Northern Ireland v Italy predictions: Juve star could break down home defence

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Northern Ireland v Italy in 2022 World Cup qualifying Group C on Monday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Premier League, 7.45pm Monday

Best bet

Federico Chiesa first goalscorer
1pt 11-2 BoyleSports

Team news

Northern Ireland
Jamal Lewis is available after suspension and should start at left wing-back.

Italy
Giorgio Chiellini is not fit so Francesco Acerbi is likely to partner Leonardo Bonucci at centre-back. Roberto Mancini is also missing the injured Nicolo Zaniolo, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Ciro Immobile and Marco Verratti.

Match preview

Italy's penalty-taking prowess helped them see off Spain and England in the semi-final and final of Euro 2020 but a missed spot-kick by Jorginho against Switzerland on Friday means the Azzurri are still not assured of a place at next year's World Cup.

The 1-1 draw in Rome leaves Italy and the Swiss level on points at the top of Group C, although the European champions have a two-goal advantage on goal difference.

With Switzerland long odds-on for a home win over Bulgaria, however, there is real pressure on Italy to beat Northern Ireland at Windsor Park and Mancini is missing several senior players due to injury.

Veteran centre-back Giorgio Chiellini has joined Paris St-Germain midfielder Marco Verratti and Ciro Immobile on the sidelines, and Roma midfielders Nicolo Zaniolo and Lorenzo Pellegrini also pulled out of the squad before the clash with Switzerland.

History suggests Italy will get the job done against a Northern Ireland team who have failed to score in their six previous meetings with the Azzurri.

They lost five of those games, although the only fixture played in Northern Ireland ended in a goalless draw in qualifying for Euro 2012 and the current Italy side are not prolific in front of goal.

They scored just four times in normal time of their four Euro 2020 knockout ties and their four World Cup qualifiers since being crowned European champions included draws with Bulgaria (1-1) and Switzerland (0-0 away and 1-1 at home).

Northern Ireland were out of the running for a playoff spot before Friday's 1-0 win over Lithuania but that made it three straight clean sheets at home in qualifying after goalless draws with Bulgaria and the Swiss.

Italy will be looking to Juventus forward Federico Chiesa to help break down the home defence and he is worth backing to open the scoring at Windsor Park.

Chiesa scored 12 times for Juve in the second half of the 2020-21 campaign before claiming crucial goals against Austria in the last 16 and Spain in the semis of Euro 2020.

He was the first goalscorer in September's draw with Bulgaria, racking up six shots in the match, scored the winner for Juve against Chelsea in the Champions League, and had another six attempts in last month's Nations League win over Belgium.

Key stat

Six of Italy's last ten internationals have been draws in 90 minutes.

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