Steve Palmer's Open Championship final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the Open Championship

Sky Sports Golf, 11am Sunday

Best bets

Jon Rahm without Brian Harman
3pts 7-2 Coral, Ladbrokes

Cameron Young to win 2.15pm twoball
2pts 5-6 bet365

Thomas Detry to win 1.25pm twoball
1pt 13-8 Coral, Ladbrokes

Story so far

Brian Harman leads the Open Championship at Royal Liverpool by five shots going into the final round and the American left-hander is no bigger than 8-15 to convert that advantage into a first Major title.

Harman, who arrived at the Open full of form and confidence, finished runner-up in the 2017 US Open in Wisconsin, but he had never previously contended in the Open, with a distant sixth place last year his best result.

A final-round 66 at St Andrews 12 months ago meant the Georgia man finished seven shots behind a triumphant Cameron Smith, but this time Harman goes into the final round in command, having followed rounds of 67 and 65, with a Saturday 69. He was 110-1 on tournament eve.

Cameron Young, runner-up behind Smith in the last Open, is alone in second place going into the Royal Liverpool denouement. St Andrews was Young's Open debut, so he has taken to this tournament like the proverbial duck to water.

Young can be backed at 8-1 to claim the Claret Jug, while Jon Rahm, who is alone in third place, is a 7-1 chance to overcome a six-shot final-round deficit for a third Major success. Harman and Young tee off at 2.15pm in the final twoball.

Open Championship leaderboard

-12 Brian Harman
-7 Cameron Young
-6 Jon Rahm
-5 Viktor Hovland, Antoine Rozner, Jason Day, Sepp Straka, Tommy Fleetwood
-4 Alex Fitzpatrick, Shubhankar Sharma
-3 Thomas Detry, Tom Kim, Nicolai Hojgaard, Matthew Jordan, Rory McIlroy, Emiliano Grillo

Best odds for the Open Championship

8-15 B Harman, 7 J Rahm, 8 C Young, 20 V Hovland, 25 T Fleetwood, 33 J Day, 45 R McIlroy, 50 S Straka, 80 A Rozner, 200 bar

Open Championship final-round predictions

Brian Harman clicked into top gear at the perfect time for the Open Championship, finishing second in the Travelers Championship a month ago, then ninth in the Rocket Mortgage Classic and 12th in the Scottish Open.

The 36-year-old made his Open debut at Royal Liverpool in 2014, sharing 26th place, and has form figures of 19-6 from the last two Opens. With his low ball-flight and short-game class, plenty of punters could have foreseen Harman getting on the Hoylake leaderboard.

Those that resisted taking the three-figure pre-tournament prices, though, doubtless did so because they could not imagine Harman retaining enough Sunday composure to get the job done. He has never seemed an elite golfer. He has never played for his country in a Ryder Cup or Presidents Cup and he has missed 13 cuts in 29 Major starts, posting only two top-tens.

Harman has won two humdrum PGA Tour titles – the 2014 John Deere Classic and the 2017 Wells Fargo Championship (the year it was played at Eagle Point rather than Quail Hollow, and long before it became an elevated event).

The punters who failed to pull the trigger with Open outright bets, though, could not have dreamed a scenario where Harman was five shots clear with 18 holes to play. Has he built up such a buffer that even with the likely negative reaction to Sunday pressure, he will still get his hands on the Jug?

Probably. The Hoylake weather forecast suggests there will be rain throughout the final round – and Harman should face an hour or two of heavy stuff. Some holes will play long for this short hitter, but he can play conservatively to protect his lead, managing the course.

The key to Open Sunday is whether one of the chasing pack can produce a late gallop to increase pressure on the leader. Harman could easily implode in a tight finish, but will it get tight?

A strong finish was anticipated from Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament headline recommendation Jon Rahm – and the Spaniard looks the most likely to throw down the gauntlet to Harman. Rahm seemed the best bet at the start of the week at 12-1, and the 7-1 with 18 holes to play is a tempting press-up option. After a month away from competition, Rahm was entitled to get stronger as the week wore on, and so it has proved, with rounds of 74, 70 and 63.

The world number three was exasperated, like many others, with the Thursday bunker set-up, and suffered more than most. The afternoon starters in round one got a rough deal, with dry bunkers causing balls to run up the face. The R&A changed the bunker set-up for round two.

A course-record Saturday sizzler has put Rahm in position to hunt down Harman. If Rahm's name gets close to Harman's on the leaderboard, the long-time pacesetter would be likely to tighten up considerably. Rahm is a proven performer on Major Sundays, who is looking to claim a third leg towards a career Grand Slam by lifting the Jug.

Harman and Cameron Young, a PGA Tour maiden, will probably be a final twoball full of tension. Rahm and Viktor Hovland in the penultimate group could be the opposite – two immense ball-strikers enjoying their free hit at a potentially fragile frontrunner.

Rahm and Hovland are the most appealing in the 'without Harman' market – at 5-2 and 15-2 respectively. Expect positive strides from both, with Hovland having finished runner-up in the US PGA in May, clearly a Major champion in waiting. Taking both prices could be a worthwhile tactic – each-way terms of a fifth the first three are generally available – but Rahm is the preference of the pair.

Young looks a fair price for the 2.15pm twoball, with Harman likely playing defensively and with the ultimate golfing pressure on his shoulders, while Thomas Detry, a playoff loser in the 2021 Scottish Open, looks a value outsider against Tom Kim (1.25pm).

Detry has improved as this event has progressed, with rounds of 74, 69 and 67, and the Belgian appears ready for a finishing flourish. Kim, who injured his ankle on Thursday and described himself on Friday afternoon as “barely walking”, seems a vulnerable odds-on favourite.

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport