Steve Palmer's Charles Schwab Challenge predictions, best bets & free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf red button from 1.20pm on Thursday

Best bets

Jordan Spieth
5pts each-way 12-1 general
Collin Morikawa
2.5pts each-way 18-1 Betfred, Hills

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Justin Thomas appears to be going to post at Colonial Country Club this week, parading the Wanamaker Trophy he won on Sunday, and punters have to decide what sort of shape the US PGA champion will be in.

Thomas was desperate to get back to winning ways after a 14-month victory drought - and he did so in a Major - so emotions were high on Sunday and celebrations probably lasted long into this week. It is doubtful whether the world number five can apply himself properly for 72 holes at Colonial so soon after the dramatic events of Southern Hills.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Jordan Spieth 12-1

The local hero can take out his US PGA frustrations on Colonial Country Club this week. Jordan Spieth knows every blade of grass at Colonial - a track where experience typically counts for plenty. A maiden has not won there for 20 years and the champion usually has bundles of Colonial competition under his belt.

Nobody in the field has superior Colonial credentials to Spieth, who finished seventh on his debut in 2013 when he was still a teenager. In subsequent visits he was 14th, second and first - winning by three shots in 2016 - then his last five Colonial starts have yielded results of 2-32-8-10-2. This place is dreamland for Spieth.

The one department of Spieth's game which has been holding him back lately is his putting, but he usually rolls them in from all parts at Colonial. He loves these greens and hardly ever fails upon them. It is reasonable to expect a better flat-stick performance this week.

The US PGA almost appeared too good a chance for Spieth to complete his career Grand Slam of Majors - there was a pressure that came with seemingly peaking for his most important event of the year - and the 28-year-old seemed understandably rattled from the off. The US PGA will always provide the most tension in Spieth's shoulders until he gets his hands on the Wanamaker.

Spieth's ball-striking has been fantastic in recent weeks. He won the Heritage with an ice-cold putter, then finished runner-up in the Byron Nelson despite holing nothing in the final round. A home-state gig and the chance to forge further up the world rankings should bring out the best in the Texan star this week.

A place in the world's top 100 was coming under threat for Spieth at the start of last year, but he is up to ninth in the rankings and must be getting excited about the opportunity to further improve.

Next best bet

Collin Morikawa 18-1

The main danger to Spieth may turn out to be Collin Morikawa, who should revel in this test of accuracy over power. Morikawa is so well suited to Colonial that he almost bucked the trend in 2020 by threatening victory on his debut.

Morikawa lost a playoff to Daniel Berger two years ago in the strongest Colonial field ever assembled. It was the first PGA Tour event after the long coronavirus suspension - and had a Major-like quality to the line-up as a result - and Morikawa came so close to the trophy. He was 14th on his second Colonial start last year.

In the US PGA, Morikawa suffered on the wrong side of a significant draw bias over the first two days, being dragged down in a bad-tempered threeball alongside Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm. There is no reason for Morikawa fans to panic about what happened at Southern Hills and he can be expected to get back among the birdies this week. He was runner-up in the Genesis Invitational in February and fifth in the Masters last month.

Players to note

Webb Simpson
A Saturday 65 at Southern Hills hinted at a return to form for a player who had been struggling for fitness and form. He put a new set of irons in the bag last week and finished 20th.

Scottie Scheffler
Some uncharacteristic temper tantrums were on display as the world number one missed the cut in tough conditions at Southern Hills. He may need more time to clear his head.

Abraham Ancer
The Texas-born and based Mexican popped his name on the Southern Hills leaderboard on Sunday, seemingly finding form in time to go well on a Colonial course which suits.

Max Homa
The four-time PGA Tour champion was 13th in the US PGA on Sunday and must be respected for the Charles Schwab.

Kevin Kisner
Colonial is one of the tracks on the PGA Tour circuit on which Kisner feels he can be a leading contender - and he proved it by winning there in 2017.

Russell Knox
A windy week where accuracy is the most important attribute a player can have - the perfect conditions for the straight-hitting Scot to thrive at a juicy price.

Colonial Country Club course guide

Course Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Texas
Prize money $8.4m ($1.35m to the winner)
Length 7,209 yards
Par 70 - two par-fives; 12 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 120 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Collin Morikawa (4), Justin Thomas (5), Viktor Hovland (7), Jordan Spieth (9)

Course records- 72 holes 259 Zach Johnson (2010) 18 holes 61 Keith Clearwater (1993), Lee Janzen (1993), Greg Kraft (1999), Justin Leonard (2003), Kenny Perry (2003), Chad Campbell (2004), Kevin Na (2018)

Course winners taking part Rory Sabbatini, Zach Johnson (twice), Chris Kirk, Jordan Spieth, Kevin Kisner, Justin Rose, Kevin Na, Daniel Berger, Jason Kokrak

When to bet By 1.20pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf red button from 1.20pm on Thursday

Time difference Texas is six hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - US PGA Championship 1 J Thomas (16-1), 2 W Zalatoris (35-1), T3 C Young (80-1), M Pereira (175-1), T5 T Fleetwood (80-1), C Kirk (225-1), M Fitzpatrick (40-1), 8 R McIlroy (16-1), T9 B Steele (300-1), T Hoge (160-1), A Ancer (100-1), S Power (110-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The PGA Tour has held an event at Colonial since 1946 and the ancient track inevitably offers up plenty of birdie opportunities to the modern professional. In-play punters should be aware that the first two holes on the course are the easiest, immediately followed by the three most difficult. The third, fourth and fifth are known as the 'Horrible Horseshoe'. The layout has been lengthened through the years but remains more of a test of accuracy over power. The fairways are Bermuda grass, but the greens are smooth Bentgrass

Story of last year A Sunday 70 from Jason Kokrak was enough to get the job done, with Jordan Spieth struggling to a 73 to lose by two shots.

Weather forecast Sunny, hot and breezy, getting progressively warmer and windier every day, peaking at 36C and 22 mph on Sunday afternoon

Type of player suited to the challenge An accurate sort with a behaving putter can destroy Colonial – it is a course that can be overwhelmed with straight-hitting rather than power-play. Newcomers are obviously at a significant disadvantage at such a long-established venue

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight None of the last 20 Colonial events have been won by a PGA Tour maiden

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