.The advice is to resist the urge to join the McIlroy plunge. His birdie-birdie finish at the Renaissance Club on Sunday was spectacular given the difficulty of those holes, but it was a draining Scottish Open and he comes with no performance guarantee a week later.

McIlroy looked in equally fine fettle in the lead-up to the Masters in April, then flopped badly, the pressure of ending a Major-winning drought which has stretched to almost a decade proving too much to bear.

World number one Scottie Scheffler must be bubbling over with frustration – the best ball-striking form of his career looking likely to yield no 2023 Major success due to his putting woes – and he can be overlooked at short odds in just his third Open start.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Jon Rahm 12-1

The front two in the Open betting appear on the skinny side, but double-figure quotes about Jon Rahm are more than acceptable, and the Masters champion looks a rock-solid each-way investment for the Royal Liverpool showpiece.

Rahm's decision to skip the Scottish Open looks a shrewd one given the way the tournament panned out, with wake-up calls in the early hours of the morning for the Renaissance Club competitors on Saturday and Sunday. Tee times were brought forward, then the players had to battle strong winds, so many of the elite left Scotland feeling jaded.

With rain and breeze in the Open forecast, the freshness of Rahm may prove decisive over 72 holes. He sharpened up his links game in Ireland last week, like Tiger Woods used to do prior to the Open, and Rahm is fond of this type of golf.

Rahmbo has twice won the Irish Open on links terrain – at Portstewart by a six-shot margin in 2017, then at Lahinch by two shots in 2019 – and the Spaniard has slowly but surely developed into an Open contender. He was 11th in 2019 and third in 2021.

The 28-year-old is a two-time Major champion who can follow his April Masters victory by lifting the Claret Jug. Rahm has won four times on the PGA Tour this year – two more than Scheffler and three more than McIlroy.

Woods did the Masters-Open double in 2005, following the example of his pal Mark O'Meara in 1998. Rahm, eager to follow in the footsteps of three-time Open champion Seve Ballesteros, can claim the third leg of a career Grand Slam of Majors this week.

Next best bet

Brooks Koepka 20-1

There are only 14 players in the history of golf who have won more Majors than Brooks Koepka and the Floridian is only 33 years of age. The five-time Major champion should go close to a sixth success on Sunday.

Koepka has been producing some of the best golf of his career since getting fully fit at the start of this year and knuckling down with his swing coach Claude Harmon. Victory in LIV Golf Orlando at the start of April was followed by second place in the Masters, then he won the US PGA in May. He has been a leaderboard regular on the LIV circuit and finished 17th in the US Open on a course he hated.

Koepka's Open record is rock-solid. He was tenth in 2015, sixth in 2017, fourth in 2019 and sixth in 2021, registering four top-tens in his last six Opens. A share of 67th place at Hoylake in 2014 was a useful sighter of this week's venue. He was world number 80 going into that event – a PGA Tour maiden and a DP World Tour maiden – but returns as an entirely different animal.

A repeat of the Rahm-Koepka Masters one-two seems entirely feasible. Ricky Elliott, an excellent links golfer in his own right and a Royal Portrush member, is the perfect caddie for Koepka in Open assignments.

Other selections

Dustin Johnson 30-1
Adam Scott 80-1

Like Rahm and Koepka, Dustin Johnson may benefit from a relaxed Open build-up. Johnson has always looked a good enough links golfer to get his hands on the Claret Jug, boasting seven top-15 finishes from his 13 Open starts.

Johnson was second in 2011, then 12th at Hoylake in 2014, carding a round-two 65 which remains a share of the course record. In the last two Opens, he has finished eighth and sixth, and the two-time Major champion arrives on the links this time off the back of a hugely encouraging ball-striking display in the US Open.

Tenth place at LACC followed victory in LIV Golf Tulsa, and DJ was fifth last time out in LIV Golf London. He has slowly but surely moved up the gears over the last five months and appears to be peaking for Hoylake.

Complete a quartet of former world number ones with Adam Scott. Like Rahm, Koepka, and Johnson, Scott has already proved he has the mettle to become a Major champion, claiming the Green Jacket in 2013.

Nine months prior to his Masters glory, Scott had the Open title at his mercy at Lytham, but he closed with four consecutive bogeys to lose by a shot. He kept threatening the Jug, finishing third in 2013, fifth at Hoylake in 2014 and tenth in 2015. The Aussie has five Open top-tens on his record and two of them have come at Royal Liverpool, where he was eighth in 2006.

Scott is a proven Open performer in superb nick. He was fifth in the Wells Fargo Championship in May, then eighth in the Byron Nelson, 29th in the US PGA, ninth in the Memorial and 19th in the Travelers Championship.

Last week's Scottish Open missed cut was down to one nightmare hole – Scott took eight shots at the 16th in round one – but he carded a Friday 67 to finish just a shot shy of qualification. Missing the Renaissance weekend could prove a blessing in disguise. The 43-year-old is efficient with the broomhandle putter these days – he is 23rd on the PGA Tour putting average stats – and the 14-time PGA Tour champion appears magnificent each-way value.

Royal Liverpool course guide

Course Royal Liverpool, Hoylake, Merseyside, England
Prize money $16.5m ($3m to the winner)
Length 7,383 yards
Par 71 – three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 156 The cut Top 70 and ties after two rounds qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Jon Rahm (3), Patrick Cantlay (4), Viktor Hovland (5)
Course records - 72 holes 270 Tiger Woods (2006) 18 holes 65 Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, Chris DiMarco, Sergio Garcia, Dustin Johnson, Chris Wood, Shane Lowry, Marc Leishman, Jim Furyk

Course winner taking part Rory McIlroy

When to bet By 6.30am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 6.30am on Thursday

Playoff A three-hole playoff for all players tied for the lead after 72 holes, with playoff continuing as sudden-death if players remain tied after the three holes

Last week – Scottish Open 1 R McIlroy (9-1), 2 R MacIntyre (90-1), T3 B H An (150-1), D Lingmerth (300-1), S Scheffler (7-1), T6 T Fleetwood (20-1), T Hatton (20-1), N Hojgaard (125-1), T Kim (55-1), JT Poston (200-1); Barbasol Championship 1 V Norrman (25-1), 2 N Kimsey (80-1), T3 A Saddier (110-1), T Cone (100-1), 5 L Glover (20-1), T Pendrith (18-1), T7 D Brown (150-1), G Murray (40-1)

Course type Links

Course overview Royal Liverpool GC, founded in 1869, has hosted 12 Opens, most recently in 2006 and 2014. Tiger Woods won the 2006 edition in bone-dry conditions, hitting just one driver all week, while Rory McIlroy triumphed eight years later on a much softer, rain-soaked layout. The rough is healthy this year due to showers in the build-up aiding growth, but this links drains well, so fast-running fairways are likely. Architects Martin Ebert and Tom Mackenzie have added new bunkers and tees for this championship, as well as shifting several fairways and greens. The tenth hole has become a par four (previously a five)

Story of last year A final-round 64 from Cameron Smith meant the Aussie claimed the Claret Jug at St Andrews. Rory McIlroy led going into the denouement, but made 16 Sunday pars, finishing third, with Cameron Young ending up sandwiched between Smith and McIlroy on the leaderboard

Weather forecast A mixture of sunshine and light rain every day. Moderate breezes for rounds one and two, getting lighter over the weekend. Temperatures around 16C throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge Tiger Woods won the 2006 Open by laying up short of bunkers off the tee and relying on accurate approaches. Precision iron-shots into the greens are arguably the key to Royal Liverpool success

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight 

The last ten Open winners were all inside the top 40 of the world rankings going into Open week

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