Steve Palmer's free Spanish Open predictions & golf betting tips: our top tipster has five fancies in Madrid

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When to bet on the Spanish Open

By 7.30am on Thursday

Where can I watch the Spanish Open 

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Spanish Open predictions

Julien Guerrier
2pts each-way 75-1 Betfair, Power

Alex Fitzpatrick
2pts each-way 45-1 bet365

Alejandro Del Rey
1.5pts each-way 80-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Gavin Green
1.5pts each-way 80-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
1pt each-way 100-1 bet365

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Steve Palmer's Spanish Open preview

The physical and mental state of Jon Rahm is difficult to assess going into the Spanish Open, so there is no urge to back the favourite at extremely short odds. He withdrew from the LIV Golf Team Championship last Saturday morning with "flu-like symptoms". The illness must have been significant given his Legion XIII side were favourites to win that mega-bucks event.

Mentally Rahm seems under strain. He says he is yet to pay his DP World Tour fines for LIV Golf participation, so is fortunate to have gained access to his national Open. Throw in the fact his wife is about to give birth and Rahm has a lot on his mind as he bids to win a fourth Spanish Open title.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Julien Guerrier 75-1

Rahm and the rest of the market principals make no appeal for the Spanish Open and preference is for a five-pronged each-way attack at healthy prices.

This tournament was won by a French maiden last year and history may be about to repeat itself – Julien Guerrier can follow Matthieu Pavon into the DP World Tour winner's enclosure. Guerrier has been playing solid golf, making nine consecutive cuts until missing weekend employment by a shot at Wentworth last time out.

That breather will have freshened up Guerrier nicely for one of his favourite Tour stops. He has teed up at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid twice before, finishing third on his debut in the 2021 Spanish Open, then sixth on his return last year.

Round scores of 66, 66, 66, 69, 72, 63, 67, 67 highlight how comfortable Guerrier is on this terrain. He was 18 under par for the final 54 holes last year – nobody outscored him from Friday through Sunday – and both his Spanish Open title tilts have come after a spell of poor form.

Guerrier was world number 608 going into the 2021 Spanish Open, he had just missed the cut in the Dunhill Links and he had not registered a top-ten finish all year. Going into last year's event, he had just missed three cuts in a row, carding an 81 at Wentworth.

This time, the 39-year-old is in fine fettle. He has won twice on the Challenge Tour and appears ready for his DPWT breakthrough.

Next best bet

Alex Fitzpatrick 45-1

Another DPWT maiden will be sensing his opportunity. Alex Fitzpatrick has been steadily improving over the last couple of years, winning on the Challenge Tour last summer before becoming a regular threat in the higher grade.

Over the last month or so, Fitzpatrick has been impressive, finishing sixth in the Czech Masters, 12th in the British Masters, sixth at Crans-sur-Sierre and ninth in the Irish Open. He missed the cut by a shot at Wentworth, getting a weekend breather before Madrid, where he finished 20th on his debut last year after an eight-under-par weekend. 

Other selections

Alejandro Del Rey 80-1
Gavin Green 80-1
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen 100-1

Rahm may be upstaged by his compatriot Alejandro Del Rey, who was born in Madrid and can be guaranteed a warm welcome from the galleries. The ultra-attacking 26-year-old, who once carded a round of 58 on the Challenge Tour, was one of Spain's best juniors. He won on the Alps Tour in 2020, then on the Challenge Tour in 2022.

Del Rey has been threatening a DPWT breakthrough. He fired a second-round 62 on his way to 15th place in the Scottish Open in July – a Rolex Series event – then set the early pace in the Irish Open the week before last. He has been picking up healthy cheques on unsuitable courses – Crans, County Down, Wentworth – and can flourish on an ideal layout in his homeland this week. He carded four rounds in the 60s for 17th place last year.

Gavin Green is another attacking golfer who can make merry from Friday onwards. He was in poor form coming to this event last year – he had missed his last two cuts – but went 11 under par for his final three rounds to finish 28th. The Malaysian ace has enjoyed a better build-up this time, finishing ninth in the British Masters at the start of this month.

Green missed the Wentworth cut by a shot, but left Surrey encouraged, having carded a Friday 67. Only four players in the BMW PGA field outscored Green in round two. He has won on the Asian Tour and an overdue DPWT success may be coming at the age of 30.

Complete the staking plan with Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, who has won three times on the Challenge Tour this season to gain automatic promotion to the DPWT. The 25-year-old Dane nearly won in Spain in May – he was runner-up in the Challenge de Espana – and he was 19th in the Danish Championship on the DPWT a month ago.

A missed cut by a shot at Royal County Down last time out is easy to forgive and the much more suitable Club de Campo should see a barnstorming Spanish Open debut for Neergaard-Petersen.

Course guide for the Spanish Open

• Course Club de Campo Villa de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
• Prize money $3.25m ($541,775 to the winner)
• Length 7,154 yards
• Par 71 – three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 144 – the cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Tommy Fleetwood (12), Jon Rahm (15), Aaron Rai (20), Matthieu Pavon (26), Shane Lowry (29)
• Course records - 72 holes 259 Jon Rahm (2023) 18 holes 60 Ivo Giner (2005 Madrid Open)
• Course winners taking part Jon Rahm (twice), Rafa Cabrera Bello, Matthieu Pavon
• When to bet By 7.30am on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1pm on Thursday
• Time difference Spain is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland
• Last week – BMW Championship 1 B Horschel (22-1), T2 R McIlroy (6-1), T Lawrence (40-1), T4 M Baldwin (400-1), M Manassero (33-1), A Rai (18-1), T7 U Coussaud (400-1), N Norgaard (90-1), A Rozner (150-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview The Javier Arana designed Black Course at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid has hosted 15 European Tour events in the modern era – the Spanish Open in 1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023, the Madrid Open from 2001-2005, and the Madrid Masters in 2008. The average winning score in the last four Spanish Opens there has been 22.25 under par. The tree-lined, undulating track has small greens and some stunning views over the city of Madrid
• Story of last year Matthieu Pavon upstaged local hero Jon Rahm – the Frenchman claiming a maiden DP World Tour title with a four-shot success
• Weather forecast A windy Thursday should be replaced by three days of calm. Sunny for the most part, temperatures peaking at 22C
• Type of player suited to the challenge Club de Campo can be overwhelmed, with the par-fives there for the taking and some extremely short par-fours, so a hot putter and three low rounds are probably going to be needed for success once the Thursday winds disappear
• Key attribute Touch/putting

Steve Palmer's Spanish Open key stat

Three of the last five Spanish Opens have been won by Jon Rahm

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