Steve Palmer's AT&T Byron Nelson predictions and free golf betting tips

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By 1pm on Thursday

Where to watch the AT&T Byron Nelson

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's AT&T Byron Nelson predictions

Kyoung-Hoon Lee
2.5pts each-way 22-1 general

Davis Riley
1.5pts each-way 45-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Taylor Montgomery
1.5pts each-way 40-1 general

Joseph Bramlett
1pt each-way 60-1 Hills

Pierceson Coody
0.5pt each-way 250-1 Hills

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Jordan Spieth fans are fretting after their hero withdrew from the AT&T Byron Nelson, citing a wrist injury, throwing a cloud over his attempts to complete a career Grand Slam of Majors next week. Spieth needs only the US PGA Championship title for the full set of Majors, but there will be no home-state warm-up spin for the Texan.

Spieth's withdrawal leaves Scottie Scheffler as an even more emphatic Byron Nelson favourite. Scheffler is easy to pass over at just 7-2. TPC Craig Ranch is an easy course where the best player may struggle to assert his superiority. If he is carrying a cold putter, as has often been the case this year, then the favourite could get quickly left behind.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Kyoung-Hoon Lee 22-1

There have been two previous AT&T Byron Nelsons at TPC Craig Ranch – and they have both been won by Kyoung-Hoon Lee. The South Korean adores this venue and could easily complete a hat-trick of triumphs on Sunday.

Lee is 51 under par for his 144 holes at Craig Ranch. A reduction in the par from 72 to 71 this year will put the brakes on him, but he is a better player going into this week's title defence than he was for his last, so there is every reason to believe the Seoul man can play a winning tune again.

Lee was world number 88 when teeing up in last year's Byron Nelson. He is 44th in the world for this event and took great confidence from making a positive Presidents Cup debut for the Internationals in September. He won two points from three matches, including a singles victory, proving himself on the world stage.

Last month Lee posted a personal-best for the Majors with 23rd spot in the Masters, then last week he warmed up for this hat-trick bid with eighth place in the Wells Fargo Championship. The 31-year-old has never carried more self-belief and he has got his game in order at the perfect time to remain King of McKinney.

Next best bet

Davis Riley 45-1

PGA Tour silverware was lifted by Davis Riley in the Zurich Classic last month. He was the star of a successful partnership with Nick Hardy in that pairs event and the time has come to claim a trophy on his own.

Two victories on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2020 showed the potential of Riley and he nearly got off the mark on the PGA Tour in the Valspar Championship last year, losing a playoff to Sam Burns. The floodgates will probably open for Riley soon – this sweet-swinger is a top-class iron-player – and TPC Craig Ranch provides a fantastic opportunity.

Riley got off to a slow start in his only previous start at this track, opening with a 72, but he followed up with back-to-back 64s and finished ninth. This is a layout he can attack.

Other selections

Taylor Montgomery 40-1
Joseph Bramlett 60-1
Pierceson Coody 250-1

The only player other than Lee to have tasted success at TPC Craig Ranch is Taylor Montgomery, who won the Korn Ferry Tour Qualifying School event there in 2019. It was a four-round affair and Montgomery reached 18 under par. As a strong driver who is arguably the best putter on the circuit, Montgomery has all the tools to be effective at Craig Ranch, and his early-season sparkle could easily return this week.

Joseph Bramlett is another PGA Tour maiden to consider. The Californian is a superb ball-striker who becomes a threat any time he has a half-decent week on the greens. He won the 2021 Korn Ferry Tour Championship by four shots, carding back-to-back 65s over the weekend, and this season he has been popping up regularly on PGA Tour leaderboards.

Bramlett, 12th in the Fortinet Championship, ninth in the Houston Open, 13th in the Farmers Insurance Open, seventh at Pebble Beach and tenth in the Mexico Open last month, was seventh in the 2021 Byron Nelson at Craig Ranch.

Pierceson Coody is a Texan relishing the chance to tee up in his home state. This former superstar amateur has already won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour and is an aggressive 23-year-old who should thrive at Craig Ranch. His twin brother Parker has also got a sponsors invite and the local boys can thrill the galleries.

TPC Craig Ranch course guide

Course TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas
Prize money $9.5m ($1.71m to the winner)
Length 7,414 yards
Par 71 – three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (2), Tyrrell Hatton (17), Tom Kim (19), Hideki Matsuyama (22), Tom Hoge (30)Scottie Scheffler (2), Tyrrell Hatton (17), Tom Kim (19), Hideki Matsuyama (22), Tom Hoge (30)
Course records - 72 holes 262 Kyoung-Hoon Lee (2022) 18 holes 60 Sebastian Munoz (2022)

Course winners taking part Kyoung-Hoon Lee (twice)

When to bet By 12.50pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Thursday

Time difference Texas is six hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week – Wells Fargo Championship 1 W Clark (70-1), 2 X Schauffele (16-1), T3 H English (175-1), T Hatton (40-1), T5 T Fleetwood (55-1), A Scott (110-1), 7 M Kim (400-1), T8 D McCarthy (125-1), K.H Lee (160-1), M Homa (28-1), C Conners (60-1), S Im (25-1), B Todd (250-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson for the first time in 2021. It staged the Nationwide Tour Championship in 2008 and the Web.com Tour Championship in 2012. It was also used for the second stage of the Korn Ferry Tour Q-School in 2019, won by Taylor Montgomery. The track has Zoysia fairways, relatively slow bentgrass greens, and is easy for Tour pros. The 12th has become a 493-yard par-four this year (previously five), reducing the par to 71. The 14th is a driveable par-four

Story of last year Kyoung-Hoon Lee successfully defended his title, edging Jordan Spieth by a shot

Weather forecast Warm and breezy for the first three days, calming down on Sunday, with a thunderstorm threat throughout the event

Type of player suited to the challenge The trees are a long way from the fairways, making for welcoming targets off the tee, and big-hitters can make merry

Key attribute Power