Racing Post's Memorial Tournament final-round preview, best bets and golf tips

Free golf tips, best bets and analysis for the final round of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village GC on the PGA Tour on Sunday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 4.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Jhonattan Vegas to win 6.05pm twoball
4pts 19-20 bet365

Troy Merritt to win 4.05pm twoball
2pts 8-5 bet365

Rory McIlroy to finish as Top European
1pt 2-1 Boyles

Story so far

Billy Horschel blew the Memorial field apart on Saturday as he carded a 7-under par 65 to secure an imposing five-shot lead heading into the final round at Muirfield Village, leaving him odds-on everywhere to take the honours.

Having missed the cut at last week’s Charles Schwab Challenge, Horschel and his team discussed how to improve matters and whatever was said has clearly worked, with the six-time PGA Tour winner now bogey-free in his last 44 holes.

Four times Horschel has led heading into the final round and he has a 50 per cent conversion rate from that position, although he will have to banish the recent memory of failing to convert at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

There the 35-year-old went into Sunday tied for the lead, only to register a 75 which saw him miss out by a single shot to world number one and Masters champion Scottie Scheffler.

Among those hoping to chase down Horschel, Cameron Smith and Aaron Wise are closest challengers, five shots back from the 13-under mark of the impressive leader.

Australian star Smith may have the better shout as the player to overhaul the Muirfield leader, having shot a magnificent final-round 66 to claim a one-shot victory at The Players Championship just under three months ago.

Leaderboard
-13 Billy Horschel
-8 Cameron Smith, Aaron Wise
-7 Jhonattan Vegas, Francesco Molinari, Daniel Berger
-6 Denny McCarthy, Davis Riley, Luke List, Patrick Cantlay, Joaquin Niemann
-5 Matthew NeSmith, Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala

Best outright prices
4-7 B Horschel, 13-2 C Smith, 12-1 A Wise, 25-1 D Berger, P Cantlay, 40-1 F Molinari, J Niemann, J Vegas, 50-1 D Riley, 80-1 L List, D McCarthy, R McIlroy, C Young.

Final-round preview

Horschel has put himself in a position where the Memorial title is his to lose and that is well reflected by a best price of 4-7 to complete the job on Sunday.

However, there are a number of high-quality players among the nearest challengers, with Rory McIlroy one of those to keep an eye on, even if at nine shots back a tournament win is seemingly out of reach.

More in his sights is Francesco Molinari, with the Italian three shots better off than the four-time Major winner in the race to be Top European.

McIlroy has developed an annoying habit of throwing in one poor round which derail his chances and he will hope that the 73 on Saturday was that blip at Muirfield Village.

Recent form suggests that might well be the case, with the Northern Irishman having registered no worse than 68 in any of his last four closing rounds, a run of form which includes a stunning 64 at the Masters.

Italian former Open champion Molinari goes out with Jhonattan Vegas in the final round and the talented Venezuelan is worth keeping on side across the final 18 holes.

Vegas has three top-20 finishes in his last five starts and his last final round saw him shoot a fine 66 at the AT&T Byron Nelson - a near repeat of that score would surely be enough for him to take his twoball against Molinari.

Further down the field lies an intriguing twoball featuring another former Claret Jug winner, Shane Lowry, and Troy Merritt.

Lowry opened strongly in Dublin, Ohio with a 3-under par 69, but has not managed to break par since, recording 72s in both the second and third rounds.

In contrast, Merritt is heading in the opposite direction, improving each day in registering rounds of 73, 72 and 69.

His score on Saturday could have been even better had he not dropped shots at 12 and 13, with the latter one which Merritt will need to improve on to edge out Lowry, having recorded bogeys there in all three rounds.

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