Steve Palmer's Phoenix Open predictions and free golf betting tips

When to bet

By 2.15pm on Thursday

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 3pm on Thursday

Best bets

Jon Rahm
5pts each-way 8-1 Betfair

Adam Hadwin
1pt each-way 125-1 Betfair

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The invention of designated PGA Tour events in which the elite are compelled to take part means that punters will have Major-like quality line-ups to consider on a more regular basis – and the Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale boasts a star-studded cast who will battle for $20m in prize money.

Cameron Smith, a LIV Golf rebel, and Will Zalatoris, playing a light schedule as he returns from back problems, are the only members of the world's top ten who are missing the Phoenix Open.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Jon Rahm 8-1

Burly Spaniard Jon Rahm has started this year like a raging bull – seemingly on a mission to dominate the golfing world – and the massively in-form powerhouse appears set to put on a show for the Phoenix masses this week.

With household names everywhere, bookmakers are happily offering juicy prices allied to fantastic each-way terms, with as many as ten places up for grabs. Given the likelihood of Rahm playing well, an each-way investment in the Basque Country beast is hugely appealing.

Rahm's form figures from the Phoenix Open are 5-16-11-10-9-13-10 – nothing worse than 16th place in seven starts. That 16th spot came the week after his maiden PGA Tour title at Torrey Pines, so he was short of energy come the final round at Scottsdale, closing with a humdrum 70.

This could easily be the week when Rahm turns a rock-solid Phoenix Open record into a winning one. He lives in Scottsdale and knows the TPC like the back of his hand. Rahmbo was practising there with Tom Kim at the weekend while others in this field were battling long rounds with amateurs at Pebble Beach in miserable weather.

Rahm is something of a hero in these parts, having starred for Arizona State in his college days, and having the massive Scottsdale galleries on your side is a helpful bonus. More important is the fact that Rahm is in the form of his life.

The cocksure 28-year-old has won four of his last seven tournaments, with form figures from his last eight events of 2-1-4-1-8-1-1-7. For those four victories, he was a total of 99 under par, oozing assurance in all departments of his game. The Phoenix Open is traditionally won by players who spend the week pounding greens in regulation and Rahm tops the greens-in-regulation statistics on the PGA Tour this season.

The world rankings have been coming into the spotlight, with Rahm complaining that his achievements are being underrated, and that determination to regain top-dog status has been fuelling his early-season charge. Beating Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and the rest in Phoenix would make Rahm's argument compelling.

McIlroy is the same price as Rahm this week, but a less appealing option. Rahm has been in imperious form with his driver, while McIlroy admitted he was disappointed with his driving in Dubai and was saved by his short-game. Rahm has had three tournaments this year to get himself into a groove and McIlroy has had only one. And, while Rahm is playing in his eighth Phoenix Open, this is only McIlroy's second appearance. There are lots of risk-reward holes at this track and Rahm has the experience to make good decisions.

McIlroy also has some early distractions to deal with. While Rahm sensibly opted out of the Netflix documentary which airs next week, some of McIlroy's comments in it are already making headlines, so another challenging media conference awaits the outspoken Northern Irishman.

Next best bet

Adam Hadwin 125-1

Two-time Presidents Cup player Adam Hadwin could be the man to upset the big names and threaten this week's $3.6m first prize. The Canadian is not intimidated in elite company at the age of 35, finishing seventh in the US Open last year and ninth in the Players Championship, and he relishes desert venues such as Scottsdale.

Hadwin has three times finished in the top three in The American Express in the Californian desert and also has a superb record in the Shriners Open in the Nevada desert. At Scottsdale, in the Arizona desert, the Canadian has finished in the top 50 in his last seven starts, with a best finish of 12th place. He has not missed a cut since the first week of July, churning out greens in regulation.

TPC Scottsdale course guide

Course Stadium Course, TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Arizona
Prize money $20m ($3.6m to the winner)
Length 7,261 yards
Par 71 – three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 134 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (1), Scottie Scheffler (2), Jon Rahm (3), Patrick Cantlay (5), Xander Schauffele (6)
Course records - 72 holes 256 Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Phil Mickelson (2013) 18 holes 60 Grant Waite (1996), Mark Calcavecchia (2001), Phil Mickelson (2005 and 2013)

Course winners taking part JB Holmes (twice), Hideki Matsuyama (twice), Gary Woodland, Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler

When to bet By 2.15pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 3pm on Thursday

Time difference Arizona is seven hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week – Pebble Beach Pro-Am 1 J Rose (25-1), T2 B Todd (70-1), B Wu (100-1), T4 D McCarthy (35-1), K Mitchell (33-1), P Malnati (200-1), T7 T Pendrith (45-1), K Yu (125-1), R Moore (300-1), J Bramlett (90-1)

Course type Desert

Course overview The course has been used for this event since 1987. A score in the high-teens under par is usually needed for victory. The galleries are a test for the competitors, with more than 200,000 fans normally crammed into the course for the Friday and Saturday

Story of last year Scottie Scheffler defeated Patrick Cantlay in a playoff, making his PGA Tour breakthrough, having enjoyed a 62-67 weekend

Weather forecast Sunny and calm for the most part, with the breeze picking up a little on the weekend afternoons

Type of player suited to the challenge Scottsdale is traditionally conquered by players who churn out greens in regulation for four days

Key attribute Power

Spotlight insight

Six of the last seven Phoenix Open champions were inside the top 20 of the world rankings at the time of their victory.

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Steve PalmerRacing Post Sport

Published on 7 February 2023inPGA Tour

Last updated 11:51, 7 February 2023

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