Steve Palmer's Dunhill Links Championship predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Best bets

Alex Noren
4pts each-way 16-1 bet365

Matthew Jordan
2pts each-way 70-1 Betfred

Nicolai Hojgaard
1.5pts each-way 80-1 Betfred

Grant Forrest
1pt each-way 175-1 bet365

Joakim Lagergren
1pt each-way 100-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

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Three crestfallen members of Europe's Ryder Cup side headline the betting for the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, but it is doubtful whether any of them will be able to get over the rigours of Whistling Straits in time to put in a worthwhile 72-hole shift in Scotland.

The Dunhill can be a test of fortitude at the best of times - with amateur partners making for marathon rounds and compulsory banter - but a trek from Wisconsin followed by some rough weather in the Fife and Angus forecast makes the returning Ryder Cuppers difficult to fancy.

Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton contributed a total of three-and-a-half points for Europe last week - and none were able to win their singles match on Sunday. Padraig Harrington (2002) and Martin Kaymer (2010) are the two men who have managed to win the Dunhill the week after Ryder Cup competition, but both represented Europe in a home match (Belfry and Celtic Manor), without any jet lag in their system.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Alex Noren 16-1

The trio who suffered a record defeat at the hands of a rampant United States last week are probably best left alone at short odds for the Dunhill, while Billy Horschel has much to prove on links terrain. The BMW PGA champion, clearly sensing the chance of Race to Dubai glory, has missed five of his seven Open cuts with a best finish of 30th place.

Expect a quiet Dunhill debut from Horschel and instead take the slightly bigger odds about Alex Noren, who relishes this assignment, is much fresher than most of his market rivals, and is equipped to handle anything the weather gods throw at him this week.

Noren has posted two Open top-tens and his last six starts in the Dunhill have yielded solid form figures of 17-39-3-40-11-15. The often challenging weather conditions do not worry the Scandinavians, who are used to teeing up on cold mornings. There have been 19 editions of the Dunhill Links and 16 of them have been won by players from the British Isles or Scandinavia.

Noren seems particularly comfortable in chilly climes - six of his ten European Tour victories have come in the British Isles or Scandinavia - and he won the 2016 Scottish Open on the Castle Stuart Links. Given how well he has been swinging this year, more silverware could be coming at the Home of Golf on Sunday.

Noren has been excelling in top-class company. In February, he finished 12th in the PGA Tour event at Riviera, he was 13th in the Memorial in June, fourth in the Rocket Mortgage Classic in July, then superb in the FedEx Cup playoffs - fourth in The Northern Trust and ninth in the BMW Championship, not quite making it to the Tour Championship.

The experienced 39-year-old closed with a 67 at Wentworth last time out, he is a superb operator in the wind, and he is highly motivated. Noren is 61st in the world rankings and getting into the top 50 by the end of the year will give him access to all the main events in 2022.

Next best bet

Matthew Jordan 70-1

Another great links exponent who has no fears about competing in a strong wind is Matthew Jordan, who grew up on the Wirral and is a long-time member of Royal Liverpool, Hoylake. He won the St Andrews Links Trophy in 2017, then the Lytham Trophy by nine shots in 2018.

Jordan's links ability showed straight away when he moved on to the European Tour - he was 15th in the 2019 British Masters at Hillside and fifth in the Dunhill Links later that year. In between those two events he won on the Challenge Tour in Italy - and this week seems an ideal opportunity for a European Tour breakthrough.

The 25-year-old has been looking good over the last three months, following 12th in the Irish Open with 18th in the Scottish Open and sixth in the Hero Open, which was played at Fairmont St Andrews, a ten-minute drive down the road from the Old Course. Fourth in the European Masters at Crans followed, then 15th in the Italian Open, before a missed cut on the mark on his BMW PGA debut last time out. Jordan is much better suited to this week's tracks and looks fantastic each-way value at the odds.

Other selections

Nicolai Hojgaard 80-1

Grant Forrest 175-1

Joakim Lagergren 100-1

There is only one Hojgaard brother in the field this week and Nicolai may take advantage of Rasmus's absence by moving only one European Tour victory behind his twin. Nicolai has been superb in recent weeks, following 21st in the Cazoo Classic with 17th in the Czech Masters, a gutsy maiden victory against a decent field in the Italian Open, then a creditable 20th place on his BMW PGA debut last time out.

Hojgaard, still only 20 and seemingly growing in confidence every day, won the 2018 European Amateur Championship on a links (Royal Hague) and was on a triumphant Eisenhower Trophy team in Ireland that year too. Expect the Danish dude to become a regular Dunhill contender over the next decade.

Complete a five-pronged attack with Grant Forrest and Joakim Lagergren. Forrest made his Tour breakthrough down the road at Fairmont St Andrews in the Hero Open at the start of last month - a gutsy effort to emerge triumphant from a congested leaderboard. There is no obvious reason why he should not go close to a St Andrews double this week.

Forrest is a proven links master - he won the 2012 Scottish Amateur at Royal Dornoch, then the 2014 St Andrews Links Trophy, before finishing runner-up in the 2015 Amateur Championship at Carnoustie. He was fourth in the Irish Open in July and can celebrate his five-year anniversary as a pro with another juicy cheque on Sunday.

Lagergren made an incredible debut in this event in 2015 when he was world number 387, firing a third-round 62 on his way to a share of fourth place. The Swede returned 12 months later, ranked 322nd in the world, and finished fourth again, underlining his suitability to this assignment, before a tie for 12th in 2017, followed by third place in 2019.

Lagergren appears to relish links golf and his only European Tour title, the 2018 Sicilian Open, came at Verdura, a seaside track designed by Kyle Phillips, who also created Kingsbarns. Phillips said his aim for Verdura was to craft something similar to an ancient Scottish links. Lagergren usually plays well in the wind and his only Challenge Tour title came in Northern Ireland.

Players to note

Adrian Meronk
The Pole, third in the Tenerife Open, third in the British Masters and second in the Italian Open, continues to strongly threaten a European Tour breakthrough.

Min Woo Lee
The Scottish Open champion enjoys links terrain and is a super-talented Aussie stalking a place in the world's top 50.

Branden Grace
The South African grinder, Dunhill Links champion in 2012, is comfortable in a breeze and should contend if he applies himself properly.

Laurie Canter
The Bath man failed to hold his nerve when a winning chance presented itself in the BMW PGA, but a hearty cheque for second softened the blow. The Dunhill is another breakthrough opportunity.

Dunhill courses guide

Courses The Old Course at St Andrews, and Kingsbarns, Fife, Scotland, and Carnoustie, Angus, Scotland
Prize money $5m ($833,500 to the winner)
Lengths The Old Course at St Andrews 7,318 yards; Carnoustie 7,394 yards; Kingsbarns 7,227 yards
Par All 72
Field 168
Course records - 72 holes of Dunhill Links Championship 264 Tyrrell Hatton (2017) 18 holes – St Andrews 61 Ross Fisher (2017); Carnoustie 64 Colin Montgomerie (1995 Scottish Open), Peter O'Malley (2007), Paul Lawrie (2007), Richard Green (2007 Open), Steve Stricker (2007 Open), Shane Lowry (2013), Alex Noren (2016), Tapio Pulkkanen (2018); Kingsbarns 60 Branden Grace (2012), Peter Uihlein (2013)

Course winners taking part (St Andrews) Padraig Harrington (twice), Stephen Gallacher, Martin Kaymer, Michael Hoey, Branden Grace, David Howell, Oliver Wilson, Tyrrell Hatton (twice), Lucas Bjerregaard, Victor Perez

When to bet By 9am on Thursday

When to watch Sky Sports Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Courses type Links

Courses overview This Pro-Am features two rounds at St Andrews and one each at Carnoustie and Kingsbarns. The competitors will play a round at each of the three links before a cut is made and the leaders will then battle it out on Sunday at St Andrews. The host course, with its generous fairways and a few par fours which can be reached off the tee, is easy if the breeze is light. But, as Rory McIlroy found to his cost in the 2010 Open, St Andrews can be much tougher in strong winds. The par-four 17th Road Hole is the toughest assignment on the track. Carnoustie is by far the most difficult course – the long, demanding monster brought many players to their knees in the 1999 and 2007 Opens. Carnoustie's closing four holes (three long par-fours and a 247-yard par-three) have destroyed many scorecards. Kingsbarns is the shortest venue and the only one with four par-fives, so big-hitters have an opportunity to make hay there. All three tracks are set up much easier than usual to give the amateurs a chance, so scoring is considerably lower in the Links Championship than the Open. Zach Johnson won the latest Open at St Andrews in 2015. Padraig Harrington won the Open at Carnoustie in 2007. Francesco Molinari won the Open at Carnoustie in 2018.

Story of last year Victor Perez edged Matthew Southgate by a shot to land a maiden European Tour title

Weather forecast Chilly mornings, with slightly warmer afternoons, temperatures peaking at 14C. Moderate breezes Thursday and Friday replaced by stiffer breezes on Saturday and Sunday. A constant threat of drizzle throughout.

Type of player suited to the challenge Those with banks of links experience from the British and Irish amateur scene, the Open and this event (which was first staged in 2001) will be best prepared, especially with a forecast for cold and windy weather. Links masters possess a range of shots to handle the quirky terrain. A sound temperament is required to deal with the amateur element of this event, with rounds taking an age to complete. A Kingsbarns tee-time for Saturday - the breeziest of the first three days - could be advantageous. St Andrews plays much tougher in the wind and Carnoustie is a brute on a breezy day.

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