Northern Trust: PGA Tour betting predictions & tips for first FedEx Cup playoff

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 12.30pm Thursday

The FedEx Cup playoffs have undergone a major revamp this season with the PGA Tour ditching the Dell Technologies Championship and condensing the season-ending series into a three-week window featuring this week’s event, the Northern Trust at Liberty National, the BMW Championship at Medinah and finally the Tour Championship at East Lake.

As has been the case in previous seasons, the top 125 players on the US points list are eligible for the Northern Trust but, where the top 100 would normally progress to the Dell, only the top 70 will make next week’s BMW before the traditional 30-runner field lines up at East Lake.

The days of the Tour Championship winner failing to net the mega-money bonus, which stands at $15m this year, are also over as the victor will indeed take the spoils in the final event as the leaderboard is weighted in favour of the FedEx Cup standings. Whoever tops the points list after the BMW will start the Tour Championship at ten under par, the player in second will start at eight under, and so on down to the players at 26 to 30, who begin at level par.

All but three of the 125 tee it up at Liberty National this week. Paul Casey is eighth in the points list and skips the Northern Trust while 85th-ranked Henrik Stenson and Sam Burns (89th) have effectively ended their seasons by missing out.

Major phenomenon Brooks Koepka tops the points list and also heads the betting in New Jersey. A US PGA Championship winner across the border in New York this year, brilliant Brooks has every chance of trousering the FedEx Cup millions, but while his Liberty National claims are hard to ignore, there are others who appeal at bigger prices.

Joe Champion’s top tip
Justin Rose 20-1

Justin Rose scored a clutch birdie at the final hole to claim the FedEx Cup bonus last season at the expense of Tour Championship winner Tiger Woods and he looks sure to be involved again over the next three weeks.

It hasn’t been a particularly remarkable year for Rose, who has spent much of 2019 jostling with Koepka and Dustin Johnson in the battle to be world number one, but the Englishman is tenth in the FedEx Cup standings and has played some of his best golf in recent weeks.

Tied third at the US Open in June, Rose went to the Open where he started the final round in a share of fourth place only for the Royal Portrush weather conditions to get the better of him. He certainly wasn’t the only casualty in Northern Ireland that afternoon and an 11th-placed finish at the WGC-St Jude Invitational should have him spot on for the Liberty National assignment.

The New Jersey layout, which affords stunning views of the Manhattan skyline, is built for ball-strikers and Rose is one of the best on the US Tour circuit.

In 2013, strokes gained tee-to-green was a key statistic which, out of those who played all four rounds, was led by Rose as he finished in a tie for second behind Adam Scott. The 39-year-old has not been so precise in his usually top-notch iron-play this year but still ranks among the best while seven of his ten PGA Tour wins have come on the bentgrass greens which he will encounter in New Jersey, including his 2013 US Open victory at Merion.

Next bet
Adam Scott 45-1

Aussie ace Scott will have fond memories of Liberty National after his victory at the 2013 Barclays and, while he was part of the International team that was stuffed by the USA in the 2017 Presidents Cup, he did at least come away from New Jersey having taken down Koepka in Sunday singles action.

Scotty is winless since the 2016 WGC-Cadillac Championship but has been a regular presence on leaderboards throughout the 2018-19 season. A missed cut at the Open and 41st at the St Jude Invitational is not ideal but the 39-year-old had previously finished in the top ten at both the US PGA Championship and the US Open and he ranks seventh in strokes gained tee-to-green.

The Northern Trust has alternated between a number of courses in recent years but is always played in either New York or New Jersey and Scott has finished in the top five in three of his last five appearances in the event.

Other selections
Gary Woodland 60-1
Billy Horschel 45-1

Gary Woodland also featured heavily on the 2013 leaderboard at Liberty National and the US Open champion, who is fifth in the FedEx standings, is taken to bounce back to form now that the season is reaching a climax.

Woodland has not always looked great when in contention but the Kansas man was nerveless in seeing off Koepka’s challenge at Pebble Beach and he should be highly motivated after his wife Gabby gave birth to twin daughters last week.

The 35-year-old had previously played well when finishing tied for eighth at the US PGA at Bethpage Black and he now looks like he firmly belongs in this company. Another player with a superb tee-to-green game, Woodland looks primed to make a bold bid at becoming the $15m man.

Billy Horschel knows what it’s like to win the FedEx Cup, coming from nowhere to pocket $10m in 2014 after he won both the BMW and the Tour Championship, and the accurate Floridian should not be ignored following two fine displays at the St Jude and last week’s Wyndham Championship.

Horschel finished ninth at TPC Southwind and sixth at Sedgefield despite being two over after three holes. He closed with a 64 in North Carolina and is another player who takes high rank with regards to ball-striking.

Players to note

Tiger Woods

The Masters champ has barely been sighted since his Augusta heroics, turning out only in the other three Majors and the Memorial Tournament. A missed cut at the Open sparked renewed rumours about the state of his troubled back.

Rory McIlroy

Arguably the most consistent player of 2019 outside the Majors and a wonderful putting display hauled him into the lead before the final round of the St Jude Invitational last time out. The flat stick went cold on Sunday, however, and his ball-striking has not been at its best in recent tournaments.

Webb Simpson

Has finished second in three of his last five tournaments and is wonderfully consistent but he is just struggling to get over the line at present. Should contend again.

Jon Rahm

The Spanish powerhouse has an excellent record on coastal tracks and is one who should go well on the Hudson. Has not won an individual US Tour event since January 2018, however, and is a skinny price with that factored in.

Staking plan
J Rose
3pts each-way 20-1 Sky Bet
Bet on Justin Rose with William Hill here

A Scott
2pts each-way 45-1 Sky Bet
Bet on Adam Scott with William Hill here

G Woodland
1pt each-way 60-1 Sky Bet
Bet on Adam Scott with Coral here

B Horschel
1pt each-way 45-1 Betfair, Boyles, Paddy Power, Sky Bet
Bet on Billy Horschel with Coral here

Northern Trust course guide

Course Liberty National, Jersey City, New Jersey
Prize money $9.25m ($1.62m to the winner)
Length 7,370 yards Par 71 Field 122
Course records - 72 holes 273 Adam Scott (2013) 18 holes Kevin Chappell (2013)

When to bet 12.10pm Thursday

Where to watch Featured groups coverage on Sky Sports Golf from 12.15pm Thursday, full coverage from 6.30pm

Time difference New Jersey is five hours behind the UK & Ireland

Last week - Wyndham Championship 1 JT Poston (100-1), 2 W Simpson (10-1), 3 Byeong Hun An (55-1), 4 V Hovland (30-1), 5 S W Kim (150-1)

Course overview Liberty National was designed by Bob Cupp and Tom Kite in 2006. It was built on the site of a former Hudson River landfill and boasts spectacular views of the New York City skyline and the Statue of Liberty. The venue staged this event when it was known as the Barclays in 2009 and 2013.

Heath Slocum won in 2009 with a nine-under-par total, then major alterations were made to the track before Adam Scott triumphed four years later at 11 under. The layout is exposed and typically windswept given its proximity to the Hudson, featuring Kentucky Bluegrass rough and small bentgrass greens.

A ball-striker's test, Liberty National features three reachable par fives and finishes on a testing par four that can be especially tough when the wind starts to blow. The course also hosted the 2017 Presidents Cup where Steve Stricker’s USA team dominated the Internationals 19-11.

Story of last year Bryson DeChambeau shot a sublime third-round 63 to take the lead at Ridgewood Country Club and exuded control throughout the final round to run out a four-shot winner from Tony Finau.

Weather forecast Rain is expected to add further moisture to the fairways on Wednesday but the tournament should see better conditions with sun forecast throughout all four days. Wind speeds should be lighter than in 2009 and 2013 which is likely to contribute to lower scoring.

Type of player suited to the challenge Liberty National provides a decent test, both from tee to green and on the undulating dancefloors, so every department of the game will be examined. The greens are small so accurate ball-strikers are likely to dominate the leaderboard.

Key attribute Accuracy

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