Why Harry could use his head to beat Croatia

Mark Langdon
England are the more likely side to progress because small margins often decide close battles and the fact that Croatia have been to penalties twice already may have left its mark on them physically if this game also goes the distance.

It looks as if right-back Sime Vrsaljko is struggling with injury and his absence would be a hefty blow for a side that lacks defensive depth.

There have been plenty of jokes about the size of Harry Maguire’s head but that goal against Sweden had been coming. He has been getting first contact so often from the excellent set-piece routines which have been planned to perfection and delivered with precision. No goalscorer also looks a runner.

My best bet would be Croatia to make the first sub at 6-7 with 188Bet. Zlatko Dalic has flicked between two formations and seems unsure on both which has led to his first sub coming on 63 minutes (Russia), 71 (Denmark), 57 (Argentina) and 60 (Nigeria).

Leave aside the Iceland game because that was with reserves, and do the same for England’s game against Belgium, but other than in that game, Gareth Southgate has been far more settled with his first sub coming on 77 (Sweden), 81 (Colombia), 63 (Panama, with the game long over) and 68 (Tunisia).

Dan Childs's Croatia v England match preview

Bruce Millington compares the class of 1990

Didi Hamann fancies England to go all the way

Steve Davies
I’m expecting more from Croatia than we saw against Denmark or Russia though those two gruelling efforts will have taken plenty out of them. England are a confident side with far more routes to goal, and I can only see them progressing.

Harry Maguire and/or John Stones, season-ticket holders on Glenn Hoddle’s ‘love train’ and therefore massive threats, look the first-scorer value. It’s depressing to think England could win a World Cup because of set-plays but if other countries can’t defend them, so be it.

Croatia to have most booking points at 11-10 with Sky Bet is the wager that appeals most. So far this market stands at 12-5 in Croatia’s favour with England showing commendable discipline and maturity.

Expect the Croats to get ratty if they fall behind.

Ian Wilkerson
England face their toughest World Cup test to date but Croatia’s performances have not matched their results.

They have been fortunate in a few of their games and I expect the Three Lions to have enough, particularly if the defence can be strong enough to match the Croatian forwards physically.

Harry Maguire looks the goalscorer value. You would have to have spent the last month on Love Island not to know that England are a massive threat from set-pieces and the Leicester defender is the focus of attack when they get those opportunities. Croatia may be another team who struggle to contain him.

The each-way prices for Harry Maguire and John Stones to score the first goal represent good value. They should be heavily involved in England’s efforts on goal as Gareth Southgate’s side have not created much from open play and know where their strength lies.

Get exclusive free bet offers for the World Cup

Dan Childs
Croatia are tougher opponents than Sweden but I think England are on an upward curve and can take another step forward.

The Croatian midfield looks superior but possession isn’t everything – just ask Germany and Spain. England look stronger in both boxes and that could be the decisive factor.

Ivan Perisic, the second top scorer in the Croatian squad, is a threat coming in from the flank and could trouble England’s three-man defence.

England have been fantastic from set-pieces, so watch out for the aerial power of John Stones and Harry Maguire and the free-kicks of Kieran Trippier.

The match result prices look about right, so I would have focus on the first scorers. Stones and Maguire look tempting at 25-1 but the 55-1 about Trippier is massive. He is taking most of England’s free-kicks and hasn’t been far away from scoring.

Liam Flin
The key to Croatia’s game is the midfield duo of Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic but Jordan Henderson has been a consistent performer for England and looks up to the challenge of taming them. Harry Kane could once again be the key difference between the sides and Croatia could suffer slight fatigue following back-to-back shootouts. I’ll take England to qualify.

England have shown their threat from set-pieces so any one of Harry Kane, Harry Maguire or John Stones is an obvious choice but value also lies with Croatia’s Ante Rebic, who frequently gets into dangerous positions.

These sides have kept just one clean sheet between them in the knockout phase and both teams to score is a good option. VAR has prompted a flurry of penalties to be awarded in this tournament and, with both Danijel Subasic and Jordan Pickford having impressed in shootouts, backing either side to miss a penalty could be big value.

Read Racing Post Sport and racingpost.com/sport every day for the best World Cup betting coverage

Today's top sports betting stories

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips for the World Cup

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport