Jon Rahm should bank juicy cheques and land first Race to Dubai title

Palmer's top tip
Jon Rahm 10-1
Francesco Molinari comfortably won the Race to Dubai last season despite playing in only 12 counting tournaments and not teeing up in a regulation European Tour event until the end of May.

It is clearer than ever that performing well at the most prestigious gatherings is the key to Race to Dubai success and that the lesser tournaments have little bearing on who ends up on top of the European money standings.

Molinari won the BMW PGA Championship, the Tour's flagship event, and the Open Championship. Two victories, banking €2,620,781, were topped up by solid efforts in the other three Majors – 20th spot in the Masters, 25th in the US Open and sixth in the US PGA. And runner-up honours in the Italian Open Rolex Series event also helped his cause.

Aside from that, Molinari did little else in RTD-counting tournaments. His WGC performances were humdrum – form figures of 25-17-39-43 – but that did not matter as the Italian cruised to RTD glory, with Tommy Fleetwood a distant second.

Across the pond, prize money is consistently juicy on the US Tour, and regulation victories count for plenty. On the European Tour, though, winning the RTD without making waves in Majors or WGCs is incredibly difficult so punters should focus on players who can be considered genuine contenders for 2019 Major glory.

Only two players are a single-figure price for the RTD – English duo Fleetwood and Justin Rose – but both could suffer form dips in the year to come due to equipment issues. The 9-2 Fleetwood and 8-1 Rose provides zero appeal.

The success of Fleetwood has come using clubs made by Nike, who no longer produce golf equipment, and at some stage the Southport lad is going to have to sign for a new company. He has spent the second half of this year begging Paul Casey to sell him his spare set of Nike VR Pro irons, but Casey refused, calling the blades “as rare as rocking horse poo”.

Fleetwood knows that 99 per cent of his rivals can head to a truck at the venues – ones for staff of TaylorMade, Callaway, PING, Titleist, Mizuno, etc – if they needs club adjustments or replacements. But he has to pray no harm comes to his trusty Nike tools. It is an unsustainable situation and 2019 may be the moment Fleetwood decides enough is enough.

Rose may also find his form suffers as he messes with his bag. His TaylorMade contract has expired and Japanese company Honma have apparently lured the world number two in a big-money deal. Rose has had a 20-year association with TaylorMade, so this is a huge leap of faith.

Reports from the circuit suggest Rose will start the new year with Honma irons in his bag. He is apparently more reluctant to ditch his TaylorMade driver, woods and ball, but will doubtless come under more pressure from Honma as the year wears on.

Much better value than the two RTD market leaders is Jon Rahm, who looks set for a glorious 2019. All the Majors and all the WGCs are on his agenda while the Irish Open and a Spanish Open title defence also seem likely to be in his plans. The compression of the US Tour schedule, which finishes before September, means Rahm may choose to attend the BMW PGA Championship, the Italian Open and the French Open before his annual DP World Tour Championship visit.

Rahm closed 2018 with a dominant display in the Hero World Challenge, signing off with a 65 to crush an elite field by four shots, and there is every reason to believe the Spanish brute will be among the men challenging for the number-one ranking throughout the year ahead.

It is not difficult to imagine Rahm going extremely close to the Green Jacket at Augusta in April – he finished fourth in the Masters last year – and victory in the first Major of the season would set up this birdie machine wonderfully for a crack at a first RTD title at the end of November. Bet365 have the best each-way terms of the firms going 10-1.

Next best
Thomas Pieters 66-1
A World Cup victory alongside his pal Thomas Detry for Belgium last month has put the spring back in the step of Thomas Pieters, and this class act can kick on by enjoying a barnstorming 2019.

Mental problems – being too hard on himself and expecting constant perfection – have held Pieters back. There was maturity on show in Melbourne, though – he led Detry superbly in their World Cup campaign – and Pieters, who turns 27 in January, is ready to do justice to his great talent.

From a position of 71st in the world rankings, Pieters needs a fast start to the year to gain access to the biggest events, and the way he closed 2018, with three top-20s prior to the World Cup, suggests that will happen. He has three top-fives to his name in Abu Dhabi, so can ping the lids there in the next European Tour event and quickly forge his way into the world's top 50.

The Belgian, fifth in the 2017 WGC-Mexico Championship, fourth in the 2017 Masters, fourth in the 2017 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and sixth in the 2018 US PGA, is a proven contender for the biggest prizes and was the star of the 2016 Ryder Cup.

Other selection
Louis Oosthuizen 40-1
Rahm, Pieters and Louis Oosthuizen are three names who fit naturally on Major leaderboards. Since winning the Open in 2010, Oosthuizen has finished runner-up four times in Major competition, including playoff defeats in the 2012 Masters and the 2015 Open. It is hardly surprising given the quality of his ball-striking – this sweet swinger finds fairways and greens for fun.

Putting had become a bugbear of Oosthuizen over the last couple of years, but he has tinkered with his technique in recent months and made significant strides. A new pre-shot routine and a more relaxed stance has paid immediate dividends, helping him win the South African Open for the first time. That emotional victory – a six-shot romp – has filled Oosthuizen with confidence.

Injury problems appear to be behind the South African and he will be licking his lips for the year ahead. The world number 26 already lies fourth in the RTD standings and is well capable of remaining in contention all the way to the finishing post. BoyleSports and Sky Bet have the best each-way terms of the firms going 40-1.

Recommendations
J Rahm
3pts each-way 10-1 bet365
T Pieters
1pt each-way 66-1 BoyleSports, Sky Bet
L Oosthuizen
1pt each-way 40-1 BoyleSports, Sky Bet

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