Steve Palmer's free John Deere Classic predictions & golf betting tips

When to bet on the John Deere Classic

By 1pm on Thursday

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Where can I watch the John Deere Classic

Live on Sky Sports Main Event from 5pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's John Deere Classic predictions

Sepp Straka
4pts each-way 16-1 Hills

Maverick McNealy
3pts each-way 25-1 general

Davis Thompson
3pts each-way 25-1 bet365

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Steve Palmer's John Deere Classic preview

Patrick Cantlay was originally scheduled to play in the John Deere Classic, but the world number eight has opted to skip the Illinois gathering, leaving Sungjae Im as the favourite. The South Korean, poor on approach this season and suspect on the greens, can be avoided at short odds.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Sepp Straka 16-1

In the wake of Cantlay's withdrawal defending champion Sepp Straka should arguably top the betting, as he has arrived at TPC Deere Run bursting with form and confidence.

Straka made a slow start to the year, adjusting to life as a new father, but a superb ball-striking performance in the Players Championship in March signalled a return to form. He finished 16th at Sawgrass, then 16th again in the Masters in April.

Fifth spot in the Heritage was followed by eighth at Quail Hollow, fifth at Colonial and fifth at Memorial, then last time out in the Travelers Championship he closed with a 61 for 23rd place in Signature Event company.

Straka, who has matured into a Major contender in the last couple of years, is typically underrated by the bookmaking community and deserves favouritism for the John Deere Classic. Last year he needed to birdie the final hole to card a Sunday 59. The resulting double-bogey meant a 62 and a cosy two-shot success.

Next best bet

Maverick McNealy 25-1

Former world number one amateur Maverick McNealy has made an impressive return from injury and the Californian ace can threaten a maiden PGA Tour title on Sunday.

Since recovering from a shoulder injury, McNealy has been rock-solid from the Farmers Insurance Open onwards, and has gone 13 tournaments without missing a cut. He was sixth in the Phoenix Open, 13th in the Mexico Open, ninth in the Players Championship, 23rd in the US PGA, 17th at Colonial and seventh in the Canadian Open.

PGA Tour success seemed inevitable for McNealy after his college heroics and at the age of 28 his time may finally have come. He has always been an elite putter, but his driving improvements have caught the eye this term, making him a more complete player.

McNealy has finished 18th and eighth in his last two John Deere Classic starts. Expect those progressive form figures to continue.

Other selection

Davis Thompson 25-1

Keep the faith with Davis Thompson, who tied second in the Rocket Mortgage Classic on Sunday. The former world number one amateur has served his apprenticeship on the PGA Tour, having won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022.

Thompson clearly looks ready to triumph on the main circuit. Only Jon Rahm was too good for him in The American Express at the start of last year, then only Cam Davis was too good for him last week. Thompson was also second in the Myrtle Beach Classic in May, so he is knocking loudly on the gate of the PGA Tour winner's enclosure.

The Georgia lad was 31st on his John Deere Classic debut last season. Expect a more serious title tilt this week from the 25-year-old rising star.

Course guide for the John Deere Classic

• Course TPC Deere Run, Silvis, Illinois
• Prize money $8m ($1.332m to the winner)
• Length 7,289 yards
• Par 71 - three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Sepp Straka (24), Jason Day (28), Sungjae Im (29), Jordan Spieth (32), Denny McCarthy (34)
• Course records - 72 holes 257 Michael Kim (2018) 18 holes 59 Paul Goydos (2010)
• Course winners taking part Sean O'Hair, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth (twice), Ryan Moore, Michael Kim, Dylan Frittelli, Lucas Glover, JT Poston, Sepp Straka
• When to bet By 1pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event from 5pm on Thursday
• Time difference Illinois is six hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Rocket Mortgage Classic 1 C Davis (70-1), T2 D Thompson (40-1), M W Lee (20-1), A Bhatia (20-1), A Rai (33-1), T6 R Hoey (275-1), E Cole (90-1), E Van Rooyen (55-1), Cameron Young (16-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview The John Deere Classic has been held at TPC Deere Run since 2000. The track, crafted by DA Weibring in 1999, is one of the easiest the Tour stars face all season. The first and second holes are extremely simple, so there is scope for a fast start, and this is a birdiefest where only the hottest of putters will contend
• Story of last year Sepp Straka needed a birdie at his final hole for a 59, but found water with his approach. The resulting double-bogey meant a two-shot victory
• Weather forecast A mixture of sunshine and cloud. Warm throughout, calm for round one, with moderate breezes from Friday onwards
• Type of player suited to the challenge Steve Stricker, awesome with wedge in hand and one of the best putters in the world, won this event three times in a row before Zach Johnson, a player of a similar ilk, ended that streak. The John Deere lends itself to low scoring, but three breezy days should check scoring a little this time
• Key attribute Touch

Steve Palmer's John Deere Classic key stat

Five of the last ten JDC winners were PGA Tour maidens

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For those looking for even more extensive golf coverage don't miss Palmer's extra pointers every Wednesday in the Racing Post newspaper. 

As well as his tips and insight you will also get expert spotlight comments for all players in our extensive PGA Tour and DP Tour price comparison grids which include course and recent form, plus Palmer's unique attribute icons to help identify the type of players likely to be suited to conditions each week.