Steve Palmer's Spanish Open predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Spanish Open at Club de Campo on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Best bets

Adri Arnaus
2pts each-way 45-1 general
Guido Migliozzi
2pts each-way 33-1 bet365
Matti Schmid
1.5pts each-way 50-1 bet365
Maximilian Kieffer
1pt each-way 175-1 bet365
Francesco Laporta
1pt each-way 125-1 Betfred

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Jon Rahm is 9-4 favourite for the Spanish Open and many pundits believe the world number one just has to turn up at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid to successfully defend his title and complete a hat-trick of national Open triumphs. He has a superb record in regulation European Tour events.

Rahm was a flopping 4-1 favourite in the Fortinet Championship in his last strokeplay start though - missing the cut by two shots and putting abysmally. This week seems certain to see a low-scoring event on a short track with only three par-fives and the venue may not be difficult enough for Rahm to demonstrate his superiority.

Ball-striking is Rahm's great strength - he finished 42nd in the PGA Tour putting statistics last season - and backing him at such short odds on an easy course is an unappealing prospect. Everything worked out in 2019, but he putted really well that week, topping the putts-per-greens-in-regulation stats. There is no guarantee he repeats that flat-stick form. The straightforward nature of the track is a great leveller.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Adri Arnaus 45-1

Preference at the prices is for each-way investments on five players who could trouble the favourite. Adri Arnaus, who is a good friend of Rahm's and grew up competing alongside him, can upset the market leader.

Arnaus is not intimidated by Rahm. They were in the same threeball for the first two rounds of the 2019 Spanish Open - and Arnaus beat Rahm by a shot on both days. Arnaus went on to finish fourth in the event, confirming his liking for the course, and some encouraging recent form suggests the powerhouse can go close again this week.

Arnaus finished 12th in the Italian Open a month ago, before missing the cut by a shot at Wentworth, a course which does not suit him at all. Last week, he tied for 24th place in the Dunhill Links, which was a solid effort considering he got unlucky with the draw and had to tee up at a windswept Carnoustie in round two. A Carnoustie 76 ruined the 26-year-old Barcelona man's Dunhill campaign, but he is clearly in decent nick and is putting with more belief than ever.

A suspect putting stroke was the main weakness of Arnaus, but he has worked hard on it and made sensational progress this year. This season he lies third on Tour for putts per greens-in-regulation, and sixth for strokes-gained putting.

Arnaus loves teeing up in his homeland - he tied second in the 2019 Andalucia Masters and fourth in the Canary Islands Championship in May - and a birdie barrage can be expected in Madrid.

Next best bet

Guido Migliozzi 33-1

Arnaus would probably relish a Sunday battle with Rahm for the silverware - and the same can be said of two-time European Tour champion Guido Migliozzi. The ever improving Italian finished fourth in the US Open on his Major debut in June and has been second three times on the European Tour this year.

Migliozzi, who was sixth in the Andalucia Masters last year, warmed up for the Spanish Open with 17th place in the Dunhill Links. He has shown a great ability to harness his power well on tighter tracks and the 24-year-old could easily fall in love with Club de Campo on his first visit.

Other selections

Matti Schmid 50-1

Maximilian Kieffer 175-1

Francesco Laporta 125-1

Matti Schmid, who has opted to officially shorten his first name from Matthias, has quickly made a serious impression on the European Tour and looks a winner waiting to happen. This supreme ball-striker, who twice won the European Amateur Championship, was 14th in the BMW International in June before finishing as low amateur in the Open at Sandwich.

Schmid was runner-up in the Dutch Open, then ninth in the Dunhill Links, which was a fantastic effort given he had to face Carnoustie in those strong Friday winds which derailed Arnaus. Schmid carded a 68 on the notoriously tough track.

Another German, Maximilian Kieffer, is also worth considering. Kieffer suffered a Friday 75 at Carnoustie and missed the cut - but he always misses the Dunhill cut and is ill-equipped for links golf. His previous outing resulted in 15th place in the Dutch Open and this straight hitter loves competing in Spain. Kieffer was a playoff loser in the 2013 Spanish Open, then runner-up in Spain again in April when only Garrick Higgo was too good for him in the Gran Canaria Lopesan Open.

Kieffer, a playoff loser in the Austrian Open in April, finished fifth in the 2014 Spanish Open and fifth in the 2018 Andalucia Masters.

Another accurate operator, Francesco Laporta, also appeals as a lively each-way prospect. The Italian is full of beans having secured his European Tour future with a burst of September brilliance. Fourth place in the Italian Open was followed by sixth in the BMW PGA. He was also fourth in the Irish Open in July.

Laporta, like Kieffer, does not enjoy the Dunhill Links, so a missed cut there is of no concern. Laporta won the Challenge Tour Grand Final in Spain in 2019 and could celebrate his 31st birthday on Sunday with more silverware in the same country.

Players to note

Bernd Wiesberger
The Austrian makes his first appearance since his Ryder Cup debut. He suffered three matches and three defeats at Whistling Straits.

Santiago Tarrio
The Spaniard won twice on the Challenge Tour in the summer, including the Challenge de Espana. He may feature on the leaderboard at some stage this week.

Club de Campo course guide

Course Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Prize money €1.5m (€250,000 to the winner)
Length 7,112 yards
Par 71
Field 132
Course records- 72 holes 261 Raphael Jacquelin (2005 Madrid Open) 18 holes 60 Ivo Giner (2005 Madrid Open)

Course winners taking part Raphael Jacquelin, Jon Rahm

When to bet By 7.40am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Time difference Spain is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Dunhill Links Championship 1 D Willett (100-1), T2 J Lagergren (100-1), T Hatton (18-1), T4 R Bland (100-1), S Lowry (16-1), 6 D Gavins (500-1), T7 D Burmester (66-1), T Fleetwood (16-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Javier Arana designed Black Course at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid has hosted 12 European Tour events in the modern era – the Spanish Open in 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1996 and 2019, and the Madrid Open from 2001-2005, and the Madrid Masters in 2008, which was won by Charl Schwartzel at 19 under par. Raphael Jacquelin reached 23 under when winning the 2005 Madrid Open - and Jon Rahm was a shot worse than that last year - so the European Tour stars face an easy assignment this week. There are only three par-fives – the fourth, seventh and 14th – but all are there for the taking with straight hitting. And three short par-fours – the eighth, 15th and 18th – are also great birdie opportunities. The 505-yard par-four first hole is the most challenging, while the third and the 11th are par-threes which will not yield many birdies. The tree-lined, undulating track has small greens and some stunning views over the city of Madrid

Story of 2019 Jon Rahm romped to a five-shot victory, successfully defending his title at Club de Campo, with his compatriot Rafael Cabrera-Bello a distant runner-up

Weather forecast Sunny with hardly any breeze throughout - temperatures ranging from lows of 12C (early morning) to highs of 23C (late afternoon)

Type of player suited to the challenge Club de Campo looks vulnerable, with perfect weather expected, so a hot putter and four low scores are probably going to be needed for success

Key attribute Touch

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