BMW Championship final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the BMW Championship

Live on Sky Sports Golf, 4.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Matt Fitzpatrick to win 6.50pm twoball
1pt 21-10 Betfair, Paddy Power

Xander Schauffele top-five finish
1pt 2-1 general

Story so far

Max Homa went into the second half of the BMW Championship in the lead following a Friday 62, but he saw that slip away following a triple-bogey seven on the seventh hole of Saturday's third round.

He heads into the final round two shots behind the leading duo of world number one Scottie Scheffler, who carded a third-round 64, and former US Open champion Matt Fitzpatrick, who is yet to guarantee himself a spot in next week's Tour Championship.

Brian Harman is just one shot in arrears four weeks after he claimed the Open at Hoylake, and Sam Burns, who is four shots off the lead, will be looking to make a big impression and boost his chances of making the US Ryder Cup team after he posted a Saturday 62.

He is joined at seven under by Justin Rose and Denny McCarthy, both of whom need to move into the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings to feature next week at East Lake.

Memorial winner Viktor Hovland and reigning FedEx Cup champion Rory McIlroy are also hovering three shots behind the leaders.

BMW Championship leaderboard

-11 Scottie Scheffler, Matt Fitzpatrick
-10 Brian Harman
-9 Max Homa
-8 Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy
-7 Sam Burns, Denny McCarthy, Xander Schauffele, Justin Rose
-6 Corey Conners, Sungjae Im

Best odds for the BMW Championship

5-4 Scheffler, 4 Fitzpatrick, 7 Harman, 10 Homa, 11 McIlroy, 14 Hovland, 40 Schauffele, 50 bar

BMW Championship final-round predictions

The FedEx Cup playoffs always produce sub-plots that make them different from regular tournaments where going all out for the win is the sole approach.

Players who would be considered without a claim for outright glory still have their own agendas, and the prize of having a chance to win $18million at East Lake next week will be enough motivation for many.

However, the final pairing of Scheffler and Fitzpatrick looks the most intriguing twoball at Olympia Fields on Sunday, and it could be worth having a speculative punt on the man from Sheffield coming out on top.

Scheffler is virtually peerless when it comes from play between tee and green, and he is set to be handed a decent head start at the Tour Championship, but a first victory since he won the Players Championship in March is not guaranteed.

The issue for the Texan is on the greens and while his dancefloor performance improved on Saturday, it could be that his old issues come back to haunt him with the Illinois track expected to dry with warmer Sunday weather.

No one has gained more shots on the greens than Fitzpatrick this week and while he has posted just one top-ten finish since he won the RBC Heritage in April, he will be delighted with the way things have been going.

He started the week in 40th place in the FedEx Cup standings, so he is in no position to relax and he should gain further confidence from his sixth-placed finish the last time the BMW was held at Olympia Fields in 2020.

Scheffler is highly fancied, but at 21-10 it is worth taking the chance that Fitzpatrick can enjoy a better final round than the American.

Xander Schauffele is one of the quartet of players four shots behind, but he can make a push. He is 40-1 for outright glory but while that is asking a lot, he could force his way into the top five.

Schauffele has been the third best player between tee and green this week and ranks fourth in shots-gained: off the tee, while he put in a much better putting performance on day three.

He has not won since last year's Scottish Open, but he has pushed on from a disappointing 71 on Thursday and there is scope for further improvement.

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