Steve Palmer's US Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 1pm Sunday

Best bets

Louis Oosthuizen top-five finish
2pts 10-11 Coral, Ladbrokes

Webb Simpson to win twoball
2pts 8-11 general

Story so far

Matthew Wolff is a 7-4 chance to become the youngest Major winner since Tiger Woods won the Masters in 1997. The 21-year-old leads by two shots going into the final round of the US Open at Winged Foot, New York.

Wolff, perhaps inspired by the exploits of 23-year-old Collin Morikawa winning the US PGA Championship last month, fired a third-round 65 which included six birdies. Wolff finished fourth in the US PGA, which was his Major debut, and victory at Winged Foot would make him the first US Open debutant to triumph in 107 years.

Bryson DeChambeau, another American seeking a Major breakthrough, is alone in second place, with former Open champion Louis Oosthuizen in third spot. Halfway pacesetter Patrick Reed slumped to a 77 to fall into a tie for 11th place, eight shots adrift, while Justin Thomas carded a 76 to leave himself a nine-shot Sunday mountain to climb.

World number one Dustin Johnson is five over par, ten shots behind, so requires a serious stumbles from the leaders to have any chance. The pre-tournament favourite has drifted to 300-1.

Leaderboard
-5 Matthew Wolff
-3 Bryson DeChambeau
-1 Louis Oosthuizen
Par Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Harris English
+1 Rory McIlroy

Selected others
+2 Viktor Hovland
+3 Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed
+4 Justin Thomas
+5 Dustin Johnson

Best prices
7-4 M Wolff, 12-5 B DeChambeau, 10 X Schauffele, L Oosthuizen, 14 R McIlroy, H Matsuyama, 22 H English, 80 V Hovland, 125 W Simpson, 150 J Thomas, P Reed, Z Johnson, 200 bar

Final-round analysis

The omens are good for Matthew Wolff - a debutant won the last time the US Open was staged in September (1913) and it has never happened since. But freakish statistics aside, it is no wonder that market-makers are still happily offering odds-against about the leader.

Carding a 65 on such a difficult course is obviously a huge feather in the cap of Wolff and he has made an amazing start to his Majors career. It is one of the greatest starts to a Major career in the history of the game, in fact, and retaining first place through the final 18 holes would put him on course to become a superstar of the sport.

But Wolff rode his luck a lot at Winged Foot on Saturday, missing countless fairways, and his score could have been much worse had he not ended up in so many fortunate lies in rough. On the 18th hole, Lady Luck was smiling broadly over his ball as his drive took an incredible bounce out of the heavy rough back into the fairway, setting up a closing birdie.

Wolff is brilliant at launching his ball out of juicy rough with his steep angle of attack, but the suspicion is that he will have to tighten up his driving significantly to have hopes of successfully defending his advantage, as the USGA seem likely to set their course up as difficult as possible for the denouement. Level par is always traditionally the desired winning total for the USGA and five under through 54 holes will offend their eye. Expect tough pin positions and firm greens, much easier to access from the fairway.

Wolff and Bryson DeChambeau have plenty of history, despite the former only recently joining the circuit. Avid golf fans will never forget the look on DeChambeau's face when Wolff made a final-hole eagle to win the 3M Open last year. DeChambeau had just made an eagle of his own and thought he was a banker for at least a playoff, but Wolff ended up pipping the Tour's cockiest operator by a shot.

Two and a half months ago, DeChambeau got his revenge. Wolff took a final-round lead into Sunday at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, but finished runner-up, a closing 65 from DeChambeau enough for a cosy three-shot success.

They are from the same state, but it is safe to say the Californian duo are not the best of friends - not that the arrogant and controversial DeChambeau is particularly friendly with anyone on the Tour - and there should be all manner of tension in the final twoball at Winged Foot. Two Major maidens with big egos could bubble over mentally. They did not play together in the 3M Open or Rocket Mortgage events mentioned - but this time they go eyeball to eyeball, and both could suffer.

DeChambeau, angry and vocal for most of his third round, was unconvincing in round three, generally erratic, with one putt dropping which he had given up on, and only his biggest fans will trust him at a general 9-4 to be composed enough to claim the trophy.

On a sunny but cool Sunday, with light breezes throughout, the champion may emerge from the groups preceding the Wolff and DeChambeau twoball (6.30pm UK and Ireland time). Presidents Cup pals Louis Oosthuizen and Hideki Matsuyama should slip quickly into a rhythm, while Xander Schauffele and Harris English is a healthy combination of two typically calm, reserved, understated operators who should enjoy one another's company.

Oosthuizen, Matsuyama and Schauffele can be fancied to find more fairways than the leading duo and slowly but surely cut into their deficits. Oosthuizen is the Major champion of the trio, but the only one who has never won a PGA Tour event in America, so it is difficult to distinguish between them.

With Matsuyama winless anywhere since the August, 2017, Bridgestone Invitational, and Schauffele receiving a huge boost to morale with a final-hole birdie after a scrappy third-round back-nine, the order of preference is Schauffele, Oosthuizen, Matsuyama.

Schauffele, recommended by Racing Post Sport at the pre-tournament at 16-1, is full of form and confidence. His US Open record highlights his suitability to this assignment and he seems the most likely to take advantage should Wolff and DeChambeau wilt from the front.

Oosthuizen could end up the biggest hurdle to overcome. That lack of Stateside success, though, is significant, as is the series of near-misses the man from Mossel Bay has suffered in Majors since he won one. Oosthuizen has registered four second places since becoming Open champ in 2010 - and he could end up the bridesmaid again. The 10-11 about him finishing in the top five seems a solid investment. Turning third place into a top five should be within his compass.

Schauffele, Oosthuizen, Matsuyama, and even Rory McIlroy from six behind, seem better value options than the front two.

Final-round twoball punters are pointed towards Webb Simpson, who has been enjoying the grind of Winged Foot and showing off his improved short-game skills on these crazy dancefloors. Simpson can account for Joaquin Niemann in the 5.24pm match.

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