Steve Palmer's free Abu Dhabi Championship predictions & golf betting tips

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When to bet on the Abu Dhabi Championship

By 3.17am Thursday

Where can I watch the Abu Dhabi Championship

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 3.30am Thursday

Steve Palmer's Abu Dhabi Championship predictions

Thorbjorn Olesen
4pts each-way 25-1 Betfair, Hills, Power

Grant Forrest
1pt each-way 125-1 bet365

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Steve Palmer's Abu Dhabi Championship preview

Rory McIlroy is a four-time runner-up in the Abu Dhabi Championship – a tournament he is yet to win – and the Northern Irishman has become accustomed to second-place finishes in the last few months.

McIlroy suffered a huge mental setback when missing two tiny putts down the stretch of the US Open to lose by a shot there, then he narrowly missed out on an Olympic medal, lost by a shot in the Irish Open, then lost a BMW PGA Championship playoff to a Billy Horschel eagle.

The golfing gods have been tormenting McIlroy. He lacked sparkle in the Dunhill Links last time out and it would be entirely understandable if he brought a lacklustre attitude to the Abu Dhabi Championship this week. A sixth Race to Dubai title is effectively won.

Tyrrell Hatton is not a fan of Yas Links, infamously explaining how he would love for a bomb to drop on the 18th hole. Two-year course form of 6-7 means the Dunhill Links champion deserves respect, but both McIlroy and Hatton appear short in the betting given the potential for moody performances.

Dubai-based Tommy Fleetwood is more tempting at a bigger price, but winning rarely comes easy for him, and Yas Links form figures of 48-38 are eyecatchingly poor for a player of his stature.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Thorbjorn Olesen 25-1

Dubai resident Thorbjorn Olesen has not had to travel far for the Abu Dhabi Championship, so will be jet-lag free and fresh for the fight when battle commences on Thursday. This proven desert rat has had plenty of time to prepare at the venue.

Olesen's last victory came in the Ras al Khaimah Championship at the end of January – a six-shot romp in the United Arab Emirates – and he has come close to winning other events in this region. The Dane was beaten by a shot in the 2013 Abu Dhabi Championship, he has a second and a third to his name in the Qatar Masters, and a third in the Dubai Desert Classic. He relishes Middle East golf and has enjoyed lots of success on links terrain, including on courses designed by the architect of Yas Links, Kyle Phillips.

Olesen's maiden DP World Tour title came at Verdura in the 2012 Sicilian Open – a Phillips design. Olesen won the 2015 Dunhill Links, featuring Kingsbarns, which is another Phillips creation. A closing round of 69 – bettered by only six players that day – suggested Olesen had got a handle on Yas Links by the Sunday of the 2022 Abu Dhabi Championship. He followed up with 20th place last season.

Olesen has arrived in much better form for his third crack at Yas Links. A 12th-place finish in the Irish Open in the middle of September was followed by 12th again in the Dunhill Links, second place in the French Open, and a strong weekend for seventh place in the Andalucia Masters. The 34-year-old is swinging superbly, his putting stroke is as silky as ever, and he carries determination to Abu Dhabi.

Olesen is just shy of where he needs to be to earn a PGA Tour card through the Race to Dubai Rankings. Expect Thunderbear to be all business over the next fortnight as he bids to regain PGA Tour playing rights. A ninth DP World Tour title on Sunday would do the job.

Next best bet

Grant Forrest 125-1

Three-figure prices about Grant Forrest appear disrespectful given how well the 31-year-old Scot has performed in the last couple of months. He seems a great value each-way investment.

Forrest was fifth in the Irish Open in the middle of September, then third in the Spanish Open at the end of that month. He has not missed a cut since the US Open, banking ten cheques in a row, and Yas Links suits him well.

Forrest is one of the best links exponents in the game. Yas Links is not a pure links test, but has the characteristics of one, with fast-running fairways and firm greens. The 2021 Hero Open provided a DPWT breakthrough for Forrest on a links layout and he can threaten a second success on Sunday.

Forrest finished tenth at Yas Links last year. Something similar should secure a place in the DP World Tour Championship next week. Forrest's first baby is due on the weekend of the DPWTC, so he can set his young family up for life by banking two enormous cheques over the next fortnight.

Course guide for the Abu Dhabi Championship

• Course Yas Links, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
• Prize money $9m ($1.5m to the winner)
• Length 7,425 yards
• Par 72 – four par-fives; ten par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 70 (no cut)
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (3), Tommy Fleetwood (10), Robert MacIntyre (16), Adam Scott (19), Tyrrell Hatton (21)
• Course records - 72 holes 270 Victor Perez (2023) 18 holes 62 Sami Valimaki (2023)
• When to bet By 3.17am Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports from 3.30am Thursday
• Time difference Abu Dhabi is four hours ahead of the UK and Ireland
• Course type Desert
• Course overview Abu Dhabi GC hosted the Abu Dhabi Championship for 16 years, but Yas Links took over in 2022. The event was previously staged in January. The Kyle Phillips design, opened in 2010, has eight holes running directly along the coastline of the Arabian Gulf. Fescue grass rough adds to the 'desert links' feel, although the fairways are paspalum. Phillips also designed Kingsbarns and the Dundonald Links in Scotland, The Grove in London, Verdura in Sicily and Bernardus in the Netherlands. Yas Links closes with a 646-yard par-five
• Story of last year A holed bunker shot from Victor Perez proved decisive on the Sunday of last year's Yas Links shootout, with the fortunate Frenchman edging Min Woo Lee and Sebastian Soderberg by a shot
• Weather forecast Sunny and hot, with only gentle breezes
• Type of player suited to the challenge Links-lovers enjoy the Yas Links assignment, with fast-running fairways and firm greens. In calm conditions like those forecast this week, the targets off the tee are generous and birdies plentiful. Thomas Pieters and Victor Perez, two powerful Europeans, won the first two events at Yas Links
• Key attribute Power

Steve Palmer's Abu Dhabi Championship key stat

The top four on the leaderboard last year all ranked inside the top ten for driving distance

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For those looking for even more extensive golf coverage don't miss Palmer's extra pointers every Wednesday in the Racing Post newspaper.

As well as his tips and insight you will also get expert spotlight comments for all players in our extensive PGA Tour and DP Tour price comparison grids which include course and recent form, plus Palmer's unique attribute icons to help identify the type of players likely to be suited to conditions each week.