Steve Palmer's American Express final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 8pm Sunday

Best bets

Rickie Fowler to win The American Express
2pts 13-2 Sky Bet

Abraham Ancer to win threeball
2pts Evens Coral, Ladbrokes

Story so far

Andrew Landry and Scottie Scheffler put some distance between themselves and the rest of the field in round three of The American Express in California. The pair are tied at 21 under par with 18 holes to play.

Landry, whose only PGA Tour title came in the 2018 Texas Open, fired a Saturday 65 at the Nicklaus Tournament Course, while Scheffler carded a 66 at the Stadium Course, a great effort on the toughest of the three tracks used for this competition.

There is a four-shot gap to Rickie Fowler, who is alone in third place, so Landry, 200-1 ante-post, and Scheffler, available at 33-1, have taken control of proceedings. The cut-makers will gather at the Stadium Course for the final round.

Scheffler, the 2019 Korn Ferry Tour Player of the Year, is the 11-10 favourite going into the denouement. He won twice in the lower grade last season and the 23-year-old has quickly started looking like a PGA Tour champion in waiting. Landry is 9-4, while pre-tournament market leader Fowler can be backed at 13-2.

Leaderboard
-21 Scottie Scheffler, Andrew Landry
-17 Rickie Fowler
-16 Ryan Moore, Chase Seiffert
-15 Andrew Putnam, Abraham Ancer, Sebastian Cappelen
-14 Tim Wilkinson, Sepp Straka, Tom Hoge, Alex Noren, Sungjae Im, Brendon Todd, Wes Roach, Paul Casey, Tony Finau, Hank Lebioda, Max Homa

Best prices
11-10 S Scheffler, 9-4 A Landry, 13-2 R Fowler, 33 R Moore, 60 C Seiffert, 66 A Ancer, 80 A Putnam, 125 S Im, P Casey, T Finau, 200 bar

Final-round preview

Scottie Scheffler has always looked full of potential and PGA Tour form figures of 16-74-28-3-18-5 show how comfortable his graduation to the main circuit has been. PGA Tour silverware should arrive at some stage, but will it be this week in La Quinta?

Scheffler enjoyed a couple of lucky breaks in round three – one hugely fortunate hooked drive clattered off rocks in a lake and rebounded into the centre of the fairway – so there is no urge to get heavily involved with the 11-10 quotes. There is enough danger at the Stadium Course for Scheffler's attacking instincts to get him into trouble.

The respect bookmakers have for Scheffler is obvious – 11-10 for a maiden tied with a 9-4 chance who has already got a PGA Tour title to his name – and the new favourite also has a considerable length advantage over Andrew Landry. That power edge counts for little, though, at the Stadium Course, where accuracy and a sharp short-game are more important attributes.

Pre-tournament Racing Post Sport selections, Abraham Ancer and Sungjae Im, are close enough to the lead to threaten success with a super-low final round, while Sepp Straka and Brendon Todd could also make a late charge, but the best value option at this stage is arguably Rickie Fowler, who will relish his position on the leaderboard.

Fowler has not won as much silverware as his talent should have allowed – and he has narrowly failed in many elite events – but this is a low-grade gathering for which he can approach the final round with enormous confidence. Scheffler is a maiden and Landry is not blessed with great ability, so hunting them both down from four shots behind should be well within the compass of the 2015 Players champion.

Fowler had not played a competitive round at the Stadium Course prior to Saturday, so should come on for that run, and a bogey-free three-under-par closing nine set up his winning chance. In the state of his birth, expect a relaxed Fowler to make a strong run at the leading duo, and possibly pip them at the post. At a much bigger price, he is a far more attractive option than the front two.

Final-round threeball punters are pointed towards Ancer, the Presidents Cup star who can outclass Tim Wilkinson and Seb Cappelen in the 6.20pm (UK and Ireland time) contest. The final threeball of Scheffler, Landry and Fowler is scheduled off at 6.40pm. Another clear, calm day is forecast.

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