Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Sky Sports Golf, 2.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Hideki Matsuyama to win Arnold Palmer Invitational
2pts each-way 12-1 general

Scottie Scheffler and Hideki Matsuyama dual forecast
1pt 10-1 bet365

Story so far

World number one Scottie Scheffler is joint-leader of the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a round to go at Bay Hill in Florida. Scheffler, 13-2 favourite at the outset, is no bigger than 6-4 with 18 holes to play.

Scheffler switched to a new mallet-headed putter this week and he has a positive strokes-gained-putting statistic through 54 holes. His putting has improved as the week has worn on and he was the tenth best putter in the field in round three.

Shane Lowry, who blew a golden winning opportunity in the Cognizant Classic last week, is tied for the lead with Scheffler at nine under par. Lowry is a 4-1 chance for a first Bay Hill success.

Will Zalatoris looked set to take the lead into Sunday, going 11 under par through 13 holes of the third round, but he dropped four shots from there to the clubhouse to fall two shots behind.

The final twoball of Scheffler and Lowry is scheduled to tee off at 5.35pm UK and Ireland time. A sunny afternoon with moderate breezes is forecast.

Arnold Palmer Invitational leaderboard

-9 Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry
-8 Wyndham Clark
-7 Will Zalatoris, Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama
-6 Harris English
-5 Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns, Max Homa
-4 Justin Lower, Tom Hoge, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Justin Thomas

Best odds for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

6-4 S Scheffler, 4 S Lowry, 7 W Clark, 10 W Zalatoris, 12 H Matsuyama, 16 R Henley, 18 R McIlroy, 25 H English, 33 S Burns, 40 M Homa, 80 J Thomas, 100 bar

Arnold Palmer Invitational final-round predictions

Rory McIlroy suggested the answer to Scottie Scheffler's putting problems may be a switch to a mallet-headed flat-stick – and heeding that advice has given the American a great chance of getting back to winning ways.

Scheffler has been going through hell on the greens, wasting his peerless approach-play, but a gradual improvement through three rounds at Bay Hill with his new equipment will greatly encourage his supporters.

Scheffler won the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2022 and is the man to beat with 18 holes to play at a drying and breezy Bay Hill. He was fourth in his title defence last year.

Shane Lowry has a much poorer record at Bay Hill than he does at PGA National, where he folded from contention in the Cognizant Classic, which finished on Monday due to bad weather.

Of course, golf is not an exact science, but at a venue he relishes Lowry has just been obliterated by Austin Eckroat, so it is difficult to have faith in the Irishman overcoming Scheffler at Bay Hill. Lowry's Bay Hill form figures prior to this week were MC-MC-MC-MC-67.

High-rollers will be eyeing up the 6-4 Scheffler, but whether those odds represent value is open to question. Undoubtedly, he deserves favouritism – the Sawgrass champion is massively proven in assignments such as this – but he has not won an official PGA Tour title for a year. Any early setbacks on the greens could easily rock Scheffler.

This feels like a pivotal moment for Scheffler's season. Win a Signature event first time out with the mallet in hand and confidence will course through his veins just before Majors season. Endure another miserable Sunday on the greens and let another trophy slip away – and cement will be oozing around self-doubt as the lightning-fast dancefloors of Augusta loom large.

Given that pressure, preference at the prices is for Hideki Matsuyama, who can approach this mission with loose shoulders. The Japanese ace carded one of the best rounds in PGA Tour history to win the Genesis Invitational last time out, closing with a 62 for a three-shot triumph.

When Matsuyama is fit and firing, he has few equals, and from just two shots behind with 18 holes to play at Bay Hill, he seems extremely dangerous. He is an experienced Bay Hill performer, with four top-25 finishes under his belt, and the way he finished round three was eyecatching.

While the wheels came off the likes of Will Zalatoris down the stretch on Saturday, Matsuyama held firm, with birdies at the 16th and 17th holes followed by a gutsy par at 18, where he got up and down from 93 yards. That finishing flourish has set hotshot Hideki up to challenge for a tenth PGA Tour title. He lives in Florida and a special day could be coming.

Anyone who beats Scheffler will feel they have a great chance of becoming Arnold Palmer Invitational champion, so the Matsuyama-Scheffler dual forecast appeals as an additional bet to an each-way (fifth the first three) investment in Matsuyama. Two former Masters champions could be set to joust for Bay Hill glory.

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