Steve Palmer's free Tour Championship predictions & golf betting tips

When to bet on the Tour Championship

By 4.16pm on Thursday

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Where can I watch the Tour Championship

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 6pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Tour Championship predictions

Ludvig Aberg
3.5pts each-way 16-1 bet365

Sam Burns
2.5pts each-way 30-1 bet365

Wyndham Clark
2pts each-way 33-1 bet365

Patrick Cantlay
2pts each-way 25-1 bet365

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Steve Palmer's Tour Championship preview

Punters assessing the 30-runner Tour Championship field must decide whether to have their bets in the market which includes the FedEx Cup handicaps (Tour Championship/FedEx Cup winner) or in the separate Tour Championship '72-hole strokeplay winner' market which ignores the handicaps. Scottie Scheffler, first in the FedEx standings, starts this event at ten under par, with Xander Schauffele at eight under, Hideki Matsuyama at seven under, and so on, until you get to the backmarkers who tee off at level par.

Preference is for betting on the market the players care about – the 72-hole strokeplay event is an irrelevance to the actual competitors – and four men are nominated as potential stars of the week. Scheffler and Schauffele, first and second on the starting grid, dominate the betting, but both may struggle to live up to their billing.

Scheffler has never won a FedEx Cup and has become increasingly angered by past failures. This is the third consecutive year he will start from the front of the grid. He has made clear that he despises the playoffs format and is miffed that winning six times this season means he gets only a two-shot advantage for the all-important finale.

Tetchy and seemingly tired through the playoffs, suffering with the return of his putting demons, Scheffler looks vulnerable. Schauffele is also feeling the pinch of the hectic recent schedule – the Open, the Olympics and the playoffs. Schauffele must be crestfallen that an East Lake course on which he had such a great record has been dramatically redesigned over the last year.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Ludvig Aberg 16-1

Second place in the BMW Championship on Sunday underlined how dangerous Ludvig Aberg is when not disadvantaged by a lack of course experience. Hardly anyone in the field knew Castle Pines and it is the same this week at a revamped East Lake.

Aberg's six-iron approach to the par-five 14th on Sunday fell short into the water, turning what seemed set to be a straightforward birdie into a bogey. Picking the right club was so difficult at the altitude and that shot meant he fell a shot shy of Keegan Bradley.

Aberg's driving was magnificent at Castle Pines – and his short-game was exceptional – so expect an East Lake charge if he can tighten up his irons. His maiden PGA Tour title came in Georgia last year and he made a barnstorming Masters debut in the same state in April, finishing runner-up. From five shots behind Scheffler with 72 holes to play, the ice-cool Swede will be sensing his opportunity.

Next best bet

Sam Burns 30-1

Tied second with Aberg in the BMW was Sam Burns, who closed with a 65, building on ninth place in the US Open, 12th in the 3M Open and fifth in the St Jude Championship.

Burns is from the Deep South and loves competing in this region. He won in Georgia on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2018, he has won in Mississippi on the PGA Tour, as well as twice in Texas. From six shots behind at East Lake, expect him to contend.

Other selections

Wyndham Clark 33-1
Patrick Cantlay 25-1

Two other players starting the Tour Championship six shots behind can make an impact. Wyndham Clark enjoyed the hunter role on his East Lake debut last year – he was the third-best scorer – and last year's US Open champion will relish this mission again. This ultra-attacking player has found his A-game in recent weeks.

Patrick Cantlay will also have high hopes. The 2021 FedEx Cup champion, a proven playoffs performer, has been in rock-solid form and will not be frightened by the prospect of winning $25 million. Like Clark, Cantlay will appreciate the course changes, with the greens made bigger. These two can be deadly on the dancefloors and should fall in love with the revised East Lake.

Course guide for the Tour Championship

• Course East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Georgia
• Prize money $100m ($25m to the winner)
• Length 7,490 yards
• Par 71 – three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 30 (no cut)
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Xander Schauffele (2), Rory McIlroy (3), Ludvig Aberg (4), Wyndham Clark (5)
• Course records - 72 holes 257 Tiger Woods (2007) 18 holes 60 Zach Johnson (2007)
• Course winners taking part Adam Scott, Billy Horschel, Rory McIlroy (three times), Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland
• When to bet By 4.16pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 6pm on Thursday
• Time difference Georgia is five hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – BMW Championship 1 K Bradley (80-1), T2 S Burns (33-1), L Aberg (25-1), A Scott (55-1), T5 C Davis (110-1), T Fleetwood (25-1), S W Kim (80-1), X Schauffele (6-1)
• Format A handicap system has been in operation for the Tour Championship since 2019, with the FedEx Cup leader starting on ten under par, the second in the standings at eight under par, the third at seven under, fourth at six under, fifth at five under, sixth to tenth at four under, 11th to 15th at three under, 16th to 20th at two under, 21st to 25th at one under, and 26th to 30th at level par
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview East Lake is the curtain-closer to the PGA Tour season, with the most successful performers of the year ending their Stateside campaign in the Tour Championship. East Lake has hosted this event in 1998, 2000, 2002 and from 2004 onwards. The famous course was designed by Tom Bendelow and Donald Ross, but Rees Jones took charge of a redesign in 1994 and at the end of 2007 (he switched all the greens from bentgrass to Bermuda), and an even more extensive redesign has taken place since the last Tour Championship, with bunkers relocated and reshaped, trees removed, mounds added, and all 18 greens revised, with many much larger and more undulating than before. Andrew Green took charge of the year-long project. The par has changed from 70 to 71. A SubAir drainage system means firm, fast greens are almost certain. Oak Hill, which hosted last year's US PGA, was subject to a redesign by Green prior to that championship
• Story of last year Viktor Hovland romped to a 27-under-par total and a five-shot triumph. Hovland and Schauffele tied for the lowest 72-hole score, but Hovland started five shots ahead of Schauffele on the handicap start
• Weather forecast Sunny, calm and extremely hot, with temperatures peaking at 36C
• Type of player suited to the challenge Finding fairways has traditionally been extremely difficult at East Lake. The course has been dramatically redesigned, so previous course form counts for less, but strong ball-striking remains the key to success
• Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's Tour Championship key stat

The top seed (front of starting grid) has won just two of the five Tour Championships with the handicap system 

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For those looking for even more extensive golf coverage don't miss Palmer's extra pointers every Wednesday in the Racing Post newspaper.

As well as his tips and insight you will also get expert spotlight comments for all players in our extensive PGA Tour and DP Tour price comparison grids which include course and recent form, plus Palmer's unique attribute icons to help identify the type of players likely to be suited to conditions each week.