Steve Palmer's free Nedbank Golf Challenge predictions & golf betting tips

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When to bet on the Nedbank Golf Challenge

By 5.30am on Thursday

Where can I watch the Nedbank Golf Challenge

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 9am on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Nedbank Golf Challenge predictions

Tom McKibbin
4pts each-way 22-1 Betfair, Power

Nicolai Hojgaard
3pts each-way 22-1 Betfair, Power

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Steve Palmer's Nedbank Golf Challenge preview

Corey Conners, who has won just twice as a professional and turns 33 next month, is an unappealing favourite for the Nedbank Challenge. The Florida-based Canadian, twice victorious in the Texas Open, is difficult to trust elsewhere. Edgy in contention and making his Nedbank debut this week, the market leader is easy to pass over.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout won the South African Open at this venue in 2020, but that was a weak field during Covid times, and he had won the Alfred Dunhill Championship the previous week. He has much more to beat this time and has not arrived in such great form.

Defending champion Max Homa left this event as world number seven last year, without a care in the world. The American returns as world No. 35 and with his mind cluttered by swing thoughts. 

Homa has been generally poor since the Masters in April and sacked his swing coach after finishing last in the St Jude Championship in August.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Tom McKibbin 22-1

Young gun Tom McKibbin showed nerves of steel on the 72nd hole of the DP World Tour Championship last time out to secure a PGA Tour card for next season. The 21-year-old needed a birdie to confirm his Stateside ticket and he hit two brilliant shots to reach the green in two at the long par-five.

McKibbin two putted to make it a wonderful day for Northern Ireland – his friend Rory McIlroy lifted the silverware in Dubai while McKibbin took his career to the next level – and a fortnight of celebrations can be followed by further joy in South Africa this week.

McKibbin loves teeing up in this part of the world. His first full season as a professional was 2022 and he started his Challenge Tour campaign that year in South Africa. Third place in the Cape Town Open came when he was ranked 1,156th in the world, then he followed up with seventh spot in the Jonsson Workwear Open to rocket up to world No. 611. Performing well in South Africa laid the foundation for his pro career.

The Belfast-born six-footer has played in 14 tournaments in Africa as a pro – four on the Challenge Tour and ten on the DPWT – and he has made the cut in all of them. Eight have resulted in a top-20 finish. He was 33rd on his Nedbank Challenge debut 12 months ago.

Gary Player CC is a drivers' track and McKibbin is awesome off the tee. He has finished tenth and 11th in his last two starts, in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, concluding a rock-solid season. He was a playoff loser in the Italian Open in June and can lift his first trophy of the year on Sunday.

Next best bet

Nicolai Hojgaard 22-1

Like McKibbin, Nicolai Hojgaard is hungry for silverware. The Dane has not lifted any this year and is keen to continue his streak of winning a DPWT event in each of the previous three years. The DPWT Championship in November last year was his last success and he was gutted he could not defend that title last month, having failed to qualify.

Hojgaard can take out those frustrations on GPCC. From the French Open onwards he has rediscovered his sparkle, with form figures of 18-20-9-13. The 13th place in Abu Dhabi came despite a Thursday 71 – he closed with rounds of 65, 66, 68, looking right back to his best, before taking three weeks off to recharge his batteries.

Hojgaard finished runner-up in last year's Nedbank. His 15-under-par total would have been enough to top the leaderboard in the previous five editions of the Nedbank, but he was unfortunate to run into an inspired Homa.

Hojgaard's previous efforts at GPCC were poor, but down to a cavalier attitude. He was more conservative off the tee last year – his course management was superb – and an equally professional approach can be expected this week with so much on the line.

As well as his yearly winning streak, the 23-year-old has strong motivation to improve his world ranking. Starting 2025 in the top 50 of the world rankings would secure a Masters invitation. Hojgaard tees off as world No. 58 on Thursday.

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Course guide for the Nedbank Golf Challenge

• Course Gary Player Country Club, Sun City, South Africa
• Prize money $6m ($1m to the winner)
• Length 7,819 yards
• Par 72 – four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 66 (no cut)
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Max Homa (35), Corey Conners (42), Thriston Lawrence (47), Christiaan Bezuidenhout (55), Mackenzie Hughes (57)
• Course records - 72 holes 263 Ernie Els (1999) 18 holes 62 Lee Westwood (2011)
• Course winners taking part Danny Willett, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Max Homa
• When to bet By 7.21am on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 9am on Thursday
• Time difference South Africa is two hours ahead of the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Australian Open 1 R Johnston (150-1), 2 C Luck (125-1), T3 M Leishman (11-1), J Stubbs (500-1), T5 L Herbert (14-1), W Ding (60-1), K Aphibarnrat (300-1), H Crowe (250-1), J Niemann (9-2), E Smylie (50-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview Gary Player Country Club, which hosted the Million Dollar Challenge and the Nedbank Challenge from 1981 to 2019, staged the South African Open in 2020 (December) and 2021, then the Nedbank returned in 2022. The Dimension-Data Pro-Am (1996 to 2009), the Sun City Challenge (2007-11 and 2016-21), the Royal Swazi Open (2020), the Blue Label Challenge (2021-2022, 2024), the Vodacom Origins of Golf Final (2022), the SunBet Challenge (2022, 2024) and the Gary & Vivienne Player Invitational (2024) are low-grade Sunshine Tour events also staged at this venue. The course is enormous, but a variety of tees can be used to alter the yardage if bad weather makes the full length unplayable. The layout boasts kikuyu fairways and fast, clover-shaped, bentgrass greens surrounded by bunkers, swales and mounds. Some extremely low scores were carded many years ago – Padraig Harrington shot an 11-under-par 61 in 2001 playing with preferred lies, while Ernie Els (25 under par in 1999) and Nick Price (24 under in 1993) have also butchered Player's design. The lengthening of the course, though, has made life tougher for visitors. The layout is at altitude, so the ball flies further than usual
• Story of last year American raider Max Homa cruised to a four-shot victory for his first overseas title
• Weather forecast Hot, humid and stormy, with temperatures reaching 41C. Light to moderate breezes, peaking on the first afternoon
• Type of player suited to the challenge Quality ball-strikers have asserted themselves on the Gary Player Country Club over the last decade - churning out greens in regulation is the key to success
• Key attribute Power

Steve Palmer's Nedbank Golf Challenge key stat

Nine of the last 12 Nedbank winners have been European.

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