Steve Palmer's free predictions & golf betting tips for the Sony Open

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When to bet on the Sony Open

By 5pm on Thursday

Where can I watch the Sony Open

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Sony Open predictions

Maverick McNealy
4pts each-way 25-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Corey Conners
3.5pts each-way 16-1 bet365

Austin Eckroat
2pts each-way 40-1 Betfair

Daniel Berger
1.5pts each-way 60-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Nico Echavarria
1pt each-way 90-1 bet365

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Steve Palmer's Sony Open preview

Hideki Matsuyama is hunting a quickfire Sentry and Sony Open double, having fired a record-breaking 35-under-par total in winning at Kapalua on Sunday, and the Japanese ace is a warm favourite at Waialae Country Club.

The Hawaii double has been achieved by Ernie Els in 2003 and Justin Thomas in 2017 and Matsuyama won the Sony Open in 2022. The market leader must be respected, but preference is for bigger prices on other players. 

Steve Palmer's top tip

Maverick McNealy 25-1

Having been one of the best amateurs in history, Maverick McNealy entered the professional ranks with a huge reputation, and he landed an overdue PGA Tour title when winning the RSM Classic in November.

That breakthrough triumph followed sixth place in the World Wide Technology Championship and 17th in Bermuda, then he followed up his RSM heroics with eighth place on his Sentry debut last week. McNealy's iron-play has sharply improved and he appears ready to challenge for the highest honours in the sport at the age of 29.

Recruiting brother Scout as his caddie has proved an excellent move as the victory came soon after they joined forces and the relief on the faces of the McNealy family at the RSM spoke volumes. The floodgates may open for Maverick now the monkey is off his back and the Sony seems a great opportunity.

McNealy loves teeing up at coastal venues such as Waialae. His record in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is superb, including second place in 2021. The RSM triumph was by the coast, as was his fourth place in the 2021 Heritage.

He played a lot at Kapalua as a youngster on family trips, then his first PGA Tour start in Hawaii resulted in 27th place in the 2022 Sony Open. He was seventh in the 2023 Sony, then 57th last year after a poor run of form. He carded a second-round 64 at Kapalua last Friday, warming up nicely for Waialae.

Seventeen of the last 26 Sony Open winners played at Kapalua the previous week, including eight of the last 11. McNealy can bolster that statistic by winning a second PGA Tour title on Sunday. 

Next best bet

Corey Conners 16-1

McNealy finished eighth in The Sentry despite his typically exquisite short game failing to sparkle. Corey Conners finished fifth in The Sentry despite failing to hit his ball with as much authority as usual. Expect both players to produce a complete performance in Honolulu.

Conners topped the putting stats at Kapalua which was a huge fillip for the months ahead as the Canadian would be a world-beater if he could find a way to putt consistently well. With another set of Hawaiian greens to tackle this week, Conners should be licking his lips.

He turned 33 on Monday in fantastic nick. He ended last year with sixth place on his Nedbank Challenge debut, then was fourth in the Grant Thornton Invitational alongside Brooke Henderson, before four rounds in the 60s in The Sentry.

Conners was third in the 2019 Sony, despite arriving as a Tour maiden at 264th in the world rankings, then finished 12-11-12-57 in his four subsequent starts. His trademark accuracy should be shown to great effect in the forecast winds.

Other selections

Austin Eckroat 40-1
Daniel Berger 60-1
Nico Echavarria 80-1

Austin Eckroat won twice on the PGA Tour last season and is not getting enough respect in the betting. He made his breakthrough in the Cognizant Classic in March, then won the World Wide Technology Championship in November, following up with 17th place in the RSM Classic and 15th last week in The Sentry.

Eckroat has played well on similar courses to Waialae and he finished 12th on his Sony debut in 2023 when he was ranked 228th in the world. This is his first Sony start as a PGA Tour champion and his first with the advantage of a Sentry warm-up spin.

Daniel Berger has slowly but surely worked his way back to top form after injury issues forced him to take some time away from the sport. He is fully fit again and from October onwards has played some stellar golf. He finished his 2024 PGA Tour campaign with second place in the RSM, a result which cemented his playing rights.

Berger is a four-time PGA Tour champion and his last victory came at Pebble Beach, which is a similar assignment to this week's. He was 13th on his Sony debut in 2015, with subsequent Waialae results of 42-45-14-38-7. The Floridian was fifth on his last Kapalua start in 2022.

Complete the team with Nico Echavarria, who won his maiden PGA Tour title in the 2023 Puerto Rico Open and can revel in more island combat this week. He fended off Justin Thomas to win the Zozo Championship in October and can threaten a Tour hat-trick on Sunday.

Since his Zozo success Echavarria has finished sixth in Mexico, 29th in Bermuda, tied for second in the RSM and 32nd last week at Kapalua, where he enjoyed a 12-under-par weekend.

Echavarria finished 12th on his Sony debut in 2023 despite being 420th in the world rankings and he loves competing in a breeze.

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Course guide for the Sony Open

• Course Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, Hawaii
• Prize money $8.7m ($1.494m to the winner)
• Length 7,044 yards
• Par 70 – two par-five holes, 12 par-fours, four par-threes
• Field 144 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Hideki Matsuyama (5), Keegan Bradley (12), Sahith Theegala (13), Robert MacIntyre (14), Billy Horschel (15)
• Course records - 72 holes 253 Justin Thomas (2017) 18 holes 59 Justin Thomas (2017)
• Course winners taking part Zach Johnson, Ryan Palmer, Russell Henley, Patton Kizzire, Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim
• When to bet By 5pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Thursday
• Time difference Hawaii is ten hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – The Sentry 1 H Matsuyama (22-1), 2 C Morikawa (12-1), 3 S Im (18-1), 4 J Vegas (150-1), T5 L Aberg (16-1), C Conners (25-1), T Detry (100-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview Waialae, host since 1965, contrasts greatly with the wide-open Plantation Course where Hideki Matsuyama won The Sentry in Maui last week. The fairways are thin, the greens are small and accuracy is the key to success. The Hawaii turf and trade winds are similar to Kapalua, though, and Sentry runners have an excellent record of Sony success
• The story of last year Grayson Murray beat Byeong Hun An and Keegan Bradley in a playoff
• Weather forecast Pre-tournament rain is set to soften the track. Largely sunny and warm for the competition days, with wind speed increasing each day, peaking on Sunday afternoon
• Type of player suited to the challenge Pure, accurate ball-striking has typically been the key to success at Waialae, as demonstrated by wins for David Toms, Paul Goydos, KJ Choi, Zach Johnson, Mark Wilson, Johnson Wagner, Fabian Gomez and Matt Kuchar
• Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's Sony Open key stat

Seventeen of the last 26 Sony Open winners played at Kapalua the previous week

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For those looking for even more extensive golf coverage don't miss Palmer's extra pointers every Wednesday in the Racing Post newspaper.

As well as his tips and insight you will also get expert spotlight comments for all players in our extensive PGA Tour and DP Tour price comparison grids which include course and recent form, plus Palmer's unique attribute icons to help identify the type of players likely to be suited to conditions each week.

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