Steve Palmer's Pebble Beach Pro-Am predictions and free golf betting tips

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 4.30pm on Thursday

Best bets

Matt Fitzpatrick
4pts each-way 10-1 Betfair, Hills, Power
Tom Hoge
2pts each-way 20-1 bet365
Maverick McNealy
2pts each-way 18-1 Hills
Justin Suh
1pt each-way 80-1 Betfair, Power

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The last time Jordan Spieth competed, he led after round one and missed the cut, but the Texan is a former Pebble Beach Pro-Am champion who will be a popular choice this week. It has been an untidy start to the year from Spieth and his putting remains a concern.

Viktor Hovland, 38th in his only previous Pebble Beach Pro-Am spin, faces small greens at Pebble, which is far from ideal for a player with a chipping weakness. The Hero World Challenge champion thrives by the coast, but can be left from the staking plan this week.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Matt Fitzpatrick 10-1

Favouritism should surely be going to Matt Fitzpatrick this week. He is the highest-ranked player in the field and ideally suited to the assignment. The Pebble Beach Pro-Am has traditionally been won by players who have been strong on approach and putted well – and the US Open champion usually delivers on both fronts.

Typically tidy from tee to green, and in possession of a razor-sharp short-game, Fitzpatrick seems the most likely winner of a weak PGA Tour gathering. He has served his apprenticeship in an event where newcomers have a poor record, slowly but surely getting used to the three courses and the amateur element of this pro-am.

Fitzpatrick carded four rounds in the 60s for sixth place in last year's Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which was his first start of 2022. This time, he has the added benefit of a pre-Pebble run, having finished seventh on his Sentry Tournament of Champions debut in Hawaii. Sharper for his Pebble return, and arriving as a Major champion for the first time, a bold title tilt can be expected.

Fitzpatrick was 12th in the 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach. If he can stay focused throughout, the pride of Sheffield should be in the thick of things come Sunday evening.

Next best bet

Tom Hoge 20-1

Magnificent iron-play has propelled Tom Hoge up to 29th in the world rankings and the 33-year-old appears to be in his prime. He is putting better than ever and walking with the swagger of a PGA Tour champion, having made his breakthrough in last year's Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

There is no obvious reason why punters should expect anything other than a stout title defence. Hoge was 12th in this event the year before his victory and he has shown a liking for short courses by the sea, finishing third in the 2018 Sony Open and fourth in the 2021 RSM Classic. He has contended in other California events – he was fifth in the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open and runner-up in last year's American Express – and he made a superb start to 2023 by finishing third on his Sentry Tournament of Champions debut.

Other selections

Maverick McNealy 18-1
Justin Suh 80-1

Complete a four-pronged attack with two former world number one amateurs. Maverick McNealy enjoyed an incredible amateur career – he looked capable of becoming the Tiger Woods of his generation – but his loyal followers are still awaiting a PGA Tour breakthrough.

Another wonderful opportunity awaits for the 27-year-old Californian in his home state this week. McNealy has gone close in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am before – he was fifth in 2020 and runner-up in 2021. Daniel Berger had to play out of his skin to defeat McNealy two years ago.

McNealy, runner-up in his home state in the Fortinet Championship in 2021, seems to relish short, seaside tracks, highlighted by fourth place in the 2021 Heritage and seventh spot in the recent Sony Open.

Justin Suh appears to have settled nicely on the PGA Tour, banking a cheque in his last seven tournaments. The Californian was 20th in his home state in the Farmers Insurance Open last week, a rock-solid performance which bodes extremely well for the future.

Suh was always destined for greatness, but some injuries slowed his progress to the top. Last season, though, he was relentlessly consistent on the Korn Ferry Tour, winning the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in September. It will probably not be long before he makes a serious impact in the higher grade.

Pebble Beach Pro-Am courses guide

Course Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterey Peninsula Country Club, Spyglass Hill Golf Club, Pebble Beach, California
Prize money $9m ($1.6m to the winner)
Lengths Pebble Beach 6,972 yards; Spyglass Hill 7,041 yards; Monterey Peninsula 6,957 yards
Par Pebble and Spyglass both 72, Monterey 71
Field 156 The cut Top 60 and ties qualify for round four
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Matt Fitzpatrick (10), Viktor Hovland (11), Jordan Spieth (16), Seamus Power (28), Tom Hoge (29)
Course records - 72 holes 265 Brandt Snedeker (2015) 18 holes Pebble 62 Tom Kite (1983), David Duval (1997), Patrick Cantlay (2021), Matthias Schwab (2022) Monterey 60 Sung Kang (2016) Spyglass 62 Phil Mickelson (2005), Luke Donald (2006)

Course winners taking part D.A Points, Jordan Spieth, Ted Potter, Nick Taylor, Tom Hoge

When to bet By 4.30pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 4.30pm on Thursday

Time difference California is eight hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week – Farmers Insurance Open 1 M Homa (20-1), 2 K Bradley (66-1), 3 C Morikawa (16-1), T4 S Theegala (45-1), S Im (22-1), S Ryder (300-1), T7 J Day (20-1), J Rahm (4-1), T9 H Matsuyama (40-1), T Finau (14-1)

Course type Links/parkland

Course overview A pro-am played over three different courses, with 36 holes at Pebble Beach and 18 apiece at Monterey and Spyglass, with the cut after 54 holes. Monterey was not used in 2021. Pebble Beach hosted the 2010 and 2019 US Opens. Small greens are a feature of the coastal layout. Spyglass has always been the most difficult venue. The greens are Poa annua at all three venues.

Story of last year Tom Hoge landed a maiden Tour title, defeating Jordan Spieth by two shots

Weather forecast Clear, but temperatures peaking at just 16C, with calm mornings followed by gentle afternoon breezes

Type of player suited to the challenge Accurate approach-play and sharp putting has been the key to success over the last decade

Key attribute Accuracy