Steve Palmer's Spanish Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

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Sky Sports Golf, 12pm Sunday

Best bets

Min Woo Lee without Jon Rahm
2pts 8-5 BoyleSports

Story so far

Jon Rahm stayed on course to complete a hat-trick of Spanish Open victories by carding a Saturday 65 in front of adoring galleries at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid.

Rahm, available at 5-2 in win-only markets ante-post and a general 9-4 in standard outright betting, has become a 4-7 chance with 18 holes to play in the Spanish capital.

Rahm is seeking to match the Spanish Open record of Seve Ballesteros, who died with three national titles to his name. Rahm has retained favouritism throughout the tournament, having opened with a 64 on Thursday, and a two-putt birdie at the 18th hole of round three kept the local hero in command.

Min Woo Lee matched the last-gasp birdie of Rahm, meaning the Australian is only a shot behind. There is a six-way tie for third place, two shots further off the pace. The final threeball, comprising Rahm, Lee and Louis de Jager, will tee off at 1pm local time (noon UK and Ireland) on Sunday. Another sunny, calm, pleasant day is forecast.

Leaderboard
-16 Jon Rahm
-15 Min Woo Lee
-13 Louis de Jager, Marc Warren, Eddie Pepperell, Matthieu Pavon, Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Stephen Gallacher

Best prices
4-7 J Rahm, 7-2 M W Lee, 18 E Pepperell, 20 K Aphibarnrat, 22 L De Jager, M Pavon, 40 S Gallacher, 50 bar

Final-round preview

Jon Rahm and Min Woo Lee have separated themselves from the chasing pack in Madrid and the market is probably right to go 18-1 bar the front two. It is difficult to imagine both Rahm and Lee being passed on Sunday.

Rahm was a confident pre-tournament Racing Post Sport recommendation - and it is irksome that Lee has produced such a solid performance to stay with the Spaniard. The Australian, who has played alongside Rahm over each of the first three rounds, did not drop a shot in round three.

Lee has putted well this week, but Rahm backers will be hoping Sunday tension creeps into the stroke. Defeating the local hero in a Sunday duel in front of partisan Spanish galleries is an enormous challenge, particularly starting with a one-shot deficit.

Lee has struggled to string four rounds together this year. For example, last month, a 76 in the BMW PGA was followed by a 62, then a 70. In August, a first-round 63 in the opening Korn Ferry Tour Finals event turned into an eventual tie for 26th place.

Galloping for 72 holes has proved beyond Lee this year, so Rahm supporters can be hopeful that Lee will fail to sustain his challenge to the favourite. Lee is gifted and is a 24-year-old with a hugely bright future, but the odd loose shot and missed pressure putt may swing the contest Rahm's way in round four.

Rahm has looked generally assured since escaping with a par on the sixth hole of round two. He got away with a sliced drive there, having covered the first five holes of round two in one over par, but has gone ten under par in his 30 holes since. It feels like the early stages of round two was Rahm's bad patch - and he has been largely imperious since.

It has been a close contest through 54 holes between Rahm and Lee, and prices of 4-7 and 7-2 seem about right. Lee may not quite be ready at this stage of his career to upset the Madrid galleries and take down a former world number one. There has been an intensity about Rahm this week - he is obsessed with matching Seve Ballesteros's Spanish Open hat-trick - and a lack of silverware this year has added to the desire.

Expect Rahm and his army of followers to have a satisfying day. The Mexico Open is the only tournament he has won this year, but he is ultra-comfortable at Club de Campo de Villa Madrid, where he cruised to a five-shot success in 2019.

The margin of victory may depend on how Lee reacts to the situation. Rahm has dominated the back nine this week (11 under par), while Lee has enjoyed most of his success on the front nine (12 under). If Lee settles early, he may be able to make the turn level or in front. If Rahm retains his lead to the turn, he will fancy his chances of kicking clear.

BoyleSports have issued a 'without Rahm' market - and hopefully other bookmakers will follow suit. The 8-5 chalked up about Lee seems more than fair. The youngster is a class act and anything in the 60s would give him a good chance of success in this market. A runner-up cheque may be the result of his daunting Sunday mission.

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