Racing Post Mexico Open first-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the Mexico Open

Sky Sports Main Event and Golf, 9pm Thursday

Best bets

Kurt Kitayama to beat Rasmus Hojgaard
1pt 11-10 bet365

Alex Smalley to beat Kevin Yu
1pt Evs bet365

Mexico Open first-round predictions

This week's Mexico Open is just the sort of tournament in which rising European star Rasmus Hojgaard should be looking to make his mark, but the Danish hopeful could find it difficult to get last week's disaster at the Genesis Invitational out of his system.

Hojgaard finished last at Torrey Pines following rounds of 82 and 77 and while he was 12th in Phoenix the week before, that has been his only top-20 finish in his last nine Stateside outings, so it is easy to get carried away even though he faces a low-grade field this week.

He may not make a huge impression, though, and he looks opposable in a match bet with Kurt Kitayama, even though his form has been no great shakes either.

The American finished with a flourish as a closing 67 pushed him up to 49th in Phoenix last time out and he showed he can play strongly in weaker tournaments during the autumn when he was fifth at the Zozo Championship in Japan a week after he was ninth at the Shriners Open.

He tied for second, a shot behind Jon Rahm in this tournament three years ago and he can get the better of Hojgaard, who has a bit to prove.

Kevin Yu has steadied the ship by finishing 16th and 17th in the last two weeks, but he has not posted a top-ten finish in his ten outings since he claimed the Sanderson Farms Championship in October.

Poor starts in his last few tournaments have not helped his cause and he may be unable to keep up with Alex Smalley, who looks a strong title contender this week.

Smalley missed the cut at last month's Farmers Insurance Open, but his 2025 form figures of 16-11-21 demonstrate he is in solid form and he could take something from the sixth place he secured at Vidanta Vallarta three years ago.

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