Steve Palmer's Open Championship final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event and Golf, 8am Sunday

Best bets

Rory McIlroy to win by three shots or more
2pts 9-4 Betfair, BoyleSports, Power

Cameron Smith betting without Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland
2pts 21-10 BoyleSports

Tyrrell Hatton to win 1.25pm twoball (4-7) and Shane Lowry to win 1.35pm twoball (4-6)
2pts double Betfair

Min Woo Lee to win 11.55am twoball
2pts 6-5 Betfred

Jordan Spieth top American
1pt 14-1 Betfair, Power

Story so far

Rory McIlroy is odds-on to win the 150th Open Championship at St Andrews, teeing off tied for the lead at 16 under par, seeking his first Major title since the 2014 US PGA.

McIlroy, easy to back at 11-1 win-only and 10-1 each-way on Open-eve, has carded rounds of 66, 68 and 66 to set up a golden chance of a second Open victory. He will walk the first hole of the famous Old Course at 2.50pm today looking to join the list of legends on the St Andrews honours board.

The four-time Major champion will have the same playing partner he had for round three - Viktor Hovland matched McIlroy's 54-hole total and the Ryder Cup colleagues have taken a stranglehold on the event.

There is a four-shot gap between McIlroy and Hovland and the rest of the field, with the Camerons - Smith and Young - tied for third place. Hovland is a 7-4 chance, while Smith is third in the betting at 12-1. World number one, Scottie Scheffler, is tied for fifth place.

Leaderboard
-16 Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy
-12 Cameron Young, Cameron Smith
-11 Si Woo Kim, Scottie Scheffler
-10 Dustin Johnson
-9 Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Adam Scott

Best prices
10-11 R McIlroy, 7-4 V Hovland, 12 C Smith, 22 S Scheffler, 25 C Young, 55 Si Woo Kim, D Johnson, 110 M Fitzpatrick, 125 T Fleetwood, 200 bar

Final-round preview

Rory McIlroy has oozed patience and poise over the last two days of the Open Championship - and a continuation of that calm, measured approach should be enough to send the Old Course hordes into raptures on Sunday evening.

The St Andrews regulars have got used to seeing the legends of the game lift the Claret Jug at this iconic venue. Jack Nicklaus, Seve Ballesteros, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods have won six of the last nine St Andrews Opens between them. Now, it appears, it is time for McIlroy to use the unique terrain of the Old Course to secure a fifth Major title and take his career to a new level, going level with Ballesteros for Major victories and one behind Faldo.

McIlroy was level par through four holes of round two this week, but there was no panic. He was level par through four holes of round three, having again opened with a quartet of pars, but the Northern Irishman was as cool as a cucumber. The birdies soon flowed as a man who has played links golf all his life cruised along one of his favourite tracks.

McIlroy has obviously had plenty of chances to win Majors in the eight years which have passed since his last one - and there is no getting away from how desperate he is to convert this opportunity - but none of the previous positions have been on a course he plays as well as St Andrews. The 33-year-old knows he can overwhelm this links with his power, touch and course knowledge, and he will expect to progress to 20 under par and beyond in round four.

The 2022 Open will have been on McIlroy's radar for ages as a prime target. The 2021 US PGA Championship at Kiawah Island was another event which looked promising, given McIlroy's 2012 success there, but that course had changed a lot in the nine years between visits. St Andrews has stayed the same - and it seems strong winds are the only way of stopping McIlroy tearing up this ancient venue.

McIlroy's second-round 80 in the 2010 Open at St Andrews came in gale-force winds - it was borderline unplayable - but there is nothing in the Sunday forecast for him to fret about. A pleasant denouement, with gentle breezes, is expected.

Tiger Woods finished on 19 under par in 2000 for the greatest St Andrews effort in history, while Henrik Stenson reached 20 under at Royal Troon in 2016 to record the Open's lowest 72-hole total. McIlroy, if he stays in the zone of the previous three days, should have both targets within his compass.

McIlroy lifted the Jug at Hoylake in 2014 and he is the only Open champion in the top ten on the leaderboard. The world number two is full of confidence in every department of his game and it would take a significant form dip to throw a bone to those in third place or worse. McIlroy has been picking up easy birdies at the two par-fives and the driveable par-fours, so if that continues, those at 12 under par or worse are going to require a ridiculously low round to enter the equation.

The putting ability of Cameron Smith means he is the main candidate for the round in the low-60s which applies pressure to McIlroy and Viktor Hovland. Any loose shots early from Smith, though, and this event may quickly turn into a duel between the pair at the top.
Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson fought out a thrilling battle in a low-scoring Open at Troon in 2016. Maybe something similar will unfold at the Home of Golf, but much depends on whether Hovland is up to the task.

This is obviously a class act, but Hovland has been in poor form for four months, and he seems as surprised as anyone to be tied for the lead with 18 holes to play. He had never seen St Andrews prior to this week, admittedly soaking up the venue and the atmosphere, carrying low expectations as to performance.

As is so often the case with the peculiar human brainbox, low expectations can often result in high performance due to the lack of pressure it creates, but the dynamics have surely changed through 54 holes. Hovland knows he has the chance to become Norway's first Major champion - at the most famous course in the world - and the pressure cooker has been turned up to the max.

Hovland says he is going to "have fun" in the final round, but these words are unconvincing. No matter how good you are and how young you are, great chances to win an Open at St Andrews hardly ever arrive, and Hovland will do well to hold his nerve.

Of course, McIlroy has the same mental challenge, but he has four Major victories to draw upon and a game which has been weakness-free in the build-up. Hovland has never even had a top-ten finish in a Major and his game was in tatters - by his high standards - from the Players Championship until this week.

A lot has gone the way of Hovland this week - his remarkable hole-out for eagle at the par-four 15th in round two the most obvious example - and it feels like he needs Lady Luck on his side to defeat McIlroy in round four. The vast majority of the spectators will be on McIlroy's side, adding another layer of difficulty to the mission Hovland faces.

McIlroy was Racing Post Sport's headline pre-tournament recommendation at 10-1. How punters with a healthy wager on McIlroy approach the final round has a lot to do with personal finances. He seems by far the most likely winner - and 10-11 is an oddly generous Sunday offer chalked up by some firms - but anyone uncomfortable with letting their bet ride to the line can have some cover. Hovland, then Smith appear the biggest dangers, so some 7-4 and 12-1 can calm the waters.

More attacking punters may want to consider the 9-4 about McIlroy winning by three shots or more. When the little master is frontrunning with his game in such good nick, he is capable of galloping to the line, highlighted by eight-shot victories in his first two Major wins.

Smith seems a fair price at 21-10 in the market without McIlroy and Hovland. Smith did not react well to the pressure of frontrunning on Saturday, but will fancy his chances of securing third spot.

Final-round twoball punters are pointed towards Tyrrell Hatton and Shane Lowry - two men who have proved themselves at St Andrews through the years - against American raiders Trey Mullinax and Brian Harman. The double seems a bargain, paying almost 13-8.

Rising star Min Woo Lee, last year's Scottish Open champion, can further advertise his links comfort by defeating Sahith Theegala in the 11.55am match, while Jordan Spieth is worth chancing in the top American market.

Cameron Young, Scottie Scheffler and Dustin Johnson stalled on Saturday - their Open bids faltering - while Spieth finally got going after a slow start. Spieth was agitated and sloppy over the first two days, but appears to have a weekend charge in him at a course which sets up well for him. The 2017 Open champion could easily end up as top Yank with a low final round.

Join Steve Palmer and Bruce Millington on the Racing Post YouTube channel at 2.30pm today for a final-round Open Championship watchalong.

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