Steve Palmer's free Hero World Challenge predictions & golf betting tips

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When to bet on the Hero World Challenge

By 3.46pm on Thursday

Where can I watch the Hero World Challenge

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 6.30pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Hero World Challenge predictions

Scottie Scheffler
8pts 5-2 bet365 enhanced win only

Justin Thomas
3pts each-way 10-1 general

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Steve Palmer's Hero World Challenge preview

Tiger Woods has not recovered sufficiently from his latest injury setback to tee up in the Hero World Challenge, so the living legend will act as a full-time tournament host this week, presenting the trophy as usual to whoever emerges triumphant on Sunday.

Woods will be disappointed that he is not able to take his part in the line-up – and equally unhappy about the strength of the field. Plenty of big names have turned their nose up at the chance to compete in the Bahamas this week at the end of a busy year. Tiger has lost some of his pulling power.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Scottie Scheffler 5-2

This is arguably the worst World Challenge field in history and the trophy appears at the mercy of the best player on the planet. Hideki Matsuyama, Billy Horschel and Tony Finau have been the most recent withdrawals and the Hero line-up lacks star quality.

Xander Schauffele is absent, Rory McIlroy is skipping the event, Collin Morikawa has decided he has better things to do with his time, while Viktor Hovland remains on the sidelines with some injury issues. Hovland is the only player who has ever managed to outscore Scottie Scheffler in the World Challenge, so the Norwegian has left the stage clear for Scheffler to retain the title.

Scheffler has played in the last three editions of this event. Hovland beat him by a shot in 2021, then by two shots in 2022, before Scheffler cruised to a three-shot success last year. The Texas-based superstar can boast Albany form figures of 2-2-1 and is the only course winner in attendance this week.

It is easy for punters to forget how much Scheffler was struggling coming to this tournament 12 months ago. His putting woes were deeply entrenched – he had gone almost nine months without a victory because he was wasting his stellar approach-play with failure on the greens. A nightmare Tour Championship was followed by a tearful Ryder Cup – Scheffler was a bundle of frustration.

Rounds of 69, 66, 65, 68, though, ensured Hero glory. He had just started working with putting coach Phil Kenyon and they clearly found an immediate solution to his problems on the dancefloors.

The World Challenge was the start of Scheffler's revival on the greens. He has played 21 tournaments since recruiting Kenyon and has won nine of them, finishing outside the top ten in only three of them. 

This year he has won the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Players Championship, the Masters, the Heritage, the Memorial, the Travelers Championship, the Olympic gold medal and the Tour Championship. It has been a ludicrous year regularly winning massive titles and can end on a high on Sunday.

Scheffler has not competed since the Presidents Cup, but he is the ultimate professional, so will have prepared thoroughly for this. He has had the same amount of time off that he had prior to winning last year's Hero, but is in a much better place mentally.

There are eight debutants teeing up this week – 40 per cent of the field will be tackling Albany for the first time – and it is difficult to see any of them threatening the mighty Scheffler.

Next best bet

Justin Thomas 10-1

Four rounds, no cut, good weather, with zero chance of a draw bias as 20 runners tee off at similar times, means the cream can rise to the top. 

Justin Thomas is walking on air, having just become a father, and a happy, relaxed, loose JT can provide the main challenge to Scheffler.

Expect a free-flowing Thomas to build on an excellent Albany record. He has got more course experience than anyone else in this field, with form figures of 11-12-5-5-5-3, and is ready to contend on the evidence of his last outing in the Zozo Championship at the end of October.

Thomas tied second in the Zozo, where he was beaten by a single shot and carded only one bogey all week. His ball-striking was exceptional and he was luckless on the greens. 

Having been the seventh-best scorer in the Tour Championship, these are encouraging times for the former world No. 1, who has a superb record in small-field, no-cut events at tropical islands. He has twice won The Sentry in Hawaii. 

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Course guide for the Hero World Challenge

• Course Albany, New Providence, The Bahamas
• Prize money $5m ($1m to the winner)
• Length 7,449 yards
• Par 72 – five par-fives, eight par-fours, five par-threes
• Field 20 (no cut)
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Ludvig Aberg (5), Wyndham Clark (6), Patrick Cantlay (11), Sahith Theegala (12)
• Course records - 72 holes 263 Bubba Watson (2015) 18 holes 61 Rickie Fowler (2017)
• Course winners taking part Scottie Scheffler
• When to bet By 3.46pm on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 6.30pm on Thursday
• Time difference The Bahamas is five hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview The World Challenge's traditional home was Sherwood Country Club, California, where it was staged from 2000 to 2013, but it moved to Isleworth Country Club, Florida, in 2014, then to Albany in 2015. Albany is a luxury resort on the island of New Providence, which opened in December, 2010. Ernie Els designed the course and is a member there, along with Tiger Woods. The straightforward, open, relatively rough-free, links-style track encourages aggressive golf. There was no event in 2020 due to Covid. The field size increased from 18 to 20 in 2021
• Story of last year Scottie Scheffler cruised to a first Hero World Challenge title, having finished runner-up in the previous two editions
• Weather forecast Clear and pleasant, with light to moderate breezes
• Type of player suited to the challenge Bubba Watson overpowered Albany in 2015, going 13 under par for the five par-fives and 12 under par for the rest of the course. Big-hitters carrying hot putters can destroy this track
• Key attribute Power

Steve Palmer's Hero World Challenge key stat

Scottie Scheffler has won eight of his last 15 tournaments.

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For those looking for even more extensive golf coverage don't miss Palmer's extra pointers every Wednesday in the Racing Post newspaper.

As well as his tips and insight you will also get expert spotlight comments for all players in our extensive PGA Tour and DP Tour price comparison grids which include course and recent form, plus Palmer's unique attribute icons to help identify the type of players likely to be suited to conditions each week.