Steve Palmer's Alfred Dunhill Championship free golf betting tips, predictions

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 10am Thursday

Best bets

Brandon Stone
5pts each-way 12-1 general
Wilco Nienaber
3pts each-way 22-1 general
Jayden Trey Schaper
1pt each-way 70-1 Betfred

There are just four tournaments left in the European Tour season, with this week's Alfred Dunhill Championship followed by the inaugural Golf in Dubai Championship, the South African Open and the DP World Tour Championship.

The two events in South Africa give the locals a great chance of success - they are obviously more comfortable in the conditions - and six of the last eight Dunhills have been won by a South African. Three young Saffas can make merry at Leopard Creek this week.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Brandon Stone 12-1

Robert MacIntyre started this week as Alfred Dunhill Championship market leader, but the Scot seemed a false favourite and Brandon Stone has rightly taken over at the top of the betting.

MacIntyre, who was struggling with back and hip problems last month, impressed in the European Tour's fortnight in Paphos, winning his maiden title amid the quirky format of the Cyprus Showdown, but those exploits do not make him a more likely Dunhill champion than Stone.

Leopard Creek is paradise for the 27-year-old South African, who won the Dunhill by a remarkable seven-shot margin in 2016. Stone fired rounds of 67, 66, 66 and 67 in a dominant display, reaching 22 under par and leaving Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace, Dylan Frittelli, Erik van Rooyen, Matt Wallace and others well behind. He faces a much weaker field this week, shorn of that quintet.

Stone, who won his maiden European Tour title in the South African Open, closed with a 67 for 18th place on his Dunhill debut in 2015, ran riot the following year, then opened with rounds of 69, 70 and 69 when defending his title in the subsequent Dunhill. That put him in third place going into Sunday, three shots behind, and he looked set to retain his Creek crown when opening the final round with two birdies.

A triple-bogey at the ninth hole knocked the stuffing from Stone that year, though. Two double-bogeys followed on the back-nine, and despite five Sunday birdies, he signed for a 76 to finish 15th.

Last year, he carried a cold putter all week and never got into serious contention, but last week's ball-striking masterclass in the Joburg Open makes him appear a surefire dangerman this time.

Stone topped the tee-to-green statistics in Joburg last week, finishing fourth, suffering on the greens. After a month off, he made a slow start on Thursday, carding a 70, but he was brilliant over the final three rounds and can approach Leopard Creek bursting with confidence.

Four of his last five tournaments have resulted in top-20s and he is thrilled to have convinced his old caddie to return to action after two years of retirement. Stone's A-game is magnificent, highlighted by a closing 60 for a four-shot Scottish Open victory in 2018, and this likeable lad appears close to peaking for the Dunhill.

Next best bet

Wilco Nienaber 22-1

The closing two holes of the Joburg Open were hellish for Wilco Nienaber, who carded a pair of bogeys to finish runner-up to JB Hansen, but the 20-year-old South African took the setback in commendable fashion and can threaten a European Tour breakthrough this week.

Nienaber looked the likely Joburg champion until a tugged tee-shot at the difficult 17th hole on Sunday, then he was playing catch-up at the 72nd hole having led all week. He was pleased to have registered his first runner-up finish on the European Tour, though, and has established himself as one of the most promising youngsters in the sport.

Nienaber can boast ball speed of more than 200 miles per hour and he hit a drive 439 yards last week - all accomplished with balance and grace. Once he tidies up his wedge-play and chipping, the world is his oyster, and it is no wonder comparisons with Ernie Els are already being made.

A share of 24th place was a solid Dunhill debut a year ago and Nienaber, who finally recruited a proper caddie last week to assist with course management, can dazzle for the second week running.

Other selection

Jayden Trey Schaper 70-1

Complete a three-pronged attack with Jayden Trey Schaper, who will turn 20 in March with a glorious golfing future. He won the Junior Players Championship at Sawgrass as an amateur and impressed when handed opportunities in his homeland in pro events.

His European Tour debut yielded 42nd place in the Alfred Dunhill, then in January when still only 18, he finished sixth in the South African Open.

Schaper has played in nine events post-lockdown - eight Sunshine Tour outings before last week's co-sanctioned Joburg Open - and posted form figures of 15-6-12-29-7-5-MC-17-18. That is remarkable consistency for one so young and he can attack Leopard Creek with confidence this week.

Players to note

Wil Besseling
The Dutchman finished third on his Creek debut last year and has impressed post-lockdown, with third place in the Austrian Open, then again at Valderrama.

Garrick Higgo
The South African youngster has had a little wobble - rubbish in the Cyprus Showdown, then 61st in Joburg - but he is another local with bags of potential.

George Coetzee
The Portugal Masters champion missed the cut by 13 shots at Wentworth last time out and has had six weeks off. He must be respected, but is probably rusty.

Matthew Jordan
The 24-year-old Wirral man appears to be getting more settled on the European Tour and should become a champion at some stage.

Leopard Creek course guide

Course Leopard Creek Country Club, Malelane, South Africa
Prize money €1.5m (€250,000 to the winner)
Length 7,249 yards
Par 72
Field 156
Course records- 72 holes 264 Charl Schwartzel (2012) 18 holes 61 Thomas Aiken (2008)

Course winners taking part Darren Fichardt (2001 SA Tour Championship), Hennie Otto (2003 SA Tour Championship), Richard Sterne, Brandon Stone, Pablo Larrazabal

When to bet By 4.20am Thursday morning

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 10am Thursday

Time difference South Africa is two hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Joburg Open 1 JB Hansen (40-1), 2 W Nienaber (30-1), 3 S Norris (35-1), T4 A Cockerill (150-1), B Stone (20-1), S Surry (500-1)

Course overview This Gary Player designed layout opened in 1996 and hosted the Tour Championship on the South African circuit from 2001 to 2004. The more prestigious Alfred Dunhill Championship moved to Leopard Creek in 2005 and remained at the venue until the '2017' edition in December 2016. There was no Alfred Dunhill in 2017 due to the course undergoing extensive improvements. The par-three 12th hole was redesigned, many of the fairway bunkers were repositioned, and the Kikuyu grass fairways were replaced with indigenous cynodon, so there was more run on the ball. Scoring has been tougher since the changes, with 14 under par and eight under the last two winning totals. The course is located on the southern edge of South Africa's Kruger National Park, with wild animals (lions, hippos, crocodiles, giraffes and antelope) usually in close attendance. Two long par-fours approaching the turn (the eighth and ninth) provide the greatest challenge. Two of the four par-fives (the 13th and 18th) are well in range in two shots, although a lake surrounds the 18th green and many stars (notably Ernie Els with his disastrous triple-bogey eight in 2007) have seen their title hopes find a watery grave there. The other two par-fives (the second and 15th) are 573 and 580 yards respectively. The 311-yard par-four sixth is tempting to big-hitters.

Story of last year Pablo Larrazabal edged to a one-shot victory over Joel Sjoholm, the Spaniard defeating the Swede despite suffering with painful foot blisters throughout the final round.

Weather forecast Cloudy for the most part and temperatures in the mid-20s for the first two days, before a hotter weekend. Winds should be generally light, peaking on Saturday.

Type of player suited to the challenge Charl Schwartzel, Ernie Els, Alvaro Quiros, Pablo Martin, Garth Mulroy, Branden Grace and Brandon Stone have all won on this track employing a power-packed approach, so it has traditionally lent itself to big-hitting.

Key attribute Power

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