Steve Palmer's free Andalucia Masters predictions & golf betting tips

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When to bet on the Andalucia Masters

By 7.45am on Thursday

Where can I watch the Andalucia Masters

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's Andalucia Masters predictions

Rasmus Hojgaard
3.5pts each-way 16-1 general

Thorbjorn Olesen
3pts each-way 20-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Tom McKibbin
2.5pts each-way 28-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Gavin Green
1.5pts each-way 60-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

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Steve Palmer's Andalucia Masters preview

Jon Rahm is no bigger than 11-4 to win the Andalucia Masters, but he has not triumphed in a non-LIV event since the 2023 Masters at Augusta and looks a poor-value favourite this week. The Spaniard was humbled by Angel Hidalgo in their national Open last month and Rahm will have noted the lack of crowd support for him in their playoff.

Rahm, a Basque from the north of Spain, is teeing up in the south this week with a potentially questionable attitude. His reason for playing is to fill his quota of DP World Tour events with regards to becoming eligible for Ryder Cup qualification. He may just be going through the motions on his course debut.

Rahm's wife gave birth to their first daughter at the end of last month. Last week was his first full week off since the arrival of little Alaia, so it seems likely he completely switched off mentally from golf after the Dunhill Links. With steely focus required for a windy first day in Andalucia, it is difficult to trust Rahm at such short odds.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rasmus Hojgaard 16-1

If the favourite flops in Sotogrande this week, the most likely candidate to take advantage is arguably Rasmus Hojgaard, who is a five-time DP World Tour champion at the age of 23.

It is easy to get blasé about the talent of the Hojgaard twins, who have been prolific champions on their home circuit since arriving on the scene, and both can make their presence felt in Spain this week. Preference is for Rasmus, who has been more consistently impressive than his brother Nicolai in recent weeks.

Rasmus upset the local hero in the Irish Open a month ago, edging out Rory McIlroy with some late brilliance, and the Danish dude can do a similar job in Sotogrande. Hojgaard started the year well, then had a mid-season wobble due to fitness issues, before finding top gear from June onwards. There were plenty of eyecatching performances around his Royal County Down triumph.

Last week Hojgaard tied for 13th in the French Open, carding four under-par rounds, with nothing worse than a bogey on his scorecard. He endured a cold putter over the weekend in Paris, but was swinging superbly. With a bit more luck on the greens in Spain, this class act seems a surefire contender. He tied for 26th place in last year's event, gaining course experience.

Next best bet

Thorbjorn Olesen 20-1

There seems potential for a Danish one-two this week, with Thorbjorn Olesen looking equally in control of his game. Thunderbear tied for second in the French Open on Sunday, having carded four rounds in the 60s. He was second for greens in regulation on Saturday and fourth on Sunday, swinging with supreme confidence.

Olesen is typically one of the best putters in the business, so he looks the complete package for Sotogrande. He finished ninth in last year's Andalucia Masters, despite opening with a 73, so can hit the ground running.

Olesen was 12th in the Dunhill Links Championship the week before last, winning the pro-am pairs competition with Dermot Desmond, as well as 12th in the Irish Open a month ago. A ninth DPWT title would come as no surprise on Sunday.

Other selections

Tom McKibbin 28-1
Gavin Green 60-1

Rising star Tom McKibbin has all the tools required to rip this week's layout to shreds. With four par-five holes and three short par-fours at which to gun, the 21-year-old Northern Irishman should set up countless birdie opportunities.

McKibbin, fourth in the Qatar Masters at the start of the year, sixth in the KLM Open, second in the Italian Open and tenth in the BMW PGA at Wentworth last month, tied for 27th place in the French Open on Sunday, closing with a spectacular 64. He was eight under par for his final 15 holes in Paris, putting magnificently.

McKibbin closed with a 69 for 34th place on his Andalucia Masters debut last year and a second DPWT title on Sunday seems entirely feasible.

Complete a four-pronged attack with Gavin Green, who is playing much better than the bare form suggests and can threaten a maiden DPWT success. He missed the cut by a shot at Wentworth, but was excellent in round two, then he missed the cut on the mark again in the Spanish Open. Last week a share of 13th place in Paris came courtesy of some majestic iron play.

Green made par or better at 70 of his 72 holes of the French Open. He did not drop a shot on the back nine all week and would probably have won the tournament had his putter not been ice-cold throughout. The Malaysian is typically a strong putter – he was the third-best putter on the DPWT last season – so expect better on the greens this week. He was 56th in last year's Andalucia Masters after arriving in dismal form.

Course guide for the Andalucia Masters

Course Real Club de Golf Sotogrande, San Roque, Andalucia, Spain
Prize money $3.25m ($541,775 to the winner)
Length 7,101 yards
Par 72 – four par-five holes; ten par-fours; four par-threes
Field 126 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Jon Rahm (14), Thriston Lawrence (48), Nicolai Hojgaard (54), Matt Wallace (66), Rasmus Hojgaard (63)
Course records - 72 holes 272 Adrian Meronk (2023) 18 holes 64 James Morrison (2023)
When to bet By 7.45am on Thursday
When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1pm on Thursday
Time difference Spain is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland
Last week – French Open 1 D Bradbury (125-1), T2 Y Paul (45-1), S Bairstow (125-1), T Olesen (25-1), J Winther (100-1), T6 M Jordan (80-1), F Laporta (150-1), T8 J Veerman (125-1), G Wiebe (1,000-1)
Course type Parkland
Course overview Real Club de Golf was designed by Robert Trent Jones in 1964 and restored by Roger Rulewich and David Fleury in 2016. The course hosted the European Tour Qualifying School Finals, in tandem with San Roque Club, in 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001, taking over as Andalucia Masters venue last year. Real Club de Golf is open, exposed and undulating, with man-made lakes which give it the look of a Florida course, and the greens are fast
The story of last year Adrian Meronk claimed a fourth DP World Tour title before defecting to LIV Golf three months later
Weather forecast Sunny and pleasant, with temperatures peaking at 23C. Moderate breezes on the first day, then relatively calm from Friday onwards
Type of player suited to the challenge The fairways are generous at this track, but the greens are well guarded, so accurate approach play seems the key to success
Key attribute Accuracy

Steve Palmer's Andalucia Masters key stat

Four of the last eight editions of the Andalucia Masters have been won by a Spaniard

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For those looking for even more extensive golf coverage don't miss Palmer's extra pointers every Wednesday in the Racing Post newspaper.

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Steve PalmerRacing Post Sport

Published on 16 October 2024inDP World Tour

Last updated 14:00, 16 October 2024

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