Racing Post BMW PGA Championship predictions & golf betting tips

When to bet on the BMW PGA Championship

By 7am on Thursday

Where can I watch the BMW PGA Championship

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 8.30am on Thursday

BMW PGA Championship predictions

Matteo Manassero
2pts each-way 33-1 BoyleSports, Hills

Jordan Smith
1.5pts each-way 50-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Bernd Wiesberger
1pt each-way 66-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Frederic Lacroix
1pt each-way 90-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

BMW PGA Championship preview

Just as at June's US Open, Rory McIlroy was left to rue what might have been at the Irish Open as two late bogeys opened the door for Rasmus Hojgaard to win at Royal County Down, and the world number three needs to pick himself up for the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.

While McIlroy, who won at the Surrey track ten years ago, is playing well, he is not getting over the line and is perhaps too short a price to triumph again at one of the DP World Tour's flagship events.

Fellow Ryder Cup star Tommy Fleetwood looks equally short considering he has just two top-tens in 12 course visits, and while Adam Scott and Shane Lowry are of interest, the value may reside a little further down the list in what could prove an open contest.

Top tip

Matteo Manassero 33-1

There was a time when the name Matteo Manassero was on the lips of every European golf fan as he was tipped to become one of the game's greats.

The Italian was just 16 when he finished 13th at the 2009 Open and then became the youngest winner in European Tour history when he triumphed at the Castello Masters the following year.

Wentworth was the scene of his greatest triumph when he took the PGA Championship in 2013 in a playoff, but the boy wonder was unable to push on from there, falling back to the Alps and Challenge Tours in order to grind out a living from the game.

It seemed little would be heard of him but suddenly this year, he is back knocking on the door of the top 100 in the world rankings after being galvanised by victory at the Jonsson Workwear Open in South Africa in March.

Manassero did not rest there and has since finished fifth at the Indian Open, seventh at the KLM Open, tenth in the Italian Open, sixth at the British Masters and then third at the Irish Open last week.

The quality of his ball-striking has been particularly impressive and as a player who ranks 15th in strokes-gained: tee to green and fifth in approach, he possesses the vital skills to be successful again at Wentworth.

Back at the scene of his biggest win, Manassero can really signal his return to form and people can start talking about him as one of European golf's leading lights again.

Next best bet

Jordan Smith 50-1

Seven of the last 15 PGA Championships have been won by Englishmen and Jordan Smith could be the latest to add his name to the list.

The 31-year-old from Wiltshire, who is just above Manassero in the world rankings at 100, has come into some decent form and four solid rounds gave him a share of seventh at Royal County Down.

He was 12th in the European masters the week before when a third-round 77 curtailed his chances - his other rounds were 66, 65 and 67 - while he enjoyed a similar result in the British Masters at the Belfry.

No player has been stronger at finding greens in regulation on the DPWT this season and his rankings of 13th off the tee and from tee to green should help him make a strong challenge. He can better the 13th spot he posted in 2020, which was the best of six course efforts.

Other selections

Bernd Wiesberger 66-1

Frederic Lacroix 90-1

Two other players represent decent each-way value in this week's field.

Austria's Bernd Wiesberger has been unable to add to his tally of eight DPWT titles since returning from the LIV Tour at the start of the year, but he has been the model of consistency.

Last week's Irish Open was one to forget as he came 63rd despite a second-round 66, but that was just the fourth time in his last 15 tournaments that he has failed to finish in the top 25.

If he can get his putter going, the player who is ranked fifth from tee to green and fourth in approach can be a factor.

French challenger Frederic Lacroix won the Danish Championship at the end of August a week after finishing third at the Czech Masters and his rankings of tenth from tee to green and 19th in approach suggest he can do much better than the 65th he posted on his only course appearance two years ago.

Lacroix, who was a regular contender this time last year on the Challenge Tour, was 17th at Royal County Down where he was undone by a third-round 78, but a Sunday 66 will have lifted his spirits and he could be in for a good week.

Course guide for the BMW PGA Championship

• Course West Course, Wentworth Club, Virginia Water, Surrey
• Prize money $9m ($1.5m to the winner)
• Length 7,627 yards
• Par 72 – four par-fives, ten par-fours, four par-threes
• Field 144 The cut The top 65 plus ties make it through to the weekend
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (3), Tommy Fleetwood (12), Robert MacIntyre (16), Adam Scott (17), Aaron Rai (22)
• Course records - 72 holes 267 Byeong Hun An (2015) 18 holes 62 Robert Karlsson (2010), Thomas Bjorn (2014), Alex Noren (2017)
• Course winners taking part (strokeplay) Luke Donald (twice), Byeong Hun An, Matteo Manassero, Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari, Danny Willett, Billy Horschel, Shane Lowry, Ryan Fox
• When to bet By 7am on Thursday
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 8.30am on Thursday
• Last week – Irish Open 1 R Hojgaard 25-1, 2 R McIlroy 13-2, 3 M Manassero 50-1, 4 D Brown 175-1, T5 G Forrest 275-1, R MacIntyre 18-1
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview Wentworth is the spiritual home of what was the European Tour and has hosted the PGA Championship since 1984. It was also the home of the World Match Play from 1964 to 2007. The tournament was held in May before moving to September five years ago. The greens were reseeded with bentgrass in 2017 and the putting surfaces are fast. Trees line many fairways and a number of doglegs means the wayward driving can be troublesome. The layout closes with two par-fives, the last of which contains a greenside water hazard that can produce Sunday drama.
• Story of last year New Zealander Ryan Fox closed with a 67 to see off the challenge of home hopefuls Tyrrell Hatton and Aaron Rai by one shot
• Weather forecast The tournament should have a bright start on Thursday with a breezy afternoon, while overnight rain is expected before the final round. Temperatures around 22C.
• Type of player suited to the challenge Wentworth is a great test of course management and finding the right areas on the fairways to attack the slick greens is a must.
• Key attribute Accuracy

BMW PGA Championship key stat

Eight of last year's top nine were ranked in the top ten for strokes-gained: tee-to-green

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