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Steve Palmer's free The American Express tips and predictions

Golf tips, best bets and predictions for The American Express on the PGA Tour

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When to bet on The American Express

By 4.30pm on Thursday

Where can I watch The American Express

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 4.30pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's American Express predictions

Nick Dunlap
3pts each-way 45-1 Betfair, Hills, Paddy Power

Davis Thompson
3pts each-way 40-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Carson Young
1pt each-way 175-1 Paddy Power

Kevin Yu
1pt each-way 100-1 bet365

Braden Thornberry
0.5pt each-way 500-1 bet365


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Steve Palmer's American Express preview

Scottie Scheffler withdrew from The American Express last week, giving himself more time to recover from a hand injury sustained on Christmas Day, and Xander Schauffele did likewise on Monday night for medical reasons.

Sungjae Im and Patrick Cantlay are tempting market principals – both have shown they can thrive in The American Express – but preference is for going deeper in the betting for juicier prices for what appears a wide-open event.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Nick Dunlap 45-1

Both of Nick Dunlap's PGA Tour victories have come in California and the gifted youngster can complete a hat-trick of Golden State triumphs on Sunday.

Dunlap announced himself on the world stage in last year's American Express, becoming the first amateur since Phil Mickelson in 1991 to win on the PGA Tour. A sensational third-round 60 at La Quinta Country Club sent Dunlap three shots clear with a round to go, then he battled over the line at the Stadium Course.

A few lean months followed as Dunlap adjusted to life as a touring professional, then a second title came in the Barracuda Championship in July. He went on to make leg two of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

Loaded with Christmas rust, Dunlap opened 2025 with a 76 in The Sentry, but was ten under par for his final three days at Kapalua, before carding rounds of 68, 67, 66, 66 for tenth place at Waialae last week. The Sentry and the Sony were both course debuts, but he has moved to a more familiar assignment this week.

Dunlap putted superbly at Waialae and should give a stout AmEx title defence if the 21-year-old carries that purring flat stick to California. He carded a 62 at La Quinta in the Monday pro-am of last year's AmEx, so will be especially looking forward to reacquainting himself with that track.

Next best bet

Davis Thompson 40-1

Victory on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022 kickstarted the professional career of Davis Thompson and he nearly followed up with American Express glory the following January, losing a Stadium Course duel with Jon Rahm by a shot.

Thompson, like Dunlap a former world number one amateur, is a 25-year-old with immense potential. The six-foot, four-inch beast followed up his AmEx debut runner-up effort with four rounds in the 60s for 21st place last year. This time he tees up as a PGA Tour champion for the first time, having romped to a four-shot John Deere Classic success in July.

Thompson has impressed since his JDC breakthrough, not least when fifth in the Shriners Children's Open in October despite being on the wrong side of a huge draw bias. Like Dunlap, Thompson was rusty in round one of his Sentry debut, opening with a 78, but he was 20 under par for his final three rounds.

A missed cut on one under par on an unsuitable layout in the Sony is nothing to worry about. Expect Thompson to be sharper for an AmEx assignment he loves in his third start of the year.

Other selections

Carson Young 175-1
Kevin Yu 100-1
Braden Thornberry 500-1

Carson Young is a neat and tidy operator who should be extremely effective this week. The 30-year-old does not hit his ball far, but he is precise, and the three courses he faces in the AmEx are not long. He won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022 and last year started threatening in the higher grade.

A share of 17th place in the AmEx 12 months ago, featuring closing rounds of 64, 68, 65, was followed by eighth place in the Mexico Open, fifth in the JDC and second in the World Wide Technology Championship in November. There was no disgrace in a pair of 69s to miss the cut by a shot in the Sony in his first start of 2025.

Complete the staking plan with Kevin Yu and Braden Thornberry. Yu made his breakthrough in the Sanderson Farms Championship in October, carding rounds of 66, 66, 66, 67, before winning a playoff. He impressed on the KFT in 2021 and 2022, before becoming a PGA Tour threat.

Yu came into last year's AmEx ranked 264th in the world, but closed with a 63 for third place. Back this week as a Tour champion, Yu seems dangerous. He was 13 under par for the final three rounds of his Sentry debut, blowing away the Christmas cobwebs.

Thornberry was world number one amateur in 2018. He starred in the 2017 Walker Cup in California, with Scheffler, Collin Morikawa and Will Zalatoris as teammates. At the age of 27, Thornberry may be ready to follow in the footsteps of that illustrious trio.

Getting off the KFT proved tough, but victory in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in October, where he closed with a 66 to win by one, finally delivered a PGA Tour card. Thornberry finished fourth in the 2017 St Jude Classic when still an amateur, proving he can compete at this level. A narrow missed cut in the Sony can be followed by a title tilt in California.


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Course guide for The American Express

  • Courses Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West, Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, La Quinta Country Club, La Quinta, California
  • Prize money $8.8m ($1.584m to the winner)
  • Lengths Stadium 7,210 yards, Nicklaus 7,147 yards, La Quinta 7,060 yards
  • Par All 72
  • Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round four
  • Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Xander Schauffele (2Wyndham Clark (7), Patrick Cantlay (12), Billy Horschel (16), Sungjae Im (19)
  • Course records - 18 holes TPC Stadium Course 61 Patrick Cantlay (2021), Justin Thomas (2024); Nicklaus Tournament Course 59 Harrison Frazar (2008 Q School); La Quinta 59 Adam Hadwin (2017)
  • Course winners taking part (in PGA Tour events featuring TPC Stadium Course at PGA West) Jason Dufner, Si Woo Kim, Nick Dunlap
  • When to bet By 4.30pm on Thursday
  • When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 4.30pm on Thursday
  • Time difference California is eight hours behind the UK and Ireland
  • Last week – Sony Open 1 N Taylor (110-1), 2 N Echavarria (90-1), T3 JJ Spaun (125-1), S Jaeger (70-1), 5 E Cole (100-1), T6 J Suber (400-1), A Schenk (200-1), P Fishburn (125-1), K Bradley (30-1)
  • Course type Desert
  • Course overview Various layouts have been used for this multi-course pro-am through the years, which was previously the Bob Hope Classic, Humana Challenge, CareerBuilder Challenge and Desert Classic. The Stadium Course returned after a 29-year absence to act as host in 2016, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course made its debut, joining La Quinta CC for a three-course event. The same rota has been used every year since (apart from 2021 – for which La Quinta took a year off) with one round played at each of the tracks over the first three days, and the cut-makers gathering at the Stadium Course on Sunday. The Stadium Course, designed by Pete Dye, is full of deep bunkers and water, and has similarities to the TPC Sawgrass. It usually plays harder than the Nicklaus Tournament Course, with La Quinta the easiest of the trio. The Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course were both used for the Tour Qualifying School Finals in 2002, 2006 and 2008
  • The story of last year Nick Dunlap edged Christiaan Bezuidenhout by a shot to become the first amateur to win on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson in 1991
  • Weather forecast Sunny and calm, with temperatures peaking at 22C
  • Type of player suited to the challenge A hot putter seems almost essential in this event, with the courses set up to with hardly any rough to allow the amateurs to get round, encouraging low scoring
  • Key attribute Touch/putting

Steve Palmer's American Express key stat

Only two of the last 17 winners of this event were making their first start of the year


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