Steve Palmer's Dubai Desert Classic predictions & golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Dubai Desert Classic at the Emirates Club on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 4am Thursday

Best bets

Erik van Rooyen
2pts each-way 50-1 bet365

Dean Burmester
2pts each-way 45-1 bet365

Rasmus Hojgaard
1pt each-way 75-1 bet365

Click here to add Steve Palmer's golf tips to your bet365 betslip

Not got a bet365 account? Bet £10 & get £50 in free bets

Open account offer. Minimum deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as bet credits and are available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Minimum odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude bet credits stake. Time limits/T&Cs apply. 18+ begambleaware.org

CLAIM OFFER HERE

Rory McIlroy scraped through to the weekend in the Abu Dhabi Championship last week, then closed with encouraging rounds of 67 and 69 for a share of 12th place, but there was not enough polish in his game to justify a plunge at short odds for the Dubai Desert Classic.

McIlroy had a tremendous opportunity to set a competitive clubhouse lead on Sunday, but hit some horror shots coming home, and admitted afterwards that he is still getting used to some new clubs in his bag. His Desert Classic record is excellent and the two-time champion is the most appealing of the market leaders, but preference is for each-way investments on better value runners.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Erik van Rooyen 50-1

A magnificent moustache has been getting Erik van Rooyen plenty of attention this year, but his golf game is also worthy of plaudits, and the South African seems well equipped to challenge for Dubai Desert Classic glory this week.

Van Rooyen became a PGA Tour champion in the Barracuda Championship in August, cementing his status on both sides of the Atlantic, then he followed up with a bold run to the Tour Championship. Seventh place in the opening FedEx Cup playoff event was followed by fifth spot in the second, so Van Rooyen's bank balance is bulging.

This year, the Joburg man has already played in three tournaments - finishing 25th on his Kapalua debut, then 20th in the Sony Open, where he closed with a 64, then 12th in Abu Dhabi last week. While other players are still rusty or getting used to new equipment, Van Rooyen has got 12 competitive rounds under his belt in good company, clearly getting sharper every week.

Emirates Club sets up well for this powerhouse, who can usually be relied upon to roll his rock well, and he has impressed in the desert before. Third place in the 2017 Challenge Tour Grand Final in Oman was followed by second spot in the 2019 Qatar Masters.

Van Rooyen has failed to contend in his two previous starts in the Desert Classic, but he has never arrived at the track in better nick and can upset the market leaders.

Next best bet

Dean Burmester 45-1

Another power-packed South African can join Van Rooyen on the leaderboard. Dean Burmester hits his ball a mile, but he also has the ability to produce amazing weeks on the greens. When Burmester's putter gets hot, he drains everything, and the Emirates is a layout where he should set up countless birdie chances.

Burmester finished third in the 2020 Desert Classic - and he also has a great record in the DP World Tour Championship. He has three top-six efforts to his name in the DPWTC - the Tour's perenially high-class finale.

The two-time European Tour champion finished last year strongly, winning a Sunshine Tour event in November, then roaring up the SA Open leaderboard over the weekend for fourth spot in December. Last week, Burmester closed with a 69 for 25th place in Abu Dhabi.

Other selection

Rasmus Hojgaard 75-1

The Hojgaard brothers could play a leading role in this tournament and Rasmus is the preferred option of the twins. He has made the better start to 2022 - closing with a 69 for 20th place in Abu Dhabi - and he has Emirates course experience.

Rasmus finished ninth in last year's Desert Classic, then followed up with sixth place in the Saudi International, confirming his liking for Gulf golf. Three European Tour victories at the age of 20 is a huge achievement - and further silverware seems almost inevitable. Expect the Hojgaards to become prolific DP World Tour champions before moving on to bigger and better things.

Players to note

Adri Arnaus
The Spaniard is a Dubai resident who practises at the Emirates and finished third in the 2020 DDC - and Sunday's Abu Dhabi 65 was impressive. He was struggling with wrist problems in the close-season, though, so may not yet be at full throttle.

Thomas Pieters
Last week's impressive Abu Dhabi champion has the ability to deliver back-to-back desert victories, but his Abu Dhabi record is far superior to his Emirates one.

Thorbjorn Olesen
The Dane has a superb Middle East record and loves the Emirates. The former Ryder Cup star is able to concentrate on his career again, having been cleared of sexual assault charges in December.

Nicolai Hojgaard
A second-round 79 in the wind meant a missed cut after a strong Thursday in Abu Dhabi, but the young powerhouse has the ability to bounce back in style.

Emirates Club course guide

Course Emirates Golf Club, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Prize money $8m ($1,333,330 to the winner)
Length 7,424 yards
Par 72; four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
Field 132 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Collin Morikawa (2), Viktor Hovland (5), Rory McIlroy (8), Tyrrell Hatton (22), Paul Casey (27)

Course records - 72 holes 264 Bryson DeChambeau (2019) 18 holes 61 Ernie Els (1994)

Course winners taking part Colin Montgomerie, Thomas Bjorn, Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy (twice), Miguel Angel Jimenez, Rafael Cabrera Bello, Stephen Gallacher (twice), Danny Willett, Sergio Garcia, Haotong Li, Lucas Herbert, Paul Casey

When to bet By 3.10am Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 4am Thursday

Time difference Dubai is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Abu Dhabi Championship 1 T Pieters (40-1), T2 R Cabrera Bello (110-1), S Sharma (225-1), T4 V Dubuisson (250-1), V Hovland (10-1), T6 T Hatton (25-1), J Morrison (350-1), I Poulter (55-1), J Winther (250-1)

Course type Desert

Course overview Emirates Golf Club has been used for the Desert Classic since 1989 apart from a two-year switch to Dubai Creek from 1999 to 2000. Traditionally the Emirates has been a low-scoring track where something approaching or passing 20 under par has been required for victory. The back nine is the scoring half, with three par-fives (the tenth, 13th and 18th) and two relatively short par-threes (11th and 15th). Water comes into play on ten holes, but fairly straightforward, flat greens mean the competitors can relax once they have got putter in hand.

Story of last year Paul Casey cruised to the title, winning by four shots from Brandon Stone.

Weather forecast Warm and sunny, with temperatures peaking at 28C. Calm mornings followed by breezy afternoons, peaking at 17 mph on Saturday.

Type of player suited to the challenge The Emirates has traditionally been a big-hitters' track and the champions usually make their score on the par-fives. Those who can hit it long and fairly straight, and are comfortable in desert conditions, should thrive.

Key attribute Power

Spotlight insight Six of the last nine Desert Classic winners finished in the top ten of the driving distance stats.

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport